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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-01, 1:26 am

No comment on weather...... Just saying happy New Years  guys!!!!!!! Hope this year brings plenty of snow for us snow lovers, take care talk soon!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-01-01, 12:11 pm

Updated January outlook from NWS. Very Lame. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ club
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-01-01, 2:56 pm

Good god at the latest european model run..its super cold next week like last January!

850 temps


GFS and CMC a little warmer but still brutal cold




Happy New Years yall sauce

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-01, 8:45 pm

I was looking at that earlier! It is widspread cold... It looks like for now a couple of clippers passing to our north. Im hopeing one of those could dig further south and west.. Haven't been able really to look at anything the last 2 days... Cheers!!!!! Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-02, 12:22 pm

The cold is coming, another thing that we haven't had is a Greenland block which is coming. The models after this rain maker really doesn't prog much precip for us. A couple of clippers to the north that ushers in the artic air.. The lows will be single digits and highs in the 20s for a couple of days. Once we can get that block set up I think we can start looking for our snow chances to increase.. I hope that's soon! We will see.... Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-01-02, 12:54 pm

I have trouble believing an arctic airmass that strong comes thru dry. Even if its light snow they tend to squeeze all the moisture out of the atmosphere

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-01-02, 4:57 pm

If you believe what JB and crew are showing temps are trending colder then this map shows.https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10906225_749358181838603_7649411921191739788_n.png?oh=b2b2105d465381b14d626232b795cf0e&oe=5532371F The are showing single digit lows with highs in the 20's maybe teens where some of you live. We will see. Wouldn't it be something if this was a big bust. Am not a drinking person, but if this did not come true I may start.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-02, 5:42 pm

I know this is a week out, but I'm seeing a real threat for next weekend.. The GFS is showing a system around that time frame but with the 1040 high following that overhead as it moves east the cold air will be there so therefore higher chance for snow and ice event!!!! As for the cold It is going to get really cold! How cold? I know jb and his crew are comparing it to what happened last jan at the same time...

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-02, 11:40 pm

Next weekend!!!!! I'm going to look at every model run to see how it changes with this storm... But with the way the pattern is shaping up, its time for me to get excited again... But everytime I've been burnt so far!! Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-03, 11:32 am

Well the storm is still there on the gfs the last 3 runs! 12 z looking pretty good for tn... It is a week away so things will change, but I'm pretty confident that there  will be a winter storm very close to our area next weekend. The artic air continues to press south with a front next fri and that's when 1 if not 2 storms develops. the details?  Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-01-03, 12:41 pm

Man..guidance just keeps going colder with the Arctic outbreak..I still think there will be some light snow along the arctic front despite models not really showing it. Looks like we may stay below freezing for three days with low temps flirting with 0 for a couple days. I can already here water pipes bursting..lol

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-03, 12:46 pm

Guys check out these wind chills, it is going to be  very very cold! All the way to the gulf coast... Take care!



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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-04, 1:21 pm

Still feel pretty good about next weekend. The cold will stay, as that next artic front stalls south of us fri. thats when a storm will develop, the path is going to change a lot but we are in a good spot with this pattern. I just hope when the systems merge this thing really explodes and wraps up.... Very Happy we will see ! Still 5 or 6 days away!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-01-05, 7:15 am

GFS and its ensembles now picking up on the band of snow I was talking about along the arctic front. Wont be much but it will be high rate stuff. The wind will be so harsh that it may just blow it away tho

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-05, 1:54 pm

It looks like a quick hitting dusting or 1/2 inch... Like you said it will be blown everywhere. I'm still thinking this weekend gets interesting around here. The pattern is right for a decent storm for us.. I was looking at accu weather this morning and old Henry m. Was saying it looks like feb before any snowstorms. All I can say is whatever!!!!!! He said the cold would not be as bad as last year it would be in and out, last year he said it lasted for weeks. Thats just not the case! He gets paid to tell the weather, I dont.... I'm just saying stat the facts man... Rant for the day!  Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-01-05, 5:48 pm

This guy's name
Henry
Margusity. I don't know anything about him. thanks. P.S. Getting a New Davis weather station Tuesday. Stay warm.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-07, 10:13 am

Hey windstorm! Hope you are enjoying your new weather station.... Well I hope everyone is prepared, the artic air is here and is going to stay around until sun or so, this long below freezing will take a tole on the heat units, water pipes, also on the power grids after some time of all the demand at once... Looking at the pos storm late this weekend, it is still there the models are still all over the place as far as precip and timing. I don't see the cold leaving to fast it will moderate some so therefore pos ice.. Check back later....... Stay warm!

cold

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-01-07, 12:27 pm

Thanks got it yesterday. Looking at it now with a temp of 29.3. Not much wind chill now, but should pick up as the day wears on. Few Sn Flurries flying around.  I be glad when and if we get some LP coming out of the GOM and things start setting up for a good snow. Not those clippers. Where am at,clippers don't do anything for us down this way for the most part. Every once in a great while we may get a 1 to 3 inch snow from it. What we need to start seeing is some big time set up for a good Snow Storm in Tenn. Of course this cold spell is about the biggest event so far in the New Year. Well stay warm all. cold
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-07, 12:41 pm

Yeah! I think we might get in on some action  late weekend into early next week... The models show 2 systems the first one weak with some overrunning,maybe some ice with that. Then the next late mon into tue stronger and colder with snow pos... We will see if the 2 can phase that would be real nice! It still is about 4-5 days away so plenty of time.... It looks like after that moves though, another outbreak of artic air, looks colder than this! That is off the 12z (gem).... Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2015-01-07, 2:25 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Yeah! I think we might get in on some action  late weekend into early next week... The models show 2 systems the first one weak with some overrunning,maybe some ice with that. Then the next late mon into tue stronger and colder with snow pos... We will see if the 2 can phase that would be real nice! It still is about 4-5 days away so plenty of time.... It looks like after that moves though, another outbreak of artic air, looks colder than this! That is off the 12z (gem).... Very Happy
You dont want the 2 systems to phase, it would cause the storm to cut west of the mountains. IMO I like where next week is headed right now and mods are starting to show a +PNA and -AO/NAO.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-01-07, 2:41 pm

I will take.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2015-01-07, 6:15 pm

Deal me in, too.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-01-07, 7:47 pm

Damn its already 10 degrees here..lol here is what the HRRR says overnight lows will be cold


Stay warm out there guys

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by fire rescue87 on 2015-01-07, 8:07 pm

14° here and dropping.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-07, 8:10 pm

I'm with you toot! Setting at 10.2 wind chill -3.... I'm going to post the 10 day euro total snowfall, control run.. I know the models are not in great agreement, but the pattern is right for this. Also some will look at the models and say it's going to be to warm...... Beware. Artic air is dense and the models don't account for this.. My local forecasters are saying Sunday high 45? I'm seeing with this first wave some ice, followed by a snow event.. Last time I posted a snow map I got burnt by the euro.. But here it is enjoy Very Happy


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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