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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-10, 8:09 pm

Yeah Jed! I was looking at that, I'm sure the waffle will continue, I was looking at a lot of the essembles and a lot of them are north with the snow even the euro mean and control run.... But a lot of members had the whole state getting crushed!  But with that fresh artic air coming in sat and sun I just don't see it getting that warm by mon.. I just hope no ice!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-10, 8:14 pm

I agree guys I just looked at the models, it looks like it went north a bit. I hope things will come back to us.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-10, 8:20 pm

The 12z GFS giveth and the 18z taketh away...arctic air has been a negative sign for snow this year. Im not buying into it JUST YET...lol

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-10, 8:36 pm

Yep as much as I would like for it to work out like the euro, I just can't buy it yet. The way this winter is, we would want it to show a foot down into Fl and then when it was go time we would be just right lol

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnwx on 2015-02-10, 9:02 pm

Jed33 wrote:Love the 12z suite of models. Did not like 18z GFS at all. Of course the euro and cmc don't run at 18z. There is potential, but we need to hope the euro is right, and maybe trends colder. 18z GFS went way north.

Isn't the 18z GFS known to be a little flaky? Or is that only in the summer?

And I mean flaky aside from the disaster the models have been this winter.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-11, 5:27 am

The last couple of model runs have been absolutely terrible for us. We went from a possible snow storm to a rain, I'm expecting on the the next run to have thunderstorms and temps in the 60s. I'm bummed.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-11, 5:54 am

No worries!!! Snowman72.... That is the theme this winter... The euro 0z went way warm from its 12z run.. The gfs 0z went colder from its 12z run.... The new 6z run of the GFS said I like the euro.... But the 0z Canadian said I'll give the whole state the snow they want.... It is still 5 days away, so try not get caught up on a run to run right now.... By sat we will know what's up..... Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-11, 6:47 am

Haha got to laugh at these solutions. The cmc is a 2 wave event for most of the state. The 6z GFS tried to have something like it too, but forced the 2nd wave down deep into MS, AL, GA, and even north FL. That 2nd wave, if it develops might be the ticket, as it's so quick that the atmosphere doesn't have time to warm up before the wave gets here. Only the Canadian had it at 0z.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-11, 4:12 pm

For what it is worth right now!!!! Looking at a lot of the essembles I know the 6z gfs and 0z euro were further north and warmer, but they say it runs south and a lot of members are showing this now, so can it be 5 days out and be right? Lol.... But here is the low placement ideas from the 12z euro and snowfall as well... I like it Very Happy 



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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-11, 4:14 pm

12z Canadian is still nice too!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-11, 5:15 pm

Just got home from work and wow the models changed from yesterday.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-12, 5:53 am

WOOF

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2015-02-12, 7:17 am

Still there Jed?

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 7:57 am

Looking more and more like a cold rain early next week. With wrap around snow maybe.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-12, 8:42 am

Plenty of time to figure this one out guys. 6z GFS was about 100mi south of 0z and the GEFS was colder than the op. The ukmet and euro are both memorable snowstorms. Are they right? Don't know. If they are the whole state gets burried. Talking 6-12 plus more in the western part of the state. Mrx didn't have the 6z data when they issued that forecast earlier. It might have made a difference. Even so, we need to hope the trends keep up today. We could use another 75-100 mile south push of the low. We'd be ok though if the euro and ukmet are right, and still get 3-6 if the GFS was right. We will just have to see what transpires. It's worth noting that should the GGEM verify, we may have a destructive ice storm on our hands.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2015-02-12, 10:19 am

Ok, windstorm had me confused. I thought things had been trending in our favor.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-12, 10:45 am

Im really interested in what the 12zGFS comes out with...those EURO and UKMET snowfall graphics also include freezing rain and sleet so they're a bit misleading. Course we got to get this in the nam range too

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-12, 10:50 am

And here comes some streamers!!!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 11:10 am

I'll take it.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 11:14 am

I posted another post on here but don"t see it. Oh well. One year ago today was when here in Chattanooga we got 7.5 inches of snow.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-12, 11:37 am

Somebody want to start a thread? Ive not had much success this winter with starting threads. The GFS just fell into the UKMET AND EURO camp...looks like its mostly an all snow event here now if the GFS is correct and a long durarion one at that


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 11:52 am

that look would put my on the boarder line....
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 11:54 am

The placement of the low in that picture is to close to me. Needs to back down 50 to 75 miles.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-12, 11:59 am

WOOF WOOF WOOF

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-12, 12:15 pm

windstorm wrote:that look would put my on the boarder line....




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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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