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Late March 2014 Snow possible

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Late March 2014 Snow possible

Post by Toot on 2014-03-20, 8:58 am

Models are converging on another snow threat!!

Here is my latest writeup from my blog (WXeastern)

Guidance models continue to converge on what looks to be a genuine early Spring Nor'easter! Confidence levels in this snow storm continue to rise by the day and with this system will likely come hefty snow accumulations (for late March) especially on grassy surfaces!

These type of systems are quite rare this time of year but this has been a rare winter so it fits the bill...so to speak. What will be driving this system is a massive upper level ridge out towards the western United States which will carve out an extermely and unusually deep trough of low pressure in the eastern United States for this time of year!

This deep upper level trough will cause a low pressure system to form at the surface in or around the Gulf of Mexico (so it will likely have plenty of moisture to work with) which will track northeastward slinging precipitation back into a frigid airmass that will be dropping down out of Canada.

There is still some uncertainty as to how intense this system will become and exactly where it will track. So..we still dont know EXACTLY how much snow or EXACTLY where it will pile up.

At any rate.. down below is WXeasterns current idea of accumulating snow probabilities for this system.. which looks to occur during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe

And here is Roberts (Wxsouth)

Updated the extended outlook...if you're a monthly member, you should have been notified via email (if you chose that option). Be sure to check your spam folder. Yes, another Winter Storm looks likely, and I'm leaning that it will be further south and west than Even the European shows right now (explained why in discussion). The strong divergence is massive on both GFS and ECMWF on Monday in the Plains so this argues for supressed track but northern stream to dominate and initiate the cyclogenesis process along the Gulf Coast. Two big highs are in place, and crashing heights aloft argue for dynamic cooling to snow levels even further south than Models show right now, including down to Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia before ending possibly. Could be a Major Storm along the East Coast if all ingredients come together perfectly, and the models are trying to tell us that because various runs have shown an extremely deep cyclone bombing just off the East Coast. Very interesting storm coming up,one that will have several twists to it. More snow, ice, wind coming in for beleagered MidAtlantic for sure, but this time probably having more effects further inland and southwest to encompass the TN Valley region and southern Apps as well. Major Cold, record cold, will follow the storm. I'd refrain from jump starting any early gardening just yet, pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the country.

Last edited by Toot on 2014-03-20, 10:13 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Late March 2014 Snow possible

Post by Neals on 2014-03-20, 9:35 am

Oh yeah!


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