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Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

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Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-16, 8:38 pm

Would post graphics but unable. It looks like things may come together for a damaging wind event for the mid state thur. Stay tuned. (First of 2014) may be a busy severe weather season!
 yikes 

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Re: Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2014-02-17, 7:18 pm

looks like a high shear low cape event unfolding... late Thursday afternoon west tn, early evening mid tn over night east tenn. the lower level jet could increase the threat overnight further east... damaging winds look to be main threat this go around iso tornado embedded amongst the stronger cells in the line itself...

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Re: Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by windstorm on 2014-02-18, 11:59 am

This is from James Spann on the threat of severe weather from Bama to Tenn. Watch it if you like.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf_ogPNm6XU
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Re: Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-18, 5:00 pm

I think if we see any tornados they will be from about I65 west. Mainly west tn down through mississippi. That will be where the dew points will get into the 60's. Going to be a lot of wind!

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Re: Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by Neals on 2014-02-19, 8:25 am

My county was under a tornado watch this morning. The ditches are over running with water and everything.

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Re: Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by wxgeek on 2014-02-20, 5:45 am

AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
210 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CYCLONE 992 MBARS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 07Z WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY. 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET RUNNING UP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD BROKEN OUT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE 850 MBAR DEWPOINT FRONT. AS CYCLONE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 15Z WITH 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL JET MAX WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA BY 18Z WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN ARKANSAS AT THAT TIME. SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INCREASING IN NUMBER AS THE MORNING MOVES ALONG...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A STRONG CAP OVER THE MID STATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON A SQUALL LINE (QLCS) WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE NEARING THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 5 PM CST. I FORECAST THE SQUALL LINE INTO THE CLARKSVILLE AREA AROUND 6 PM CST...NASHVILLE JUST BEFORE 8 PM CST...AND 11 PM ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TIMES ARE NOT ETCHED IN STONE. THE MAIN THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET GOES TO 70 KNOTS RIGHT UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 00Z TODAY WHILE MID AND UPPER JETS HOLD BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER JET ALIGNMENT IS NOT PERFECT FOR TORNADOES HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE I CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SPIN UPS ALONG THE QLCS.

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Re: Severe storms poss thur feb 20th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-02-22, 2:30 pm

We ended up with a little over an 1" of rain,quarter size hail and a funnel cloud. Crazy for about an hour.

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