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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-15, 1:46 pm

12z euro went further south and east is a weaker storm. The gfs, canadian, are both coming to this solution. In the next day the track should come evident. The storm I think will be stronger than advertised by all models. We will see!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-15, 2:12 pm

I'm afraid WAA will be a major problem for the valley.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-15, 4:40 pm

Here is the control run of snow totals off of the 12z euro.. a lot of the essembles match this pretty close... Fun times.. Very Happy


Last edited by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-15, 5:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-15, 5:02 pm

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by skillsweather on 2014-12-15, 5:39 pm

Hey I heard that a lot of models are dimming down on the totals big time. However I hope we still have a shot at something. Do you have an updated model snowfall graphic that you feel is likely to be how this plays out. I wanna know how much snow to expect.

Thanks

Btw I will be happy with 1-2 inches honestly. I just hope there still is a decent shot for it.. Tired of the past few winters with jack squat.. East tn lucked out much more I think last few years though.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-15, 5:51 pm

Skills it's hard at this point to really know or say! What the models have done is slowed the development down of the low. If you look at the euro run it is less with totals, but the control run Still shows the impressive numbers. The placement of where it will occur is in question. You also have to know that a lot of the time the euro is overdone when it shows its snow totals. Once the models start coming together we will know for sure, but to say right now how much snow falls and where..... I'd be crazy! Maybe tomorrow evening. I do know we will have many chances for a big storm soon!... 
Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by skillsweather on 2014-12-15, 6:08 pm

Yeah, I am really pumped. Cant wait hopefully this year plays out good for both of us.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-15, 6:42 pm

In other winter weather related news the Arctic Oscillation is now forecast by ensembles to tank..some even down below -3..lol and the NAO looks to follow going negative near Christmas!

When u got these two on ur side u can about bet its fixing to get cold and snowy...



The 2009/10 winter analog seems to be working out right on schedule!!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by skillsweather on 2014-12-15, 6:54 pm

Thats good them 2 years was the best we have had here in Middle Tennessee since 2003 I would say.. 2003 that 1 snow was my favorite of all though. Mainly because it was a surprise and I love surprise snowstorms Or ones that overplay Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-15, 7:00 pm

-AO/NAO is guaranteed east coast snow storm.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2014-12-16, 6:05 pm

Toot, how do you think our communities will do with the first wave? Pville, Del Rio, Hartford, Cosby, etc..

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-16, 9:57 pm

Long day at work! Anyways looking at the models, still same mess! The 0z nam just came in I like what it is doing, it is colder and a stronger storm.. I'm sure the other models will come to some agreement. Maybe! When it starts.... The model waffle fan! Very Happy.....

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-17, 9:19 am

Well the GFS is back on track for colder weather for now. Maybe the GFS will lock into this patten for a while. And maybe things will start to turn in the direction for a cold and snowy winter ahead. If you live by the GFS it will break your heart many times. Suspect
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-17, 10:13 am

Christmas Day has my full attention.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-17, 11:10 am

Am just wondering with the GFS showing snow around that time, if this is more wrap around moisture after the fact.?? I kind of think it might be for the Chattanooga, Tn area. Just my thinking if it happens.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-17, 6:01 pm

Neals wrote:Toot, how do you think our communities will do with the first wave? Pville, Del Rio, Hartford, Cosby, etc..
Its really a fine line here..right now im not comfortable saying whether it will be a cold rain or several inches of snow its that close IMO. Hopefully we get some better data now that the energy in question has entered NOAA'S radiosonde (weather balloon) network

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-17, 6:39 pm

I have seen little systems like this over perform! My temp has went from 41 to 34.5 in just 2 hrs.. It looks like a lot of convection to my west moving in. I don't need frz rain....

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Pman1618 on 2014-12-17, 8:28 pm

Temp already down to 32 here in Lebanon...this could get interesting for the morning commute

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-17, 9:24 pm

It's already colder than my forecasted low! Also not a cloud in the sky yet.....

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-18, 9:42 am

I know it's early in the season but I'm getting concerned about this winter. Like i said in another post the models have been showing a pattern flip 2 weeks away but ever time we get in to range it changes back to seasonable temps. I'm not going in to freak out mode but I was certain it was on going in to Christmas week and beyond but now it's been pushed back again. I hope this is just a fluke.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-18, 5:53 pm

VFL wrote:I know it's early in the season but I'm getting concerned about this winter. Like i said in another post the models have been showing a pattern flip 2 weeks away but ever time we get in to range it changes back to seasonable temps. I'm not going in to freak out mode but I was certain it was on going in to Christmas week and beyond but now it's been pushed back again. I hope this is just a fluke.
Huh? All trusted guidance products still show the breaking down of the polar vortex in the Arctic region with higher latitude blocking showing up a day or two before christmas near Greenland stretching all the way into the Arctic circle (-AO/NAO). Thats the only change I was expecting..the tend for a ridge out west and trough in the east has been going since last winter. That really hasnt changed that much. Powerful polar front looks like it comes roaring through about Christmas eve


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-18, 10:05 pm

Another long day at work! Anyways, The nam coming in now is showing more moisture for the mid state for fri night - sat morning and colder.... Who knows right now! The models are doing a bad job with so much energy all over the place and with a busy southern branch.. The storm for Christmas has still got my attention.. Some models show that storm dropping to 965 mb pressure....  It will be windy and cold. I'm not saying a word about snow for now! Still 6 days away.... The models still don't know what will happen fri night..... Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-19, 7:51 pm

I'm still happy with the overall pattern that is coming, it is going to get cold! The southern stream stays alive... It just sucks watching this system passing to the south after getting pumped over watching the euro with that system..... The storm next week, I still can't get a handle on what is going to happen! Anyways I will continue to look at the models as they come in... The Nam is down for a few days.  Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-21, 8:39 am

Once again!!!!!! After the models for the last 3 or 4 days showing a power house storm wrapping up... The last 2 runs of the models have strung the energy out, therefore it does not bomb out it just moves on though pretty quick... Giving us a chance of a snowshower on the tale end.
gaah

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-21, 10:39 pm

The 0z nam still is further east and colder.. Thus giving us a better chance for some snow showers Christmas eve.... Still a model battle. But the euro did come east as well, that is the 12z run... Waiting on the 0z gfs and euro to run... The 18z gfs had still a stronger storm moving right up the i65 corridor but warmer.... Amazing no solution within 24 to 48 hrs before the event!!! Anyways goodnight!!!!!

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