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Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by OakRidgeWeatherGuy on 2014-02-11, 1:41 am

Can someone post the Euro 7pm run map of snowfall please?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 6:19 am

What say you guys this morning? Roughly 30 hours out for east tn. Those models are trending back to big snows. The local forecasters are varying by as many as 2-3 inches.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-11, 7:01 am

I say we got ourselves the best snow in the last 20 years knocking on the door.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 7:16 am

Question is, will the above freezing temperatures allow us to answer the door?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-11, 8:07 am

I don't know the exact science but I believe that the snow line is expeced to be 50/100 miles farther south than what many future cast maps are showing.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 8:14 am

Are you saying a larger snow for the valley neals?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 8:16 am

Overnight Euro. A nice run for East Tenn.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 8:26 am

How much is temp going to affect those numbers?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-11, 8:40 am

Temps will not be a problem..some crazy dynamics will accompany this one...and yes thundersnow will be a possibility in the comma head!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 8:42 am

Temp profiles are perfect for a southern stream storm/over running event. I would take an inch or two off the Euro and I think you'll have it.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 8:44 am

Yeah toot if the deform ban swings through here, thunder is possible.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by windstorm on 2014-02-11, 8:50 am

This first round of snow is showing up in chattanooga big band of snow. Don't know if it is snowing there or not. Because radar don't tell the whole story sometimes. I live 10 to 12 miles NE of there and we have nothing. They have us in a WWA, Weds we are under a winter storm watch with 3 to 5 inches of snow., Other words we are under, well just pick one.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 8:52 am

People here at work are thinking I'm stupid saying that the five inches are a very real possibility. They say the storm will shift due to the stream and take the majority of the storm east. These models are pretty Much in agreement now and snow is guaranteed, correct?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 9:43 am

Is the euro suggesting a statewide event? That map is amazing for all of tennessee

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jed33 on 2014-02-11, 10:13 am

I like the Euro for it's consistency at least, I'll give it that, even if it turns out to be wrong, which I don't know if it is or not, but at least it's consistent. The NAM and GFS are all over the place, something needs to be done to fix the inconsistencies in those 2 models, I never remember the GFS flopping around inside of day 3 as much as it has this year. I am nervous when I look at the NAM esp. 12z just now, but then I look at the RUC and RAP sim radar, and it's way further NW, like the Euro, so I lighten up a little. I just wish there was a consensus on this one, but unfortunately, there isn't. Phasing is what it comes down to, just gonna depend on how quick or at all it phases to pull it NW. Toot, are you still sticking with your 2-4 for E TN

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 10:17 am

So a statewide event even middle gets 5 inches wow that's far off?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jed33 on 2014-02-11, 10:56 am

It appears that the RGEM is a thing of beauty for E TN, but I'm not sure, I'm just going by what I have heard.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 11:39 am

Looks like it is trending more like the euro... Looks like we need to hunker down. This one may very well be a doosy

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-11, 12:20 pm

Ballcoach wrote:Are you saying a larger snow for the valley neals?
I was talking about temps. I don't think temps is an issue here. The valley has a great chance. It will come down to the track of the storm. It's in a real nice place and if it turns north quick the better valley will do with snow.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Greyhound on 2014-02-11, 12:31 pm

I'm new to reading model output, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt. BUT....looking at the 12z GFS, temps look to be a HUGE issue if this is ultimately the solution. Really hope it isn't, and I don't think it will be considering the behaivor of the GFS in regards to this storm....but it's definitely keeping my enthusiasm tempered for the time being. Just my 2 cents worth. Carry on!!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 12:42 pm

Greyhound temps is not an issue. The atmosphere will be cooled by the precept falling to the ground and even at that skew T shows us below 32' almost all the way to the ground
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Greyhound on 2014-02-11, 12:57 pm

Thanks VFL!!! Skew T's is one of the things I'm interested to start learning, but there's a WHOLE bunch of other stuff as well. BTW...NICE Jeep!!!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 1:47 pm

When do the new models come out?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by windstorm on 2014-02-11, 2:47 pm

they are saying still 3 to 5 in Chattanooga. Dewpoint is quiet low and we have 41 right now. Not worry with surface temps as of now. Plenty of cooling should take place. If the NWS don't blow it. Still a WSW IN effect. Next new forecast discussion should come out in a hour or so. Hope everyone on the board get's a good snow with this one.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 2:51 pm

Ok so I'm confused, why did euro show 3-5 inches statewide not only in East Tennessee?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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