WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Page 3 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9 ... 15  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-22, 8:41 pm

Rainy and windy weather ending as some snowshowers... Is what will happen with this storm! The next couple of storms to follow this up we will be on the warm side it looks like again, colder air will be knocking but I don't think it will make it down far enough for us to get any decent snows as of now.... It just depends were this front stalls as it moves though wed afternoon... Then storms will form and ride along that boundary! Time will tell... But!!!!! I'm really not excited about it after everything that has been happening with the models of lately... Merry Christmas everyone.....

santa

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-22, 8:59 pm

Yeah I agree. Every time mods look promising they push the cold back or take it away. This is the trend I posted about a couple weeks ago.
avatar
VFL
Member

Posts : 367
Join date : 2012-04-10
Age : 42
Location : North Knox County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 8:12 am

Ive not seen any models push back the cold..what I have seen is people on different forums freaking out over every model run..lol not the way you use guidance models! Everything looks right on schedule to me

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by underdawg45 on 2014-12-23, 10:33 am

Toot
So are we getting snow for Christmas or not???

underdawg45
Member

Posts : 30
Join date : 2013-01-15
Location : dandridge tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 10:48 am

underdawg45 wrote:Toot
So are we getting snow for Christmas or not???
Looks like the rain may end with some light snow showers Christmas eve into Christmas but the surface low looks to be too far north for any accumulations aside from some light ones in the higher elevations

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by underdawg45 on 2014-12-23, 10:49 am

Better luck next time

underdawg45
Member

Posts : 30
Join date : 2013-01-15
Location : dandridge tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 10:53 am

underdawg45 wrote:Better luck next time
Looks like a couple of decent chances at accumulating snow in and around the new year holiday

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-23, 11:34 am

New Years eve/day looks good per GFS but a week ago or so Christmas week looked good. Hope this one will hang on.
avatar
VFL
Member

Posts : 367
Join date : 2012-04-10
Age : 42
Location : North Knox County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 12:25 pm

So is Uncle Sid RIGHT. Just for fun, Because ther weather board is kind of slow. I while am at it. I want to which everyone one the board a Very MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR. So tell me, Uncle Sid is also one of those who looks to nature to plan his firewood preparedness. I asked him the other day what he thought his winter’s weather will look like and he said, “Well, Aunt Sadie bought herself a brand new pair of flannel pajamas and that is a sure sign of a cold winter at our house. But, it looks like to me that all the signs point to somewhat of a mild winter in these parts.” Asking him what he puts his predictions on he told me, “The wooly worm is showing colors of a mild winter with pretty close to normal temperatures for this winter. There sure are a lot of them and they have fairly wide rust colored bands. Their coats are not that thick either, which usually means a pretty normal winter this year.”
stupid
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 1:17 pm

Lol The wooly worms are wrong alot too.. They had the same colors last year as they did this year..we all know how cold it wuz last winter. Offically winter just started yesterday tho..im already at 12 inches of snow this season. Got a nice 10 incher with that halloween bowling ball Smile

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 1:51 pm

well we are still waiting for some snow here and cold. I never really payed any of attention to those old saying. But some of the old tales may have something.But for me, i will stick with models, charts. Toot are there a link i can get into that shows the New GFS. Thanks and a Merry Christmas to you and ur family and all here on the board/... As i write this, it is raining and thundering
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 1:57 pm

windstorm wrote: Toot are there a link i can get into that shows the New GFS. Thanks and a Merry Christmas to you and ur family and all here on the board/... As i write this, it is raining and thundering

The parallel GFS can be seen on tropical tidbits site for free
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/

And Merry Christmas to you too windstorm rendeer

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 2:03 pm

Thanks rendeer
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Math/Met on 2014-12-23, 3:02 pm

Toot wrote:what I have seen is people on different forums freaking out over every model run..lol not the way you use guidance models!

Good point. I wish more people understood this.

Math/Met
Meteorologist

Posts : 226
Join date : 2011-12-05

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 9:16 pm

Still seeing a pattern change between now and New Years or day or two after. It coming as far as cold weather, but to pin point it down is the hard part. Looks like when it does it may head down into Texas and move east. Either way it coming. scared
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 9:20 pm

We are getting a good rain. Already up to 1.70...Some wind damage early today south east of me. Nothing hear.
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 9:49 pm

avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-26, 10:15 am

Latest thoughts

I think the colder pattern will continue be a step down process typical of weak el ninos. To me it looks like the core of the first Arctic intrusion drops out west but quite a bit of the arctic air still makes it here setting the stage for possible snow/sleet/ice near teh New year.

