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Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14

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Post by Toot 2014-01-16, 6:19 pm

snowdog wrote:With this upcoming pattern, it's time for Toot to come out of hiding and do his thang.    pals 


Major pattern change coming!! Another arctic outbreak becoming likely but the southern stream will likely get involved this time around contrary to the current pattern that is a northern stream dominant one!

Pacific and Atlantic ridging will likely grow into each other creating the awesome pattern of cross Canadian blocking with a lobe of the polar vortex centered near the great lakes region!!

This will aid in the possibility of a gulf low or two that could materialize by late January and turn in to a Noreaster or two! Still in the extended range so not written in stone yet.. but there is a awful good agreement on this between trusted guidance models.

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Post by Toot 2014-01-17, 7:31 am

Behold the latest Canadian model..which is not the best model in the world but the end of the month pattern looks to very much support this!!Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14 - Page 10 1520717_541039466003810_2067064587_n
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Winter Wx Discussion 2013/14 - Page 10 SLeJR
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Post by snowdog 2014-01-17, 8:54 am

Toot wrote:
snowdog wrote:With this upcoming pattern, it's time for Toot to come out of hiding and do his thang.    pals 
Major pattern change coming!! Another arctic outbreak becoming likely but the southern stream will likely get involved this time around contrary to the current pattern that is a northern stream dominant one!

There it is!! I'm all in on the upcoming pattern Toot. I hope it verifies.

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Post by VFL 2014-01-17, 9:02 am

Snow showers moving back in from the mid state area.
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Post by windstorm 2014-01-17, 9:24 am

Local weatherman here has been talking of maybe single digit readings again at the end of the month. GFS has not back off of it either. But of course everyone knows about the GFS. But very possible. Have not check the models today to see if the GFS is still showing it. Still away's out. Going to look now. But we need some GOM Lows while we have the cold weather, and we need some good blocking also which has not been here most of the winter so far. That the reason for the one or two days of cold and back to warming up again.
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Post by VFL 2014-01-17, 11:03 am

Down slopping is killing the valley one again.
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Post by Snowfia 2014-01-17, 6:46 pm

Nice snow shower currently in Southern Campbell County.

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Post by Jed33 2014-01-17, 10:17 pm

Got flurries/light snow now in Morristown. It's not much but it's something

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Post by John1122 2014-01-17, 10:33 pm

Picked up about an inch here in the mountains in CC.

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Post by Math/Met 2014-01-17, 11:53 pm

There has to be some fairly impressive snow at the moment just south of the MRX radar. The ratios would be very high, and that is an impressive looking snow band.

I'm hoping that holds together and continues to move in my general direction.

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Post by John1122 2014-01-18, 2:13 am

I heard that band put down around 2 inches in Erwin.

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Post by Math/Met 2014-01-18, 2:34 am

I haven’t actually gone outside to measure, but it looks like we might have about 1 inch of snow here.

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Post by Jscentraltn 2014-01-18, 7:53 am

The euro is still showing a poss storm next sat for southern and eastern tn. The gfs was showing this for a couple of runs but the 6z it is gone. Iam ready for something exciting. The split flow needs to come on before the artic leaves!
 baby 
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Post by Toot 2014-01-18, 7:59 am

Jscentraltn wrote:The euro is still showing a poss storm next sat for southern and eastern tn. The gfs was showing this for a couple of runs but the 6z it is gone. Iam ready for something exciting. The split flow needs to come on before the artic leaves!
 baby 
Yep..its been very consistent with this and its now in the euros deadly accurate zone. The pattern also supports it and many GFS ensembles have been showing it. Id say there is decent chance for a southern slider around next weekend give or take a day!!
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Post by Jscentraltn 2014-01-18, 8:11 am

Yeah! I think we are In a good spot. It just needs to come north and west just a little to put cheatham county in the snow zone!
 drool
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Post by tennessee storm09 2014-01-18, 8:25 am

Jscentraltn wrote:Yeah! I think we are In a good spot. It just needs to come north and west just a little to put cheatham county in the snow zone!
 drool
yep, not a bad position to be in this time frame... if any trend occurs. its 90 percent time a nw trend...

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Post by weathertree4u 2014-01-18, 9:13 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Jscentraltn wrote:Yeah! I think we are In a good spot. It just needs to come north and west just a little to put cheatham county in the snow zone!
 drool
yep, not a bad position to be in this time frame... if any trend occurs. its 90 percent time a nw trend...

I agree we are in a good spot, I would suspect to see that come north; I would like to kick the GFS down the street and back; for days it was doing well depicting the polar outbreak in the long range, then suddenly it took a stupid pill and is back to the same trick of warming in the long range, which it has been advertising all Winter

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Post by Dyersburg Weather 2014-01-18, 12:07 pm

I sure hope the Euro holds on. Todays run will tell a lot. 3 runs in a row the GFS says what storm and what ridge.
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Post by windstorm 2014-01-18, 12:41 pm

GFS does this about every time. Shows extreme cold and then backs off. Then sometimes it gets back on track. One thing about this cool/cold patten. If we don't start seeing some major players on the map, snow chances are going by the way side. And when the change takes place to warmer weather, will it be that easy to get back in the cold flow of things. Clipper systems favor E and NE Tenn more so because of the elevations most of the time. Not every time. But those living in those places know what am talking about. At times it helps out Middle Tennessee also. Have a good weekend everyone.
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Post by tennessee storm09 2014-01-18, 10:34 pm

there is an serious epedemic going around all weather boards , forums... its called WINTER CANCEL... i highly suspect it to spread t this forum very soon after this upcoming weeks end...

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Post by Jscentraltn 2014-01-18, 10:56 pm

I don't buy it! There is plenty winter left. You can't take one model and say winter is over! Feb will be a busy month. From snowstorms to severe weather! Remember dec? I had more winter precip then than now so you don't have to have artic blast to get a ice storm or even a snowstorm! I think winter stays. Just my thought!!!!!!
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Post by Jscentraltn 2014-01-18, 11:01 pm

The pattern that we enter soon if more favorable for us anyway!!!!!!
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Post by Toot 2014-01-18, 11:32 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:there is an serious epedemic going around all weather boards , forums... its called WINTER CANCEL... i highly suspect it to spread t this forum very soon after this upcoming weeks end...  
LOL..ive had several inches of snow already but yeah.. meteorological winter ends in about a month and a half.
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Post by tennessee storm09 2014-01-19, 12:12 am

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:there is an serious epedemic going around all weather boards , forums... its called WINTER CANCEL... i highly suspect it to spread t this forum very soon after this upcoming weeks end...  
LOL..ive had several inches of snow already but yeah.. meteorological winter ends in about a month and a half.
consider yourself one of the 10 percent of the state of tennessee lucky...long range gfs tonight says, break out your flip flops, lets go fishing... i am ready for severe weather

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Post by Toot 2014-01-19, 2:17 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:long range gfs tonight says, break out your flip flops, lets go fishing... i am ready for severe weather
Bruce..you of all people know good and well you cant look at the single and operational GFS past day 5 for any accuracy. Ive told you many times if you want to look past day 5 for accuarcy with the GFS you have to use the GFS ensembles. Here they are all the way to day 16 (hr 384) ridge out west doesnt look to go anywhere. Looks colder than normal as far as the eye can see and the euro and its ensembles also look pretty similar. Enough with the flip flops and shorts talk!
lol! 

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