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Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

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Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-04, 8:48 am

An idea what the radar may look like Fri night Sat morning for west TN



Models still are in disagreeement as to how much frozen stuff will accumulate and with this being an over running situation precip type will be extremely hard to nail down! Lets just hope the euro is wrong becuse alot of this would likley be freezing rain as models cant differentiate between snow Freeezing rain and sleet on this particular paramater (Snow Depth). Anyways I think the euro is way overdone tho and likely too far east with accums. 


I think places like Dyersburg may do well and get into the good stuff! Likely even some heavy snow for a period



Good luck DW:pals:

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-04, 9:10 am

Probabilities of significant icing (>.25in) Friday into Saturday from the HPC/WPC. Looks like it could get quite slippery in the Memphis metro!

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Winter Storm Watch NW TN

Post by ballpark on 2013-12-04, 1:31 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1211 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

...A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO
IMPACT NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
BRINGING WITH IT AMPLE RAINFALL. AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO A FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW
FREEZING...SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX IN AT THE TAIL
END OF THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REGARDLESS...IMPACTS FROM
THIS WINTER STORM COULD BE QUITE HAZARDOUS FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

TNZ005>007-022>026-056-057-051100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.131206T1500Z-131207T0600Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-
CHEATHAM-PERRY-HICKMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...LOBELVILLE...
CENTERVILLE
1211 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR MAINLY ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...FROM 9AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO ONE HALF INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE COMBINED WITH
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AND AROUND AN INCH
AS WELL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES FROM DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICE OR SLEET AND PERHAPS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-04, 2:02 pm

This thing is going to be hard to predict. Going to be a lot of now casting. Potential for a disaster somewhere.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by ballpark on 2013-12-04, 2:10 pm

It looks like your going to get hit pretty hard in Dyersburg. Its looking like your zone could be a disaster.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-04, 4:44 pm

GFS likely revealing where the heaviest snow will fall via surface temp progs! Some parts of Arkansas and Missouri progged for sub zero lows likely aided by hefty snowpack still on the ground Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-04, 5:04 pm

HI RES NAM going for major icing event in the majority of western TN!



Valid 15z Friday Precip type

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-04, 5:24 pm

Praying for the cold air to over achieve. Give me the sleet please.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-04, 5:28 pm

This will be fun uh oh 

Friday Freezing rain before noon, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Temperature falling to around 25 by 4pm. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-04, 5:35 pm

Been a while since I have seen a forecast like this in Dec beer 

Thursday

Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%


High: 46 °FFalling Temperatures

Thursday
Night

Freezing Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Freezing Rain

Low: 31 °F

Friday

Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Wintry
Mix

High: 31 °FFalling Temperatures

Friday
Night

Snow/Sleet Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Snow/Sleet

Low: 20 °F

Saturday

Mostly Sunny

Mostly
Sunny

High: 28 °F

Saturday
Night

Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%

Wintry
Mix

Low: 26 °F

Sunday

Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%

Wintry
Mix

High: 36 °F

Sunday
Night

Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Wintry
Mix

Low: 27 °F

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-04, 6:20 pm


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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by ballpark on 2013-12-04, 8:39 pm


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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-04, 10:30 pm

The front is faster than what the models were showing. Which is what I thought! The nam is colder and faster. The artic front is already at-the bootheel of Missouri.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-12-05, 5:50 am

hold on dyer, its fixing to get interesting around here... ice storm warning out most of west tn... i just hope the cold layer gets some deeper and we can get into more sleet profile

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by windstorm on 2013-12-05, 6:52 am

Parts of Mississippi are in a WWA as of now. This could be upgraded or may not. Just have to wait and see. Cold air is still slowly making its way toward Tenn. May not make it there until late night or Friday morning. Temps have been dropping 3 to 4 degrees and hour where the colder air has move in.
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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by IceMan23 on 2013-12-05, 7:33 am

.6-.8 ice accumulation predicted in Dyersburg with 1-2 inches of snow, according to NWS. This storm will be crippling.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-05, 10:10 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:hold on dyer, its fixing to get interesting around here... ice storm warning out most of west tn... i just hope the cold layer gets some deeper and we can get into more sleet profile
Yea. Praying for cold air. It is ahead of schedule right now. Already down to 45.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by wxgeek on 2013-12-05, 12:01 pm

I slept with the windows open last night and woke up to an outside temp of 68. This morning's temp forecast was for Nashville area to hit low 50s around 3pm. We're already there about 11am so about 4 hrs ahead of schedule so far. I hope that doesn't push that 1/2 inch of ice our way or I need to go buy a generator. I didn't live here at the time but heard stories about a major ice storm that hit this area in the early/mid 90s.

Just got a text that Williamson and Davidson Counties added to WWA with .1" ice and 1" snow. Until this we only had rain on tap. So this is either trending colder or faster, or both.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-05, 1:54 pm

Well they have issued a State of Emergency for West TN. Down to 40 in Dyersburg at 12:45.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by VFL on 2013-12-05, 2:09 pm

Good luck west Tenn boys. We all love winter but this crap is for the birds. Stay safe and best of luck but it looks like it's gonna be rough out there.
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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by wxgeek on 2013-12-05, 2:53 pm

Yeah, good luck to everyone out there. I hope it's not as bad as advertised. Ice that thick is likely to knock down power lines. Stay warm.

Looks like the front is pushing through. Maps showing Lewisburg is 69* and Culleoka at 52*, they're about 13 miles apart.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-05, 4:29 pm

Ice damage index from NWS Memphis

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-05, 6:44 pm

Toot , They have updated this. Don't look good for me boys. Damn it.


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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by snowdog on 2013-12-05, 7:25 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot , They have updated this. Don't look good for me boys. Damn it.

Yeah, you look to be fooked.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by ballpark on 2013-12-05, 8:10 pm


000
FXUS64 KOHX 060042
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TEMPS TRENDING COLDER THAN MODELS ARE PREDICTING SO MAY NEED TO
PUT OUT AN ADVISORY OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
WILL WATCH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN DECIDE. LATEST RUC
SOUNDING AT CLARKSVILLE IS COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BY 04Z WITH WARM NOSE ON SOUNDING +5 TO + 7 DEGREES. SURFACE TEMPS
AND SURFACE WET BULBS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 32 OVERNIGHT.

BOYD

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR TNZ007-008-025>027-056>060-093-094.

ICE STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR TNZ005-006-022>024.


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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

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