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First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

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First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-07, 12:13 am


A few days ago the European model picked up on this wintry threat and now the American model has a fullblown snow storm in the eastern US mid to late next week! A strong shortwave looks to dive out of the upper plains and go negative tilt near the Mid Atlantic region causing the surface low to wind up and tap into a cold air source! At this point I believe accumulating snow is likely to occur in the southern Appalachian region and possibly many other places to the north.

There is no need to sugarcoat it..this is a legitimate winter threat and someone will see accumulating snow from this system! Details of exactly who.. when.. and where will reveal themselves over the next few days!

There is nothing set in stone just yet but keep in mind this is still a week away and things WILL change but here you go! Valid next Thursday! Dont get too excited just yet but odds are on the increase for southern Appalachian region snowstorm with possible accumulations further north also!


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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-07, 7:53 am

If you havent heard the european model joined the American model last night in the major eastern US Snowstorm!

Im sure all the forecasters that said "oh its just the GFS (american model) and it sucks" feel sort of dumb this morning haha!

More updates on likely major snowstorm later this evening! #MAJORSNOW #EARLYWINTER #NOREASTER
Photo: If you havent heard the european model joined the American model last night in the major eastern US Snowstorm!

Im sure all the forecasters that said "oh its just the GFS (american model) and it sucks" feel sort of dumb this morning haha!

More updates on likely major snowstorm later this evening! #MAJORSNOW #EARLYWINTER #NOREASTER


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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Reb on 2013-11-07, 7:59 am


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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-07, 8:35 am

lol! LMAO

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by jmundie on 2013-11-07, 2:02 pm

Bless.



Last edited by jmundie on 2013-11-07, 4:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-07, 4:20 pm

Huge snow events happen here in November and March, so it's not out of the question to get a big event. But JKL has a good summary of the very uncertain forecast.

FOLLOWING THIS...ALL EYES SHIFT TO A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...MOVING EAST...AND DRIVING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BROAD OVERALL PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY AND CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THE SPECIFICS AS TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET NEXT WEEK AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE SNOW REMAIN MURKY. THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING SINCE...AS WPC STATED...THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE FORECAST. WITH TYPICAL SAMPLING ISSUES OVER THE PACIFIC WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS wrote:

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-11-07, 4:30 pm

Toot lets see some porn in the members only section.rock on 

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-07, 5:20 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot  lets see some porn in the members only section.rock on 
Will do..I'm about home from work give me a few

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-07, 6:11 pm

Some awesome graphics posted in members only section of todays 12z euro BOMB! I will post more later..about to eat dinner.

Enjoy beer

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-07, 8:32 pm

From my Blog

-Nerdy weather talk concerning the possible major winter storm system late next week-

While the snowfall graphics are pretty and fun to look at its time for some science and reality! I have analyzed alot of guidance data this evening and I think the European model is WAYYY overdone with snow totals and cyclogenesis. Many of its ensembles also disagree with the operational Euro!

I dont like to speak in absolute terms like many other forecasters are doing with this system. So im not going to say there is no way the euro is correct and im also not going to say that its completely wrong! As you know..early this morning the American model (GFS) was pretty much progging the same thing the euro is!

However..I think the european model is over developing a blocking ridge at the 500mb level in the north Atlantic! This causes the shortwave to split faster and in turn sends the southern energy digging southward much quicker than the GFS which also deepens much quicker causing even more blocking to develop and in result the shortwave/ULL goes into an intense negative tilt exploding a powerful surface cyclone!

Having said all that..there is an experimental model called the FIM which one day may replace the American GFS model and I think it has a much better grasp on the situation. It is essentially an average between the EURO and GFS outcomes! A middle of the road take if you will?

This will likely mean heavy snow for the higher elevations of the central/southern Appalachian region with much lighter amounts in the lower elevations of same area. In simple terms.. the further away (East or West) you are from the spine of the Appalachian mountains..the less likely it is that you will see an accumulating snow.

At this point I do expect accumulations in and around the central and southern Appalachian mountains. How much and exactly where is yet to be determined.

Below is the experimantal FIM model showing storm system with snow west and along the purple 850mb 32 degree line.

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-07, 9:47 pm

First thing that comes to mind besides OMG is the Great Applachain Snowstorm from back in the 50s. It was in Nov. as well, albeit a little later in Nov.

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-08, 11:52 am

I do remember my dad talking about seeing a snow in November, here back around that time. But of course i was not here.
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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-08, 11:58 am

Here is something I found funny from MRX today, almost like they were expecting someone to criticize them if they didn't say something about it:

000
FXUS64 KMRX 080709
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
209 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A DRY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WE WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE 850 MB
RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA...WE WILL SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IT MAY ALSO BE THE FIRST
CHANCE OF SNOW. THERE WE SAID IT
. EVEN THOUGH SNOW WILL FALL THERE IS STILL QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN IF IT WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH. ONE MODEL IS MUCH DRIER/FASTER MOVING THAN THE OTHER AND WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TRACE AND PERHAPS A FEW INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER TYPE EVENT BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CHANGING DEVELOPMENTS. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS POP FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-08, 12:09 pm

Last GFS model i look at seems to bring the cold air in but kind of dries up the moisture with it, except snow in the Mts and some snow in the NE part of Tennessee. They do have rain and snow in our long range outlook for next week. This will flip. flop many times i guess. Will be watching for it. If i get some snow flakes that will be a good start.
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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by skillsweather on 2013-11-08, 10:39 pm

Well this isn't going to effect us really no more. Other then cold temps. Highs will be in the 40s for a few days and that alone is pretty sweet for mid November.. Usually highs in the 40s is January type weather.

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-09, 10:02 am

As I said yesterday that the euro was way overdone! It has now folded with its blizzard! lol Also.. as i said yesterday that i expected the heaviest snow along the spine of the apps with lighter amounts in the outlying foothills! That is exactly what the latest gfs is showing and is what i will likely forecast. Should have my snowfall graphic out by tomorrow.



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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Neals on 2013-11-09, 2:09 pm

Toot wrote:As I said yesterday that the euro was way overdone! It has now folded with its blizzard! lol Also.. as i said yesterday that i expected the heaviest snow along the spine of the apps with lighter amounts in the outlying foothills! That is exactly what the latest gfs is showing and is what i will likely forecast. Should have my snowfall graphic out by tomorrow.



popcorn 

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-10, 12:29 pm

I'm thinking 1/2-1 inch above 2500, 1-2 above 3500, 3-6 above 5000. Snow showers that may coat decks and car tops for the rest of us.

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-10, 6:51 pm

An example of wxeastern premium graphics for snow storms and my current thoughts


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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Vanster67 on 2013-11-10, 9:59 pm

greetings all. hoping for some of the white stuff here in monterey. Damn good to see ya.
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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Toot on 2013-11-11, 8:08 am

Vanster67 wrote:greetings all. hoping for some of the white stuff here in monterey.  Damn good to see ya.  
Greetings Vann..long no see buddy beer 

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Vanster67 on 2013-11-11, 12:10 pm

toot good to be around again. I knew when you mentioned snow there would be a decent chance for it.
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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-11, 3:16 pm

Latest WRF model looks good for a little snow for plateau and E TN, esp. NE TN.

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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by Vanster67 on 2013-11-11, 3:55 pm

nws has 50% sleet snow for monterey in forecast possible 1/2 inch accums but nothing on roads. still be pretty to see. anyone remember our earliest snowfall last winter?
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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-11, 6:00 pm

Where here in Chattanooga a few years back we had a trace of snow on the ground either on Halloween day or day or two after that.
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Re: First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16

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