This first wintry threat of January will depend on how the southwest ULL/shortwave behaves and how far it digs as it moves east. We'll have better idea on that when it gets onshore and is sampled better. Then..I think we reload with maybe a clipper and a warmup due to prefrontal ridging/warming from a lakes cutter late in the first 7 days of January.

After that passes I think the second Arctic intrusion sends the core of the cold into our backyard around Jan 11th-12th. By this time the pattern would have allowed the hudson bay Vortex and Pacific ridging to have done their dirty work.. putting most of the conus in a deep trough.

Would also expect a couple more winter storm threats here with that pattern in place in what is... not ideal but conducive conditions for wintry weather in Tennessee

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-26, 1:36 pm

Thanks Toot. Until the ridging or what ever you want to call it relaxes Nothing can really get too far south. I have seen a 1059 high on the map, and normally if it was in a good position that would mean single digits and below zero temps But it sitting in the wrong place for us too feel the full affects of something that strong. That's a monster high pressure. And if we had snow cover across the U.S. It would be brutal for us. But when it sitting in Montana that not good. Am not saying the cold is not coming, am just saying if things were too line up better it would be a lot difference. Of course something that strong if it were to come down would shut the door on the GOM. Here a map 240 hours out and i know this is dream land, but you can see on the map the heavy snow is more out too our west and middle part of Tenn. Of course there are some heavy stuff north of me and along the Smokie Mt chain..  Here the New GFS for what it worth at 240 hours.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122612/gfsp_asnow_eus.html P.S. Would you think this ridging or like i said what ever you want to call it, is going to be a major problem for us this winter ??? Thanks...
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-26, 4:02 pm

No..I dont think it will be that big a problem. I think the first half of January does favor west Tennessee in regards to winter precip more than it does east TN cause of the SE ridging. But like last year once that PV gets established in eastern North America setup it squashes and washes that ridging out into the open Atlantic.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-26, 5:28 pm

I know you posted the other day toot about the new gfs!! Just looked at it, it has a snow coming thur night into the day fri for most of not all the whole state... With the cold air that we do get, if the precip comes in waves we may have a better chance at snow. Than it just being one big storm it will be warmer and cut toward the lakes... Do you think that has a chance toot!

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-26, 7:12 pm

I think it really all depends on how the ULL/shortwave behaves. Models are still changing with aspects of it every run. That tells me the're having trouble with handling it correctly. If they are handling it correctly I would expect some sleet/ice/snow that eventually changes over to all rain. If they are not handling it correctly your gonna see some wild swings all of a sudden..lol I put my money on the wild swings!!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-27, 11:01 am

One thing i notice back in the fall of the year as forecasters were forecasting another cold winter, maybe not as cold as last year, was the amount of warm water just off the east coast. No one really said anything much about it. It kind of got my attention. Well it still here and things keep getting push back to 20 or 30 days from now. All models have been bad this year so far. I know I should have said something months ago about the warm water off the East coast but didn't. And looking at things this morning it keeps pumping that ridge in here for days to come. Yes it does relax a little but then, BAM it back. Lot of people are now looking to mid month for any major cold to set in .. This is most of the time the coldest time in the south for us. And there are other times. But as a rule mid to late month. Guys we know that the weather can turn on a dime anytime it wants, but looking at long ranges modeling, it just don't look like something too cheer about. And we all know how watching weather models go. Here today, gone in the same day. I have not hit the panic button by no means, but since i have nothing to do, I was thinking about a lot of nonsense I guess. I know this makes no sense but it a slow day here at the farm. Have a good one everyone. yak
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-27, 11:53 am

In dec there has been a lot of pacific air in the mix, that air is cool but not cold.... Things are changing! Artic air is getting into the mix, I know the se ridge is there, it is going to relax. The models suck right now! Once the artic air gets down this away I don't think it will be pushed out as quick as the models show. the artic air is more dense.. Therefore poss ice events!!! Speaking of models some are showing another low forming mon night-tue as the cold air arrives (nam) (gem).. The other don't have this so ... Speaking a week away no clue, when they can't even handle what's here today or tomorrow... No worries it's coming!!!! When?  Very Happy

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-27, 1:13 pm

When the mods started pushing back the cold back at the end of November I said then I didn't like it. Now we are still pushing it back. I've seen this trend before and for whatever reason the mods are just struggling this year. I'm not a mod expert by any means so I look at how the weather is trending and I'm not liking the trend we are in. Jmo
avatar
VFL
Member

Posts : 367
Join date : 2012-04-10
Age : 42
Location : North Knox County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 9 ... 15  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum