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Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-27, 1:58 pm

I think this pattern that we are going into will be colder... Because of the artic push. What I don't understand is with the split flow that we will have and the bad modeling, how can they continue to take these storms to the lakes if we have the artic air pushing down? I can see this with the pacific air that we had, but with the artic air coming in how can the outcome be the same? It will be frustrating times ahead men!

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-27, 3:59 pm

Another thing that has my attention is what the nam continues to show for mon night and tue time frame. It has been consistent in showing this.... Yall may think I'm crazy but I think it is poss for this... I may not do well for me here in middle tn, but you guys up east may get a little snow from it... After all it is the only one showing it... Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-27, 4:13 pm

On the next big storm to effect us by next weekend, maybe it can break the cycle that we have had the last month or 2.... I know it is way early it will become clear by tue-wed for its path. But the nw trend is the theme so far... Maybe this one will duck and run!!!! Lol.

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-27, 9:36 pm

Once again the 0z nam coming in even looks stronger with this poss mon night - tue sneak attack! Anyways!!!! 
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-28, 5:36 pm

Alright 18z runs in... ???????? Same thing. Rain,rain,rain... Oh! Did I say rain.... Smile  anyways...

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-28, 5:48 pm

Euro and Canadian are much different..they track the ULL right across the state

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-28, 6:15 pm

Yeah! I posted on the other thread when I seen them 2 come out earlier today.... GFS sucks... It does look a little different as well.. Maybe with that artic air the models will still adjust it further se. I just don't see how that thing can go so far north with that cold of air in place? The gfs wipes all the cold out within a 24hr period..

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-28, 6:17 pm

Can a model expert explain to the board as best they can why the mods are having such a hard time this season? Typically the euro is pretty good from 7-10 days and it's been awful so far. I look at globals for fun but I'm not educated enough to figure this out on my own. Thanks.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-28, 8:33 pm

I'm with ya on that vfl! I've always had an interest in weather, but just the last couple years just started looking at the short and long range models. To try and figure it out own my own without looking at the local weather guy... This year has been up and down with each model....

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-28, 9:32 pm

I know this should go somewhere else, but where are all the other poster's? I miss the good discussions! Maybe soon I guess..

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by underdawg45 on 2014-12-28, 9:51 pm

I'm a lurker. Don't know jack squat about maps or weather, but I enjoy following it in the winter

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-29, 12:34 pm

The main problem is that cutoff low in the SW..that thing has been modeled for weeks it seems like. Models dont handle those very well and when u get one that big and stays in the models range for weeks at a time it causes chaos

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-29, 1:48 pm

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 12:24 pm

As long as we stay in this split flow and with these big artic highs coming in, I don't see us getting anything other than cold rains, looking though almost the middle of the month the core of cold that comes in gets blasted off though the Midwest, Great Lakes, northeast. We cool down but nothing that will hold as the southern stream stays active.. That's all I have to say about that! Smile

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 12:30 pm

I feel like saying!!! It's just way to much warm air to overcome..... I don't know who used to say that on here?  Very Happy

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 12:54 pm

As I typed the above statements... I go and look at the new GFS and BAM!!! I don't think that extrem but it's cold!! Bring it....


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by VFL on 2014-12-30, 1:17 pm

Looks to me like that's showing 30' temps below normal.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 1:46 pm

It was showing a couple of nights below zero for lows... That's cold but I don't know if that will be to that extreme.. It is a week away... We have seen the trend so far! It does get colder after this system this weekend.. With more systems coming up it looks good...

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-30, 5:03 pm

If we get the cold, it will be cold and dry. But the GFS is alway subject to change. I hope this time it is right. By the way, the one's looking at the new GFS, How do you like it ??? I know so far all the models have been bad this year so far. So this may not be the time to ask this. Also watch out Fla fruit growers if this comes true...
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 5:21 pm

I've only looked at the new gfs a few times! They all have struggled, but to be honest I think with storm track the reg gfs has won out so far this winter... Every time it shows a storm it takes it to the lakes and the outcome has been to the lakes! I don't like it because it means all rain for us...the same with this storm coming. from the beginning it has showed this and has not really backed off, it looks to be spot on again...

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-30, 5:52 pm

I think the ridging that is in place right now is causing the Lows to track N and W of us, keeping us on the warm side with rain. If course i could be wrong. It so hard for everything to come together to get a good snow down here. Some may not call it a ridge, but what ever you want to call it, it is blocking our lows from digging south most of the time..
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 7:07 pm

We really haven't had any strong blocking in place! If you look at the NAO it just went negative for the first time in awhile, but is on its way to net to pos.. There are so many factors that are in play it's hard to look at any one of them and say what would normally happen just has not happened... With that said I just don't understand how if there is a block in place how the storm still can cut so far north like they have? If the se ridge has that big of effect why would the little weak storm we had about 3 weeks ago just roll right under us and not pull north?

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-30, 11:34 pm

Not saying anything, but might just be in the right spot for this one....


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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by Toot on 2014-12-31, 12:59 am

This is gonna turn out crazy..NAO goes neg and we get a cutter!! Goes positive then we get a legit winter threat. This winter is full of surprises...but one thing is for sure. Its not to be predicted beyond a couple days..lol

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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-31, 2:01 am

This may be the winter that all forecasters may need to go back to school. Very hard to say much about the weather more than two or 3 days out. New Gfs is showing very cold air somewhere between the 6th and 8th time frame. But will it still be there in a day or two. I guess we will watch and wait. After all that all we can do. Like the other poster said we are not getting any Green land blocking to help out. And in the west when blocking set up it don't won't to stay put.
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Re: Winter Wx Discussion 2014/2015

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