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My Winter outllook

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My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-03, 10:51 am

Now that October oscillation/indice values are in I can complete my winter research and boy did my thinking change!! Ive been researching data for months now but October data is the most important when it comes to a seasonal forecasting for winter. There will be no snowfall forecast because that is really impossible to do from a seasonal standpoint with anyaccuracy but the places that are colder than normal should also see average to above average snowfall.

I have found that the winters of 1980/81 and 1997/98 are the best overall matches when it comes to this years observed values of summer/fall precip/temp/upper level patterns. These two analogs also match up the best with current oscillation/indice values. The two analogs matched the current raging + October QBO (Quasi biennial oscillation) value to a tee and also matched the current neutral October AO (Arctic Oscillation) values really close also.

1980/81 is a quadruply weighted winter analog meaning every important aspect of that years data matches this years very well. 1997/98 is only triple weighted due to there being a strong El Nino that winter and we know thats not going to happen this winter! The winter AO (Arctic Oscillation) values for those two analogs were mostly negative throughout the winter and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) values were neutral to negative while the PNA (Pacific North American pattern)values were mostly positive.

winters of 80/81 and 97/98 temps on left  winters of 80/81 and 97/98 500mb anomaly on right


These are all cool to cold signals for the southern and parts of the eastern US! This may be a winter where its colder in the southern US tahn it is in the Northern US! The dominant force this winter very well could be be a monster Aleutian low or negative EPO (eastern pacific oscillation) with a very strong subtropical jetstream supplying several gulf type systems! Anyways this is my my final and official winter outlook. Please feel free to ask me any questions and AI will try an answer them. Thanks for reading

After taking the above data and mixing in a little climo here is what I come up with


Last edited by Toot on 2013-11-03, 1:36 pm; edited 4 times in total

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-11-03, 11:50 am

Toot wrote:Now that October oscillation/indice values are in I can complete my winter research and boy did my thinking change!! Ive been researching data for months now but October data is the most important when it comes to a seasonal forecasting for winter. There will be no snowfall forecast because that is really impossible to do from a seasonal standpoint with anyaccuracy but the places that are colder than normal should also see average to above average snowfall.

I have found that the winters of 1980/81 and 1997/98 are the best overall matches when it comes to this years observed values of summer/fall precip/temp/upper level patterns. These two analogs also match up the best with current oscillation/indice values. The two analogs matched the current raging + October QBO (Quasi biennial oscillation) value to a tee and also matched the current neutral October AO (Arctic Oscillation) values really close also.

1980/81 is a quadruply weighted winter analog meaning every important aspect of that years data matches this years very well. 1997/98 is only triple weighted due to there being a strong El Nino that winter and we know thats not going to happen this winter! The winter AO (Arctic Oscillation) values for those two analogs were mostly negative throughout the winter and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) values were neutral to negative while the PNA (Pacific North American pattern)values were mostly positive.

These are all cool to cold signals for the southern and parts of the eastern US! This may be a winter where its colder in the southern US tahn it is in the Northern US! The dominant force this winter very well could be be a monster Aleutian low or negative EPO (eastern pacific oscillation) with a very strong subtropical jetstream supplying several gulf type systems! Anyways this is my my final and official winter outlook. Please feel free to ask me any questions and AI will try an answer them. Thanks for reading
you sure thats your final answer?  LOL

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-03, 1:30 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:you sure thats your final answer?  LOL
Yep..here is the data to back it up Brucie..lol


80/81 and 97/98 winter temps on left 80/81 and 97/98 500mb anomaly on right

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by skillsweather on 2013-11-03, 3:32 pm

I hope your right all the places I have seen are saying torch in far south east and cold northern plains and near normal in between. I want a cold winter even a cold dry one but just no warm one as it gets old even with snow being warm in the winter.

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-03, 3:36 pm

skillsweather wrote:I hope your right all the places I have seen are saying torch in far south east and cold northern plains and near normal in between. I want a cold winter even a cold dry one but just no warm one as it gets old even with snow being warm in the winter.
Who is saying torch for the SE besides that little kid Andrews weather centre..lol?

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by skillsweather on 2013-11-03, 3:46 pm

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41542-griteaters-winter-outlook-13-14/
Well I swear I remember seeing it show different then this so this isn't that bad I guess.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
And supposedly this is bad too but I have no idea I only know what other people talk about lol. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-03, 5:29 pm

Griteaters outlook is the only one I would even consider a winter outlook. The rest is just your typical warm biased CPC where they have some areas warmer than normal and the rest a 50/50 chance..LOL I wouldnt even consider the CPC's outlook science. Griteater looks like he has done alot of research maybe even overanalyzed! But seasonal forecasts are mostly slightly educated guesses anyways! We are getting better at it every year tho. Thanks Skills!

