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Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-05, 8:25 pm

35degrees and a thunderstorm in pleasant view tn, may end up with ice a lot sooner than what is predicted! My forecast calls for rain tonight and rain mixed tomorrow afternoon? I doubt it.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-05, 9:05 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot , They have updated this. Don't look good for me boys. Damn it.

Ouch! That "5" area got much bigger too!

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-06, 1:29 am

We are screwed. Already glazing over with at least 12 hours of precip to go.bs

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-06, 4:37 am

Dyersburg Weather wrote:We are screwed. Already glazing over with at least 12 hours of precip to go.bs
Hope you have a generator and plenty of gas. I love winter, but ice is one thing I can do without.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-06, 10:43 am

Not sure if it is a bad observation, or if this is real or not, but Tunica Airport just South of Memphis is apparently reporting Thundersnow right now!!

Memphis International Airport 08:54 Light Rain  32 29 88 N 14 30.14
Millington Municipal Airport 08:55 Light Rain Fog/Mist 30 28 93 N 12 30.16
West Memphis 08:53 Light Freezing Rain 30 NA NA N 15 30.18
Tunica Municipal Airport 09:15 Thunderstorm Snow in Vicinity 32 32 100 N 10 G 16 30.16
Jackson, McKellar-Sipes Regional Airport 08:53 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist 33 30 89 N 13 30.15
Blytheville Municipal Airport 08:53 Unknown Precip Fog/Mist 29 27 92 N 20 30.22
Jonesboro Municipal Airport 08:53 Unknown Precip Fog/Mist 27 26 96 NE 12 G 17 30.22
Walnut Ridge Automatic Weather Observing / Report 09:15 Overcast 25 16 69 N 14 30.25
Batesville Automatic Weather Observing / Reporting 09:15 Overcast 23 19 86 Calm 30.24
Little Rock, Adams Field 08:53 Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist 32 28 85 NE 13 30.20
Pine Bluff, Grider Field Airport 08:53 Freezing Rain Fog/Mist 32 30 92 N 16 30.13
Tupelo Regional Airport 08:53 Overcast 38 36 93 N 13 30.09

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by fire rescue87 on 2013-12-06, 12:19 pm

power went out for about 30 min. in benton county and surrounding areas. tva lost our two substations. just a taste of things to come i think.
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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by WFayetteTN1 on 2013-12-06, 1:31 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot , They have updated this. Don't look good for me boys. Damn it.

The good news on this updated graphic is that I move back into a SPIA 2... but I can look down the street and see SPIA 3... and Im only 15 mi from the 4. My concern is going to be the wind. I have many very tall trees.. in a wooded area. This could be bad. Praying for a changeover to sleet. Heavy freezing rain now...

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-06, 1:37 pm

Hey Chris! Glad to see you made it! It's good to have you on board here. Keep us posted how things in Fayette Co. turn out

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by John1122 on 2013-12-06, 1:48 pm

While it likely won't translate to frozen precip here, this thing has been much colder further east and south than forecast by NWS offices. I was supposed to be in the mid 50's today after a low of 51 this morning. Instead it was 42 at midnight, 40 this morning and it's 39 right now.  This may bode well for more frozen to develop over the mid-state at least.


Last edited by John1122 on 2013-12-06, 2:30 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by secleveland on 2013-12-06, 2:01 pm


look at the wrf for sunday round 2

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-06, 2:05 pm

Wow John! Who knows, you may get something it went down to 47 here this AM now back up to 51 with fog really setting in esp on the hills. The plateau is certainly living up to its reputation of putting the brakes on the cold air!

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by WFayetteTN1 on 2013-12-06, 4:48 pm

Latest MEG AFD with a technical question...


AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME...

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SNOW IS OCCURRING NORTH OF A
JONESBORO TO PARIS TENNESSEE LINE. FROM MEMPHIS TO
JACKSON...FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH OCCASIONAL SLEET MIXING IN
AT TIMES. BETWEEN THESE TWO CORRIDORS...THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF
JUST SLEET OCCURRING. THE FREEZING LINE HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO A
LINE ROUGHLY LOCATED CLARKSDALE TO NEAR CORINTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL OUT
OF HERE AROUND 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SOME LINGERING RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DEPENDING ON
WHAT THE TEMPERATURES ARE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OCCURRING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING. WILL LET
EVENING SHIFT DECIDE IF AN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AFTER THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS END. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COLDER AIR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS RANDOLPH COUNTY ARKANSAS TO NEAR 32
DEGREES IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY.
IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS CLOUD COVER AND
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT
THE MIDSOUTH IN AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AGAIN. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN
CHANGE TO RAIN OR JUST RAIN OCCUR AS SOME WARMER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED. IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD INTO MAINLY JUST NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED INTO THE AREA BY THIS TIME THUS
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL MORE AS SLEET/SNOW BUT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
THIS TIME IT WILL JUST BE RAIN.

