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Early Winter 2013/14

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-14, 3:50 am

Thanks Toot. I have a gut feeling of somewhat of a repeat of last year. But i am like you. Not ready to call anything yet. In winter forecasting there is always that wild card in the deck that you, me or anyone else didn't see coming. WSI say warm October, Cooler/Colder November, warm December. If this comes true, it worry me about this coming winter. We will see.
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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by snowdog on 2013-10-14, 11:13 am

From my reading, it seems a possible warm mid-november to mid-december is looking likely with a +AO dominating that time period.

That Arctic ice did relatively well this year and the ice growth is exploding over the last 2 weeks. Snow in northern Siberia is also quickly growing.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-10-14, 6:45 pm

wash wash if its not looking good this winter, personally i will be pulling for a se ridge and developing la nina conditions to perhaps create a balls to the wall severe weather event this winter...

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-15, 4:30 am

I am hoping we do have a great winter this year. I don't want to be a drag on this winter, so am keeping my fingers cross for something great like the snow of 93? Well i may have to come down to earth. But if i remember right, in 93 it was a mild winter. But living in the south you can always bet it will be a nail biter . I guess i spell that right. It been a long time since i was in school.
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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-10-15, 11:20 pm

snowdog wrote:From my reading, it seems a possible warm mid-november to mid-december is looking likely with a +AO dominating that time period.  

That Arctic ice did relatively well this year and the ice growth is exploding over the last 2 weeks.  Snow in northern Siberia is also quickly growing.  
What are you reading and how are they determining AO values for December during the second week of October? The AO took a turn towards negative territory in the long range today this is different from what the ensembles had been progging. I seen this all last winter..they would try to prog a positive AO but it never rarely verified

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by snowdog on 2013-10-16, 4:38 pm

I've been reading some from WeatherPhil over the last yew months from over on WesternUsAwx. He does a pretty good job.

LINK
Great to hear from you again. Without getting into details, I think the ridge will break down in early to mid November, with a light to moderate +AO/+NAO regime locking in from Nov 10-15 through at least December 10th, maybe up until the holiday season, before we see the PV get knocked around toward the end of December.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by jmundie on 2013-10-16, 4:59 pm

There's a new thread at american talking about a new study that uses some of Cohen's work and adds some additional variables that can predict the winter AO to a .91 correlation.

The guy who authored the study said everything is currently pointing to a positve AO for the majority of winter

I'm content to just wait and see. I've seen too many long range forecasts bust spectacularly in the last couple years to get my hopes up, or crushed, in october.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by John1122 on 2013-10-16, 7:59 pm

The last few years all the correlations have been failing it seems. Like 2012 when the AO went way negative and the NAO still didn't tank. That was around a 93% correlation that the NAO follows the AO but we got the 7% result.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by snowdog on 2013-10-16, 8:30 pm

The guy I mentioned previously gave analogs of 58-59 and 60-61. Neither were all that great. The next 20 years should tell the tale for middle TN. The AMO should start falling in combination with an already negative PDO. 1960 through 1980 was a sweet spot so to speak for snow in middle TN. In that period I believe, without looking it up, we had a -PDO and falling AMO.

Anywho, I agree, no reason to ever write off winter in October. You can get a couple of decent snowfalls even in a "bad winter" if the right ingredients come together.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by skillsweather on 2013-10-18, 8:33 pm

I have been hearing a lot of good things about what we have (or going to get) in a few weeks is really good for winter. Hopefully it works out but last year most places was saying the same thing so I kinda am not feeling really into expecting anything I just hope that we get something more then last year. We could have a horrible winter and get a big snow in march that doubles are average but imo if winter isn't showing good signs in mid to late December probably wont be a good winter. But so far so good so lets hope nothing changes the climate or whatever between now and then.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-10-18, 9:35 pm

After analyzing data for the past few months I will probably release this graphic on my blog for the winter temperature outlook in the next week or so. This has not been posted anywhere else and this graphic will favor a mean/average trough over the central united states with teh storm track right over the TN/OH valleys!

Im still sort of holding out to see what the October Arctic Oscialltion will do but im pretty sure its gonna average out positive this month. Im only doing a temperature outlook because other things are almost impossible to pin down with any sort of accuracy. This doesnt mean that we wont have snow storms this winter it just means I think temps will be more normal like here in Tennessee with many ups and downs in the weather pattern

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-19, 9:42 am

I am really beginning tothink as the picture shows most of the storm tracks are going to be where they were last year. Which is not great for major snow storms for the south. I have been thinking about this for some time now. This may be once again, the year of the clipper systems once again, which would favor people more in and around where you live toot. GOM lows if they happen would keep my area in the warm sector once again this year. Unless something major happens to change this.   Some of the difference websites i have went to say as of right now they don't see anything that really jumps out at them for and major winter cold or a snowy type of winter this year. And as you said, this does not mean there won't be any snow but, if this sets up like i think it will, for the most part it will be more like where you live in the south and elevation type snows. Meaning if i want to see much snow i may have to travel NE of me like Gatlinburg/Smokie MT area. Something that also has me worry a little is are we going into a dryer than normal winter. Hope not . Not sure on this one  about the dryer than normal winter. Still trying to sort this out. So i am thinking for my area repeat once again for me. May issue a winter forecast for my area in Mid November. Please understand i am not saying NO SNOW. But below avg for me. Still some thinking to do on this. Have a great weekend everyone. I am also thinking Lows that start out of Texas will move up toward west Tennessee area and that not good. lot of these will be cold chasing the rain out.
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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-22, 7:56 am

For what it worth department TWC has issue there winter forecast. Take a look.http://www.b.weather.com/video/new-winter-weather-outlook-39695
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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-26, 8:35 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/06/gfs_namer_348_1000_500_thick.gif If we get these kind of lows that set up like this. It a no go for snow, unless you get some wrap around throw back which in my area means SNFL. Meaning if cold air fills in behind it.
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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-10-27, 4:53 pm

Over the next couple of days I will be releasing my winter outlook! There are three different parts. The first part which is being released now is the Winter Temperature outlook.

Next will be the Winter pattern graphic..and then there will be a long and highly technical text discussion that will explain the reasoning behind these graphics. Here is part one.. the Winter Temperature outlook! I am currently working on the rest

Due to some recent and very reliable NAO correlations I have shifted the cooler conditions a little further east from the older graphic a few posts back



I will be happy to discuss my reasoning for this temperature outlook. All you have to do is ask.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-10-27, 5:39 pm

windstorm wrote:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/06/gfs_namer_348_1000_500_thick.gif If we get these kind of lows that set up like this. It a no go for snow, unless you get some wrap around throw back which in my area means SNFL. Meaning if cold air fills in behind it.
yeah, the pattern looks very condusive for severe weather setups up to about thanksgiving day or so... like what i am seeing with the troughs coming off the pacific, but more of this in the fall thread

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-28, 11:36 am

Dropping the cold air down farther south, are you thinking about more blocking in Greenland and out west. Or are you thinking maybe more cloudy days this winter than last. And in pushing the cold air farther down are we maybe talking about a 1 to 3 degree colder than normal on avg. ///????? Thanks...
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Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-10-28, 1:00 pm

Recent correlations are suggesting more Greenland blocking windstorm

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Jed33 on 2013-10-28, 2:42 pm

Ok guys, I changed the topic from Early, Early Winter to just Early Winter, as it's getting close to November and time to start saying Early Winter now, lol. Very Happy I kept most of the post that were from Mid October onward, the old ones are still in the original thread, if anyone wants to look at them.

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Re: Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-28, 7:11 pm

OK thanks everyone.
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