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-04, 1:57 pm

Well am thinking avg to about avg temps this winter. Just about a repeat of last winter. One to two snow/ice events. In my area. No highs of 32 or below for daytime temps. Lowest temp no lower than 12 at the most. Last year it got down to 17 IMBY. If we get and active southern jet it will make for a wet winter. But just don't know. In my area we will stay on the warm side of most weather stystems just like last year. Below normal snowfall. But it only takes one good snow to put us over the top. So that's aways in the cards. There will be some cold weather, but nothing that will stick with us for  any long amounts of time. Maybe and i mean maybe a snow of 1 - 3 inches. For me am going with my gut feeling not any weather charts or past History.  Have one question for Toot with all that warm weather to the north this winter as posted on your winter outlook, where are you expecting the cold air from. ? I know the jet will change from time to time. But am thinking the cold that does come down most will slide off to the east and we will get just a piece of it and not the mother load of the cold. Clipper systems are common in winter and they do favor most people to  the north of me unless we can get one that really digs south. Well that it for this year winter forecast in my area. Hope it wrong. I would really like to see some good snows this winter along with the cold weather.
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-04, 7:37 pm

One of our local weatherman here will give his winter outlook this month. Here a small peak at what he said. Do I see some really cold air at times this year? Yes. More on this and the entire StormTrack 9 Winter Forecast on Monday, November 25th!
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-04, 8:00 pm

windstorm wrote: Have one question for Toot with all that warm weather to the north this winter as posted on your winter outlook, where are you expecting the cold air from?
In that pattern it would be pieces of the Polar Vortex (528-540 DM Lows) and the subtropical jet!

This is not a forecast below this is actually observed anomalies from quadruple and triple weighted analogs windstorm


Cold air works its way down from the upper levels to the ground! It dont have to travel through Canada and the north to get here! It can go around an upper level anticyclone (HPS) and work its way down to the surface right over top of us

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-04, 8:22 pm

Like a cold core low bringing it own cold air ???
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-04, 9:58 pm

windstorm wrote:Like a cold core low bringing it own cold air ???
Sort of..but on a much larger scale! All Mid Latitude low pressure systems are cold core tho. Tropical lows are the only ones that are warm core..but there is your hybrid from time to time that has both cold and warm core aspects. Hurricane Sandy turned hybrid for a little while before she went completely cold core

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-11-04, 10:11 pm

consenus has that solar activity has really spiked up and trends in future be quite active... may not bold to well for wnter.

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-04, 11:57 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:consenus has that solar activity has really spiked up and trends in future be quite active... may not bold to well for wnter.
Solar activity has like a 6 month lag for its affects on weather

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-05, 1:04 pm

Cycle 24 has been a bust for ham radio. There has been some good times but not that many. Cycle 23 was much more active. It actually peak twice. There still a lot they don't know about weather and Sun Spots how they have an affect on weather, I tend to think they do, just like the oceans that surround us. But in years to come they will connect the dots with the weather. Waiting to hear what they come up with and be able to prove. I have thought for some time the the solar activity had something to do with the weather. I remember them talking as far back as the 80's about this. Very interesting.
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-05, 9:56 pm

Hey Toot,
Robert (wxsouth) pretty much is in lock step agreement with you on the upcoming winter! Wxsouth=Wxeastern, lol!  Here's his outlook, which was now posted under the free archives on his site.
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-06, 10:11 am

I hope this comes true. Got my fingers cross.
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-06, 10:16 am

Have a question about wxsouth. Would it be worth signing up for this at 9.95 or something a month ? Would like some input please on pros and cons. Thanks.popcorn 
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-06, 1:01 pm

To me it would be windstorm. Robert is very good, but check out Toot's premium site b4 you pay robert.

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-06, 8:28 pm

Right now I am only offering custom purchases involving Forensic Meteorology..custom forecasts by the day or week..Customized case studies..hazardous working conditions outlooks etc etc and all of these in high res graphical format!

You tell me what you want and I provide it for a small fee (Prices are negotiable). I just dont have the time to put the blog work in to charge for a monthly subscription service like Robert does. I have a HVAC buisnesss I help run during the the day!

The weather biz mostly goes on during the night for me but I do offer a FREE weather blog on facebook that covers quite the load! Anyways.. maybe one day when I get more time on my hands I can do monthly subs involving weather full time..LOL


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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-06, 8:32 pm

Ok thanks guys. I was just checking, There are so many free weather sites, i have never bought into one.
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-06, 8:48 pm

Jed33 wrote:Hey Toot,
Robert (wxsouth) pretty much is in lock step agreement with you on the upcoming winter! Wxsouth=Wxeastern, lol!  Here's his outlook, which was now posted under the free archives on his site.
I feel this winter will rival 2009/10 and maybe even colder/snowier. Its a very unique setup this winter that we havent seen since the 60's I think.

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by IceMan23 on 2013-11-06, 9:46 pm

Toot wrote:
Jed33 wrote:Hey Toot,
Robert (wxsouth) pretty much is in lock step agreement with you on the upcoming winter! Wxsouth=Wxeastern, lol!  Here's his outlook, which was now posted under the free archives on his site.
I feel this winter will rival 2009/10 and maybe even colder/snowier. Its a very unique setup this winter that we havent seen since the 60's I think.
I can give a big toast to this one!! pals 

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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-06, 9:57 pm

I hope it does,...
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Re: My Winter outllook

Post by Toot on 2013-11-06, 11:38 pm

Latest run of GFS going balls to the wall with MAJOR snowstorm for TN valley next week! Still running but its gonna be an epic run pass out 

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