KRM
maybe a stupid question, but if I draw the lucky number and win a free pocket of warm air.. even momentarily, I would have to assume that the rain would only help my icy tree issues, right? Or would it just be more water that will freeze on the current layer of ice? Is it easier for above freezing water to melt frozen water, or would the cold rain just add to the frozen mess I already have? Maybe I am splitting hairs.. but another 1/4" or so, could be a potentially bad thing for me.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-06, 7:14 pm

WFayetteTN1 wrote:
maybe a stupid question, but if I draw the lucky number and win a free pocket of warm air.. even momentarily, I would have to assume that the rain would only help my icy tree issues, right? Or would it just be more water that will freeze on the current layer of ice? Is it easier for above freezing water to melt frozen water, or would the cold rain just add to the frozen mess I already have? Maybe I am splitting hairs.. but another 1/4" or so, could be a potentially bad thing for me.
Your question literally depends on temperatures RIGHT at the surface in your area. If its still below freezing then any rain will just add to what you already have. Got to get those very low level temps up before things start melting good

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by John1122 on 2013-12-07, 12:12 pm

Sitting at 32 on the nose, temps have actually fallen 1 degree since this morning. MRX has had my temps about 5 degrees too warm throughout this entire period.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-12-07, 1:32 pm

Yeah! I'am setting at 26.3 and cloudy with a very fine drizzle still have ice on trees and some powerlines. My forecast was for partly sunny high 35 not going to make it! So tonight could cause more problems here.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-07, 9:39 pm

We'll, it's an outside shot, but MRX issued an SPS that the N valley, from Morristown N might get in on this yet. I've been at a Christmas party tonight and don't have ability to post it SPS since I'm on my phone, but it said not much could be expected just enough to cause problems. I noticed just awhile ago that the car was reading 33 degrees and that's what I have now here at home. So that's not much more to drop to cause problems if any precip developed. I also noticed the winds were from the N/NE which I think is a good trajectory for keeping cold air around in this area, so who knows. I guess we'll see what happens

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-07, 10:40 pm

32 here now. Really wondering what might be the outcome here overnight. There must be some kind of penetration of cold air into this area. I know we don't have CAD, but how else would we do this if it wasn't "cold air drainage"

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by etnwx on 2013-12-07, 11:12 pm

34.7 here with N winds. We need at least a 3 degree drop, but how knows what might happen.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-07, 11:23 pm

Yeah, I don't expect much, but to already be below forecasted low (I'm at 32) says something for at least the onset of the precip. I can't wait up, but if I wake up, I might go look at it

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Toot on 2013-12-08, 12:52 am

Jed33 wrote:32 here now. Really wondering what might be the outcome here overnight. There must be some kind of penetration of cold air into this area. I know we don't have CAD, but how else would we do this if it wasn't "cold air drainage"
Its a different form of Cold Air Damming (CAD) in the east TN valley. The cold air sinks into the valley and gets trapped due to the high terrain that surrounds it. Often times it takes some pretty good forcing to drive it out of the deepest nooks and crannies of the northern valley

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by John1122 on 2013-12-08, 1:00 am

Had some freezing drizzle this evening, actually had snow earlier today. Temp is 30.7.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-08, 2:15 am

Boy this little disturbance coming through is over performing. I-40 between Memphis and Nashville is going to be a mess. Major roads being closed in Memphis now.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-12-08, 3:37 am

26 degrees and 75% sleet/25% rain in Dyersburg. It became a mess in a matter of minutes.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-08, 12:39 pm

Toot wrote:
Jed33 wrote:32 here now. Really wondering what might be the outcome here overnight. There must be some kind of penetration of cold air into this area. I know we don't have CAD, but how else would we do this if it wasn't "cold air drainage"
Its a different form of Cold Air Damming (CAD) in the east TN valley. The cold air sinks into the valley and gets trapped due to the high terrain that surrounds it. Often times it takes some pretty good forcing to drive it out of the deepest nooks and crannies of the northern valley
Ah ok I got it. I don't know exactly what happened TBH. I went to bed it was 32, so I suppose we may have had a brief time when it came down as Frz but when I woke up it was raining and 36 so not much if any was able to accrete.

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

Post by Jed33 on 2013-12-10, 3:32 pm

We'll I ended up with 3.15in if liquid precip for this multi-day event we jut had. Just wish a little more of it had been snow!

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Re: Over Running Winter storm Dec 6-8

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