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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-12, 12:17 pm

The Canadian is EPIC!!



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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 12:21 pm

that one looks much better for me
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 12:31 pm

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-12, 12:32 pm

Might have to open it with a program on ur pc. dk.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-13, 11:15 am


James Spann

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Ten Things To Know About Winter Weather Forecasts
James Spann | 7:54 am February 13, 2015

This is a great piece from Rick Smith, one of our WeatherBrains hosts, who is also the Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) for the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma. He wrote this for those that live in Oklahoma, but it is also applicable for people in Alabama. Thought it would be very appropriate to post this today…..

1. Not everyone in a winter storm warning will get a lot of snow and ice. Some will get nothing at all.

2. It’s very unlikely that any snow amount forecast – especially days in advance – will be exactly right. Consider it to be a range of possibilities. Also, those lines on maps dividing snow from sleet from rain look very precise, but they actually have very fuzzy edges.

3. In many cases, we’re better at forecasting the general location of where the heaviest snow will happen rather than the exact forecast amounts. Don’t focus so much on the exact numbers.

4. We try to provide you with our best forecast of snow/sleet/ice amounts as far in advance as we can. The first forecast numbers won’t usually be as good as the ones closer to the event. That’s just the way it is.

5. Often there will be a very small area, maybe a county wide, of heavy snow embedded within the main snow band. It is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where this will set up in advance. That’s what we mean when we say “isolated higher amounts.”

6. If you want the most accurate and up-to-date information, you will have to check the forecast several times a day. Otherwise, you’re working with old information.

7. People tend to focus on and remember the highest number, even if it’s from a forecast they heard days ago. This is especially true if they want it to happen. If you want it to snow, you’ll probably focus on the 6 inch amount if the forecast says “3 to 6 inches”.

8. Forecasts from the media, NWS, armchair social media forecasters, and the guy who cuts your hair who knows someone who took a meteorology course in college often get lumped together, and attributed to the generic “they”. If the haircut guy says he heard it could snow 8 inches, and everyone else says 2 to 4, many people will remember only that “they say we’re going to get 8 inches of snow.” And if there’s not 8 inches of snow, all the forecasters get the blame.

9. The volume of social media posts about snow is not necessarily directly proportional to the amount of snow we’re actually going to get. It seems like the more people are talking about it, the worse it’s going to be, but that’s not always the case.

10. Having too much snow forecast information can be confusing. Anyone can post an image of the computer model’s snow forecast. That doesn’t make it accurate or reliable. Social media has made it too to easy to share this kind of information. Choose your information sources wisely and don’t blindly share forecasts with big numbers.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-13, 11:29 am

well said and well put ..

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-17, 4:05 pm

Here is the 4km NAM snowfall for the system moving in tomorrow.  Obviously, the snow ratios will be higher than the 10:1 used on the graphic. This is the type of event where some areas could get some decent snow in some of the heavy bands.


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-18, 7:45 am

Snowing IMBY ground is white with a temp of 24. Low this morning 17. uh oh
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-18, 9:47 am

Getting decent snow here in Dandridge. I would say we have close to an inch or a little over..

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-18, 10:51 am

Picked up about 1.25 with the first round of snow today. Steep lapse rates will develop in the lower levels over the next few hours in East TN. This will extend through the snow growth region, as 850mb temps drop below -12C. This will create the convective snow bands. Starting to see evidence of that on radar around and north of Knoxville.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-18, 11:22 am

got about 2 inches here on bluff mtn .. still snowing pretty good

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-18, 1:17 pm

Greeneville webcam from a few minutes ago.


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-18, 1:18 pm

We white out conditions here for about 20 mins dropped about an inch of snow during that time

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-18, 5:40 pm

Got about 4inches here about 1800 up near Del Rio

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2015-02-19, 7:26 am

Does anyone have any thoughts about that nastiness showing up around the 27th on the models?

Edit: never mind in just saw a thread that has been stared for it.


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by etnwx on 2015-02-19, 4:56 pm

Low of 1.2 this morning. Some pics below from the freezing rain and sleet...


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2015-02-21, 2:17 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1253 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
FOR A BRIEF TIME WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW DINING ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ATTEMPTING TO SWITCH PRECIP TO
RAIN AT TYS WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHILE TRI
IS UNDERGOING THERMONUCLEAR WARMING
DUE TO ADIABATIC PROCESSES.
MASS OF HEAVIER RAIN YET TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT SO FLIGHT WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
LATER IFR WITH A LITTLE LIFR THROWN IN FROM AROUND 07-14Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

ITS OVER FOLKS!!!


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-21, 4:25 pm

Lol I saw that too thermonuclear warming cRaZY!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-22, 3:00 pm

I don't know what the outcome will be..... But watching radar trends out west, verses model trends, models were way south with the precip shield, moisture shield is still moving ne, at this point if it moves due east most of the mid state will have some moderate precip by later tonight just by looking at radar....

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Neals on 2015-02-22, 10:52 pm

Maybe I am crazy but I see a nice low with a nice track for my area for my area around the 23rd/24th. Especially if the northwest trends continue.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-23, 1:29 am

Tuesday morning possibility for parts of East Tennessee.

NAM


4km NAM



GEM


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-23, 10:31 am

There also may be something for Thursday. Keep watching. Always depends on the track.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-23, 10:35 am

as far as snow for my area this is what it is forecasting for tuesday and thursday. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kcha.txt We will see.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-23, 10:41 am

Yeah!!!  The nam continues to come further north and stronger with that storm for late wed - thur... If the other models trend this way, it will be something to watch. The 0z Canadian was showing it as well.. Could dump a good swath of snow.. We will see...

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-23, 3:47 pm

The 18z Nam just got a little more interesting for late tonight and tomorrow morning for parts of East Tennessee. This setup got my attention last night because of an inverted trough extending over the mountains of TN. This setup is aided by a Cold Air Damming type of flow in NC.  This forces wind over WNC to have an easterly component, and this could cause convergence along  the mountains over East TN.  You can see this on the 4km NAM winds with the arrows coming together near the mountains. This could enhance lift over that area.



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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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