White Christmas Chances higher than normal this year

by **Toot** 2014-12-20, 1:13 am

Dare I say it could be a white Christmas for alot KY and TN..of course the further north and elevated u are the better u will do. I know it doesnt look like much qpf/precip at the surface on models just yet but good fetch events are not picked up on global models like they are by mesoscale models and this is not their range just yet!

That is one heck of fetch from the Great lakes with alot of forcing. Alot of people are calling this flurries but that is probably "streamers" due to all the upper level energy. Not saying a significant snow but I can see how u could easily pick up and inch or so under a good streamer! The Mountain areas is a given in this setup. I wont post any images until we get closer and smaller features get picked up on

Here is a writeup I put together on facebook blog:

(((Large and powerful Christmas storm system threatens to bring snow to big chunk of eastern united states)))

A massive storm system will take place during the holiday but ALOT of details still remain unclear. First off..the track..size and intensity are not at all common. Wind and rain will affect most of the eastern united states but as the storm system starts to mature and grow in size.. it works a bunch of cold air into the system changing the rain over to snow around the Great Lakes..OH and TN valley regions! This is where the majority of the snow looks to fall..it doesnt look like much in the way of wintry weather will make it east of the Appalachian mountains with the exception of the interior northeast.

Strong winds are very likely to be widespread with this system due to very impressive pressure gradient in the upper eastern united states. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible in some locations.. especially the higher elevations! The weather starts to go downhill on Tuesday as the "Santa cyclone" begins to take shape! A weak area of low pressure moves up the East Coast Tuesday night.. then the ""Santa cyclone digs in starting in the Southeast where heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected! Even some severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night in the southeastern united states where a warm and unstable air mass will be in place.

Christmas eve and Christmas day the storm really gets to crankin and snow looks to spread down into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. While snow is likely to fly in the air over much of TN..KY..WV..IL and Ohio..how much snow and exact storm track remain very unclear at this point. Below is (NOT A FORECAST) just one models estimation of snow totals from what WXeastern has dubbed the "Santa Cyclone".
Bundle up.. cause this will mark the start of very big changes in the weather! Much colder and stormier condidtions are right on the heels of this system and the cold looks to sink its teeth in and stay for a while!

by **Neals** 2014-12-21, 7:30 am

Sounds good. I am rooting for a white Christmas.

by **Jscentraltn** 2014-12-21, 4:42 pm

The models! Ha! Anyways just looked at the 18z nam, I like what it is doing if it could wrap this thing up we could end up getting some snow. It is further east with the storm and colder. By late tonight or tomorrow at some point it will better to say! once the sytem can get sampled better it is just know within the range for the models to get a better handle... Very Happy

by **etnwx** 2014-12-21, 10:45 pm

Me and the wife are going to attempt to drive to Detroit on Christmas Eve. We plan on leaving around 6-7am, and should arrive 2-3pm. I'm not afraid of the snow, but are concerned about ice and blizzard conditions.

The last snowfall map showed Ohio getting 6+ inches, but I'm not sure how fast the 6 inches get dumped.

I know the forecast will change, but how is it looking for us as of now? Thanks.

by **Jscentraltn** 2014-12-21, 11:11 pm

It depends on what model you look at! I would say it will be fine, no worries for you guys for the time window you gave... Rainy.... The gfs for Christmas day has Michigan getting some snow, rain for Ohio ending as some snow.. The nam shows Michigan not really getting anything... But Ohio some snow... That is at this moment so just keeping checking because the models are struggling with the storm so it could Change... Blizzard!! Don't see it maybe once it hits Canada the gfs drops it down to 964 mb. You guys have a safe trip..... Merry Christmas!

by **etnwx** 2014-12-22, 11:15 pm

Yep, it looks like I'll be find for the trip. Just rain and probably some wind through Ohio, and Michigan. Might have some snow shows in Michigan, but nothing to worry about. Trip back home looks good too.

Word is, we might have some colder weather in the beginning of January, but at this point, I'll believe it when I see it. GFS being a real jerk right now.

White Christmas Chances higher than normal this year WEEK2-OUTLOOK-65

White Christmas Chances higher than normal this year WEEK2-OUTLOOK-65

White Christmas Chances higher than normal this year QlZ5QW0

by **Toot** 2014-12-23, 10:51 am

Surface low gonna be much weaker and further north than what models were suggesting. Rain may end with some light snow showers late Christmas eve into Christmas but doesnt look to be any accumulations aside from some light ones in the highest elevations here in good ole TN