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Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 3:16 pm

Is this forecast falling apart for the Knoxville area? Wbir started the morning off with 1-3 prediction... everyone else was much higher, now everyone else has came to that 1-3 Mark. What has caused the drop in amount? Temps?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by etnwx on 2014-02-11, 3:58 pm

Knox County...

Code:
...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 am Wednesday morning
until 7 am Thursday morning...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for snow...which is in effect from 10 am Wednesday
morning until 7 am Thursday morning.

* Event...significant snowfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches will
  be possible.

* Timing...snow will begin mid morning on Wednesday...and will
  continue through Wednesday night.

* Impacts...driving and walking will be dangerous on untreated
  roadways and sidewalks. Be prepared for snow covered roads and
  limited visibilities. Travel is discouraged. If travel is
  unavoidable...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your
  vehicle in case of an emergency.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. In addition...snowfall
intensities will be heavy enough to substantially reduce
visibilities at times.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by etnwx on 2014-02-11, 4:48 pm

Knox county schools are closed tomorrow. rock on

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-11, 4:57 pm

Jed33 wrote:Toot, are you still sticking with your 2-4 for E TN
I think it will be a tight gradient the 2-4 I have on some counties may be a little too low. The more I look at guidance the more I think places like Newport, Maryville, Greenville etc..cities that set up against the mountains are going to get ROCKED! It wont surprise me at all to hear of 10+ inch amounts in those areas. I will do an updated graphic tonight.

I will be riding it out at teh foot of round Mtn near Del Rio, TN.. wish me luck on keeping power and warm..LOL!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 5:45 pm

What's the deal with hurricane hunters dropping sonar is this storm. Saw the wbir tweet. What the purpose of this?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 6:06 pm

Do you guys think the euro has a grip on this system cause if it does, most of tennessee will be very happy.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-11, 6:07 pm

Ballcoach wrote:What's the deal with hurricane hunters dropping sonar is this storm.  Saw the wbir tweet.  What the purpose of this?
To get better data to ingest into models!



My updated graphic

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by wxgeek on 2014-02-11, 6:15 pm

Ballcoach...good model output is dependent on good inputs. They're dropping buoys to get a better fix on the formation of the gulf low for the same reason they do for hurricanes, to improve the forecast.

I like any forecast that gives the Nashville area snow but I'm not counting on any of those being correct. We are in a serious screw zone this year.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 6:39 pm

Toot or anyone, I still need convincing mid levels are good to go. I know dynamic cooling "should" take care of this but as y'all know we've been here and done that before.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-11, 6:51 pm

VFL wrote:Toot or anyone, I still need convincing mid levels are good to go. I know dynamic cooling "should" take care of this but as y'all know we've been here and done that before.
Lol..what exact level temps u wanna see? 700Mb?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-11, 8:17 pm

Looks like the low is getting fired up in the gulf! I wish this thing would track more ne from were it's at than more east! But looking at the gem it even has me getting a couple of inches if it is true. I think this thing still has some wobble room. I won't sleep for watching radar trends tonight. Enjoy your stay toot!!! Post some pics for me. Maybe i will luck out on this one.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-11, 8:47 pm

VFL wrote:Toot or anyone, I still need convincing mid levels are good to go.
I was joking around earlier but in all seriousnes..mid level temps are never a problem with snow around here, its your low level temps that create the "warm nose" on a skew-t/sounding..850-925mb

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by snowman72 on 2014-02-11, 8:54 pm

Toot I think this storm is looking juicy from our where about.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 9:13 pm

RAP blasts Tennessee. BTW the low formed over land not in the gulf. The RAP has picked up on that. Toot I ment low levels. I'm having a bad day. Anyway we're the RAP at 16h

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by connerconner on 2014-02-11, 9:17 pm

Does that mean a farther NW low VFL?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Toot on 2014-02-11, 9:20 pm

snowman72 wrote:Toot I think this storm is looking juicy from our where about.
It is..the more I look at it..it will be the biggest snow here in many years!!

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 9:26 pm

Wow even us in nashville could luck out on this one if that comes to happen! Maybe the euro has been right all along! I can only hope

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Ballcoach on 2014-02-11, 9:29 pm

What is the difference in the low forming over land v over water? Does one mean a stronger storm?

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-11, 9:51 pm

Ballcoach wrote:What is the difference in the low forming over land v over water?  Does one mean a stronger storm?  

I was wrong the low did develop over water but just barely. I think if the RAP is right the snow totals will need to be raised state wide.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 10:05 pm

That's what I'm talkin bout

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 10:13 pm

I just hope the euro run at 2 am holds the idea of statewide accumulations.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Neals on 2014-02-11, 10:47 pm

The cold air is coming from the northeast. The cold air is basically hitting the moisture coming from the south west head to head. I like.  Twisted Evil 

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by connerconner on 2014-02-11, 11:03 pm

NAM 0Z clown maps looking pretty good. Things keep trending better for those of us in E Tn


http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MRX

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-02-11, 11:27 pm

If anyone is up at 2 and can post the euro please do. Lol I have no way of accessing it.

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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

Post by VFL on 2014-02-12, 1:11 am

I'll try and get the 00z if I can. It's running now.
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Re: Significant winter storm possible (Feb 12th-13th 2014)

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