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Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

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Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-09-04, 9:29 pm

Major storm system looks to bring much cooler temperatures and strong thunderstorms late into next week

After what will go down as one of the warmest weeks of the summer cooler air will start slipping into the eastern united states with a series of cold fronts beginning this weekend. At first one wont notice much change in temperature but will start noticing less humidity.

The stronger cold front (the one you WILL feel) will likely sweep the Atlantic seaboard by Sept 15th. They're alot of factors that will come into play! So much so.. that guidance models will continue to have trouble determining the smaller details of the changing weather pattern. Just how strong the final cold front is in this series remains to be seen.

However..It will be the strongest seen since last spring!! To make things more interesting.. there could possibly be a tropical cyclone that gets pulled into the mix! Plus..the stronger cold front could spark off the first organized severe weather episode of the fall season.. but these are details that we can work out over the next few days.

I know it sounds crazy but you may want to dust off those jackets and long sleeves.. things are changing!





Last edited by Toot on 2014-12-10, 7:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2014-09-05, 12:29 pm

Good deal. Glad so many people are still watching for what is going to happen this fall/winter.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-09-09, 12:07 pm

Glad to see cooler weather moving in this week. For Tennessee this summer was the second year with below normal temps. Not by much but here in Chattanooga it was below normal with July being the coolest. Rainfall was either below or above depending on where you live in the city. And this fall looks to be above normal. So we will sat back and see what happens. popcorn
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2014-09-13, 7:43 pm

It feels like late October here today.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-09-15, 1:40 pm

Fall is coming fast. Next Monday. 9/22/14. Ready for it. rock on
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2014-09-26, 2:40 pm

I don’t really have anything weather related to discuss. Just wanted to check in, and see who is still around.  I’m looking forward to some good weather discussion when things become more active this fall and winter. I hope everyone is doing well.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-10-01, 3:44 pm

This next front will pack a punch of much cooler air over the weekend. Here a little info for this weekend. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -1 TO -2
DEGREES C FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. popcorn popcorn
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2014-10-02, 12:38 am

This system could also bring the first minor wind event of the season to the foothills of East Tennessee late Thursday night and Friday morning.  The key word is ‘minor’.  It’s definitely not a classic mountain wave scenario, because the LLJ isn’t all that strong and the winds at 850mb will likely be more southwesterly. Also, the strongest area of low level winds won't really make it into the mountains according to the models.  

With that said, I still think peak gusts with these downslope winds could possibly be around 55- 60mph in the most favorable areas.  If this does occur, then the winds of that magnitude would be very isolated. This isn't a big deal, but it is something I'll be keeping an eye on with this system.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-10-05, 9:40 pm

There were some snow flurries on Mt LeConte. And at my house we had some light frost this morning with a low temp of 36 degrees.
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2014-10-06, 1:29 pm

Has anybody got their own winter predictions? I have read a lot about some cold air getting pushed down by the ridge out in Alaska. Meanwhile, the warm moisture getting pushed up from the Atlantic because of the warm waters. Which would make a nice u shaped jet stream over our area. I don't think it occurs at the same time often. However, if it continues we may be in on some good winter storms.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-10-07, 8:06 pm

My winter forecast will be published near the first of November after the AO (Arctic Oscillation) OPI (October Pattern Index) and the SAI (Snow Advance Index) have been monitored for the month of October.

These are three of the best tools out there for making a winter forecast with the chances of any skilled accuracy. . The majority of the time when you have a negative Arctic oscillation in the month of October you also have it throughout the winter. A negative Arctic Oscillation during winter generally means colder than normal for the eastern U.S!!

Below is current and predicted values of the Arctic Oscillation through the middle of October by the european model (The American model looks very similar) and as you can see they are mostly negative which could very well mean a colder than normal winter is in store!




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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-10-08, 7:12 am

Monday about 15 to 20 miles from me they had a EF1 Tornado. Very small Tornado but NWS said winds from est @ 86- 110 MPH. When i mean small it was small. Something about the length of a football field. This happen in a sub - division down in North Ga. Three years ago they had a very bad tornado killing at least, i think 4 people and ripping apart the small town of Ringgold, Ga.   Winter predictions I have seen many so far. Most are pointing to a colder winter for Eastern part of the U.S.. But i am not making one this year. Am at 50% on winter forecast.. So am stopping while am even. Hope for a great winter this year with lot of snow  & cold. I am ready. I don't know if anybody listens to Joe B but he is saying colder & snowy this winter. Can't wait for winter to get started.....
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2014-10-11, 11:51 am

OCI is indeed looking good. popcorn

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by fire rescue87 on 2014-10-11, 2:57 pm

Any thoughts on Monday afternoon and evening? Spc has half the state in in 30% and significant hashed.
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-10-11, 6:46 pm

Best chance for tornadoes that ive seen in a while...severe weather is a given

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-10-11, 6:54 pm

Best chance for tornadoes that ive seen in a while...severe weather is a given

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnwx on 2014-10-12, 11:16 pm

Rainiest October I can ever remember. Have gotten 4.13" so far this month. Suspect

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-10-13, 4:55 pm

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND EAST
TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CHEROKEE AND CLAY. IN EAST TENNESSEE...BLEDSOE...
BRADLEY...EAST POLK...HAMILTON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...
NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...SEQUATCHIE...SOUTHEAST MONROE AND
WEST POLK.
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2014-10-13, 8:04 pm

Hey Wind. Keep us updated on any heavy rain/wind in the Chattanooga area. I'm at the beach now and following the system. Pretty nice light show here for the last hour but no rain. Rained hard this morning a few hours.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-10-14, 5:39 pm

Lot of Rain Grandpa and some wind where i was over in the Hwy 58 area. But i heard very little thunder, I did not see any lighting. Mud slide on Lookout Mt on the tenn side. It now clean up and traffic is moving once again...
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnwx on 2014-10-14, 11:08 pm

5.54" as of 11:07p 10/14/14. 50% chance of more rain tomorrow. Very Happy

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-10-16, 12:06 am

If it were December the moisture/clouds you see in the comma head of the strong low pressure system (same one that was responsible for all the severe weather) would likely be producing snow showers in the OH/TN valley and Southern Appalachian regions!

This type of setup is commonly referred to as upslope/Northwest flow/cold advection snow showers. This impressive sample would likely be dumping several inches in the higher terrain..a reminder to us that winter is right around the corner.


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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-10-16, 6:48 pm

That kind of set up would also if cold enough would send a few snow flurries down our way.
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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnwx on 2014-10-17, 9:22 pm

Total rain for October so far: 6.01". Looks like some seasonal weather coming up.

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2014-10-19, 10:46 am

The Siberian snow cover is doing goou this fall. pals

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Re: Fall wx discussion 2014/2015

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