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Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by snowdog on 2014-01-04, 11:45 am

Jscentraltn wrote:Still really don't see this! Unless the colder air gets here quicker.  The past few runs of the models still show a littler warmer and most of the precip ahead of the front.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ohx&gc=7

12z NAM with 540 thickness line.  Looks like a healthy part of the precip is lagging behind the 540 line.


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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by John1122 on 2014-01-04, 2:35 pm

Just the opposite, the moisture is severely leaving the cold behind on today's model runs.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-04, 3:44 pm

Im expecting about 2-4 on the Nrthern plateau and north west TN with 1-2 around Nashville and the etn valley with around 6-10 in the smokies

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-01-04, 4:47 pm

The NWS has changed my forecast for tomorrow. Put the high up by almost 10 degrees it was high 39 now 47. Also snow acum was 1-3" now around an inch. We need the low to come back east about 100 miles. This will speed up the cold air. Ill take what I get. The AO goes poss for a while then goes neg about the middle of the month! So warm then cold again!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-04, 4:59 pm

Mehhh,,they are reading to much into latest guidance

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-04, 5:02 pm

You cant waffle just because the Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaam stepped back!@ The nam just might be the most unreliable out there!!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-04, 5:33 pm

NAM is known for that. However, GFS went that way too today. What's crazy is the Euro is showing more post frontal moisture than the GFS now. It's been back and forth back and forth with these past two potential systems. I'm just worn out from tracking them. I went up to Alum Cave trail today and saw my 4 inch snow just in case this one busts. I just don't have much confidence in this one producing more than a dusting for us. I may eat crow, but just not feeling it. System appears just like the other night. Decent snowfall until 24-36 hrs and then the moisture just dries up. Guess we'll see soon, but I don't have much faith in this one.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2014-01-04, 6:46 pm

Toot wrote:Mehhh,,they are reading to much into latest guidance

I agree. I might be wrong but I think we will see at least a couple of inches here. Nothing to back it up except I have seen it happen before. I think the change over will happen quicker than the forecast. It happened about 10 years ago with an arctic front and we ended up with 4 inches.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by etnwx on 2014-01-04, 7:20 pm

Are the models still showing a low of -3 for Oakridge?

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-04, 7:51 pm

Give or take. MRX going with low near 0. So, yeah basically. What I don't understand is the distribution of snowfall on today's maps. One band on the western highland Rim tapering off around Nashville and picking up around the plateau, skipping around and picking up again in the Central Valley. Makes for a weird looking snowfall map for sure

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by VFL on 2014-01-04, 8:05 pm

MRX maps and forecast are strange anyway. The difference between my house and the Union Co line is 4-5 miles. They are saying I'll get .5" of snow but 5 miles away in Union Co. will get 2.5".
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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-04, 8:23 pm

Toot wrote:Im expecting about 2-4 on the Nrthern plateau and north west TN with 1-2 around Nashville and the etn valley with around 6-10 in the smokies
Ths is what will happen..ive seen too many of these in the past, It wiil be a very quic accumulation

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-04, 9:02 pm

I've only seen one of these arctic snows and that was in Jan. 1997 in Memphis we had about 4in over a couple hours with insane ratios almost 30:1 ratios at one time they said. Totally un forecasted by Mem, but I remember the night before that Jim Cantore said the latest data was showing a little wave of low pressure forming along the arctic front and to look out Memphis and WTN. The NWS was playing catch up big time to that one. They kept updating every 30 mins and increasing amounts. They went from flurries to snow showers to a snow advisory( haha don't see that anymore) to a WSW but it was too late for the WSW bc 4 in was already on the ground and it was tapering off lol. Wish I had some data on it but I think QPF was only like .15 for 4 in if snow, insane for TN!

Maybe this one will over perform. It just scares me when I see the front appears slower than thought and the thought that the moisture could move out before it gets cold enough is what I'm concerned about. I hope you're right Toot! Would love to see it with the air mass that's coming!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-01-04, 9:16 pm

Hey toot! Just got to waffle one more time Smile just looked at the new NAM that is running it has shifted back to the east by about 30 miles LOL. Im with ya though on the totals. I just wanted more. That's all.
 beer 



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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by etnwx on 2014-01-04, 11:39 pm

Forecast lows tonight are upper 20's to low 30's. Already 26.9, but I'm sure the SW flow will prevent much lower temps soon.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by southeastTNwx on 2014-01-04, 11:53 pm

etnwx wrote:Forecast lows tonight are upper 20's to low 30's. Already 26.9, but I'm sure the SW flow will prevent much lower temps soon.

Meanwhile, I am sitting at 41.9 with a nice southerly breeze blowing. I have been around this temperature for the past several hours, too.
Craziness.


Last edited by southeastTNwx on 2014-01-04, 11:58 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-05, 12:03 am

MRX accumulation forecast


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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-05, 1:34 am

My accumulation forecast

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-05, 5:58 am

MRX goes With WWA for all except smokies and Wise Co. VA. WSW there. Says up to 2 in possible with additional Snow showers Mon. No accum. on Mon. If we can get even a small covering of snow I'd imagine that we will fall below zero, maybe even well below if the wind drops off or in sheltered valleys. Wxsouth is all in on the cold calling it a tick above '85. Forecasts -10 in Knoxville and -17 at Tri. I just don't see that. Even has Birmingham below zero. He's extreme for sure on these numbers. Let's see how much, if any snow cover we have by Mon. night, then reevaluate if we get and can keep it in place ( say that bc the wind might blow it away it's so powdery). Then we can say how low for sure. I figure between -4 and 2 is reasonable at this point for most of us. Guess we'll see.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-05, 6:04 am


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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-05, 7:22 am

Jed33 wrote:Wxsouth is all in on the cold calling it a tick above '85. Forecasts -10 in Knoxville and -17 at Tri. I just don't see that. Even has Birmingham below zero.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-05, 7:49 am

This is the coldest guidance I can find. The canadian


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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2014-01-05, 7:51 am

Lol, yeah he has a couple big FB write ups and of course his blog too. I think he's great at what he does, just think those numbers are too low. We'll see I guess.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by windstorm on 2014-01-05, 9:09 am

They have us forecast for a low of 3. If that happen there will be place in and around Chattanooga below zero. We as of now have a WWA. Up to one inch of snow. They have been playing around with snow totals the last two days. One time yesterday on the NWS site had us as much as two inches then took that away and said really nothing about snow totals. To bad the GOM could not pump up Hugh amounts of moisture at the same time the cold air comes in. Well i will take it. I don't have any choice in the matter even if i didn't .. Only worry here is frz pipes. Other than that am going to get a good chew of tobacco and stay by the fire place. Everyone stay warm.  cold cold cold 
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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

Post by Toot on 2014-01-05, 10:07 am

A look at the airmass headed our way

Current temps

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Re: Arctic Outbreak/Snow Jan 5-8 2013

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