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Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

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Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-01, 12:55 pm

Thought I would go ahead and create a thread for this now as guidance models have come into agreement on a brutally cold airmass that will affect the eastern united states the second week of January. The Polar Vortex will be the catalyst for widespread sub zero temperatures across the upper eastern united states with single digits dipping all the way into the southeastern united states!

One of the strongest Arctic cold fronts seen in many years will sweep through the region Monday into Tuesday laying down light to modearate snow accumulations from the Tennessee valley northward. It will be one of those fronts where you wont have to look at any weather maps to know when it has hit your area!

After the front passes temperatures will plummet as very cold Arctic high pressure settles in over the area. Folks across the Ohio Valley and great lakes region will take the brunt of this airmass but it will be felt all the way into Florida! This is the type of cold that causes problems for automobiles.. heating systems..electricity.. water sources etc etc..




Last edited by Toot on 2014-01-03, 7:33 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-01, 5:51 pm

It seems that 18z GFS was slightly colder than 12z for next week. That is downright frigid we'll have to see I guess what comes of it. The 18z was also faster bringing the arctic cold front across the state which pushed the slp further SE which produced more snow further south and east for sun night into mom AM which in turn lowered the progged temps. It's all tied together get more snow, get lower temps. I hope it trends even further S and E and wollops the whole state sort of like the Euro did a few days ago. Only time will tell I guess

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-01, 7:20 pm

Robert has a nice update on FB. Shows where he believes the arctic temps will be by midday mon. Single digits and low teens coming into KY and TN at that time. Expects BNA and TRI to be near zero by Tues AM. BMX probably in upper single digits by then. Check it out on FB

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-01, 11:30 pm

Snowfall accumulations from 0z GFS


Low Temps Tuesday!
Can u tell where the snowcover is?

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-01, 11:35 pm

Let me cash my chips now! I'll take it and gladly run with that! Wow what a change from earlier today. Is this snowfall synoptic or is it being driven more by the PV?

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-01, 11:43 pm

Thats mostly synoptic there.. hardly any NW flow behind front. Gonna be awesome to experience this front first hand. Im not sure ive ever tracked a stronger cold front than this one 
smoke

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-02, 6:42 am

6z GFS is EVEN colder than 0z if you can believe that! Most of E TN drops below zero on that one with some snow, looks about like 0z on the snow amounts. I don't know about the Euro, I have done some reading but haven't seen any maps on it yet. I believe I did read where it may have been slightly colder than it's noon readings though. It's almost certain that it's going to get very cold. Just don't know how much snowfall we may end up with.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by VFL on 2014-01-02, 10:29 am

Wow lots of reports of ice and snow around the Ky boarding county's of Tenn. Even in Knox I've seen sidewalks with crunchy slush on them.
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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-02, 11:14 am

The 0z euro looks about the same temp wise but tracks wave of low pressure further west so the significant snow is more westward. The 12z GFS holds serve with the track further eastward

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-02, 11:18 am

Any graphics on 12z yet Toot?

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-02, 2:08 pm

Jed33 wrote:Any graphics on 12z yet Toot?
At work right now..will try an post some graphics this evening

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-02, 3:31 pm

These are not actual temps but wind chill temps valid for tuesday from the 12z GFS. This will be pretty dangerous to be out in people

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-02, 5:21 pm

This is looking more and more like an Arctic anafrontal snow. You only see these once in a blue moon but the accumulations are generally light in the lower elevations



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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-02, 5:49 pm

That is cool Toot! I've read about anafrontal snow before but never really understood. Is that where the front outruns the moisture?

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-02, 6:08 pm

Jed33 wrote:That is cool Toot! I've read about anafrontal snow before but never really understood. Is that where the front outruns the moisture?
Yep..thanks to strong frontogenesis. It also outruns the SW flow to some extent

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-01-02, 7:22 pm

The Last time I remember having one of these fronts I was young. Hearing my dad talk about it he said it rained for  a couple hours then the bottom fell out it snowed everything was frozen up. We ended up with about 6" of snow. Which haven't look at the models yet just got home from work.
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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-02, 11:38 pm

0z GFS has low temps of 1 at Knoxville and Nashville. Looks like an even 0 at MRX Tuesday morning..lol



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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-01-03, 1:02 am

Any word on the possible totals of the Sunday night-MONDAY morning event??

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by windstorm on 2014-01-03, 10:02 am

I seen for next week where there was a 1052 high setting on the USA/Canada border. Now that's cold. This was 60 hours out. Don't know what the lastest shows.  cold 
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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-03, 12:43 pm

Looks like the 12z GFS came in snowier and colder if you could believe that! Has everyone below zero ties bc it puts out 3-5 in across the area!! What a great trend! Let's hope it continues, at least it looks like we may get to the elusive zero!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by jeffmac99 on 2014-01-03, 12:58 pm

Nice I hope those snow totals verify... bounce

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by VFL on 2014-01-03, 1:23 pm

Wow the 12z just went crazy. Holy smokes.
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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by jeffmac99 on 2014-01-03, 2:10 pm

Euro 12z came out and apparently not on board yet for that much snow...I hope it's just playinig catch up and a day or so behind the GFS.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-03, 5:33 pm

Had a high of 23 today pretty dang cold lol. Looks like the 18z GFS is even colder and has slightly more moisture than 12z gonna be interesting to watch this unfold for sure. Been 18 years since I saw a high temp stay below 15 degrees! However it's only been 3 since I saw the low drop below 0. Jan 2011 I was living in S middle TN and after one of those incredible snows ( had about 7in) the temp went down below zero (-1) ironically it wasn't the day after, it was actually a few days later. But still awesome to see!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-03, 6:52 pm

18zGFS



It seems to me the euro is having QPF problems as it did with the last system. Its barely even printing off a couple inches in the mountains

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

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