WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 1:52 pm

This period looks like the best we have seen yet for accumulating snow so figured we might need a seperate thread. We will even have several teleconnections on our side and cold air looks to be readily available for any waves of low pressure that may ride up an arctic boundary!

This arctic boundary could possibly stall out right over the area somewhere and that could mean epic snow for whoever is just to the northwest of it with freezing rain and rain for whoever is just south of it. If it does indeed stall...MULTIPLE waves of low pressure (that models wouldnt even have picked up on just yet) could ride a STALLED arctic boundary but that part is just speculation right now.

Its hard to say how the arctic airmass positions itself cause guidance models are really having a rough time due to several different aspects. Right now there is two trackable systems on guidance models that are inside of 10 days

The GFS and its ensembles have a wave of low pressure tracking up the first post Christmas cold front this coming monday DEC 29th


The second threat is right on New years when the motherload of Arctic air is dropped into the eastern US..models havent came into anykind of agreement with the track of that system tho

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Toot on 2014-12-23, 2:11 pm

Low temps for Jan 2nd from the op GFS cold


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-23, 9:24 pm

Didn't see your post on the cold air coming down. I had posted something about the cold air coming down between now and New Years or day or two after. Not trying to copy anyone. Just now saw your post.
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Toot on 2014-12-24, 6:37 pm

The first system has trended northward on guidance models but the second system is still being advertised as a threat!

The Parallel GFS shows it all snow with the exception of the mountain areas where it is a cold rain..Lmao..this model will never make it!!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-24, 8:36 pm

I haven't looked at that model but maybe 1 time.... I with you on that toot! I know the cold is coming... Looking at the models and esembles. The cold air comes south but doesn't like pushing it to Far east.. I just don't want to end up on the icy side of things which is what I'm afraid is going to happen with that artic front stalling so close to us.. Have a merry Christmas guys!!!!

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by etnwx on 2014-12-25, 1:03 am

Made it to Detroit.  The drive was with on and off gain showers until Toledo,  OH. From Toledo all the way to Detroit was heavy rain. Supposed to be breezy tomorrow.

Anyways my wife and I wanted to wish everyone a...

santa rendeer santa MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! rendeer santa rendeer

_________________
My web site: http://www.etnwx.com
My Weather Underground data can be seen HERE.

avatar
etnwx
Storm Spotter

Posts : 313
Join date : 2012-10-25
Age : 48
Location : NW Knox County

View user profile http://www.etnwx.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Toot on 2014-12-25, 12:07 pm

Guidance models really struggling with how to handle the energy that comes over top the EPO ridge in the pacific. Looks like the energy will be onshore and in NOAA's radiosonde network sunday for much better sampling

Merry Christmas yall!!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-25, 12:53 pm

Are we getting a SE Ridge that is keeping the cold from pushing to far south into our area? Seems like it. Not look at the models today to see what going on. Computer don't want to open the page up for some reason. I will try again later. Merry Christmas All.
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Toot on 2014-12-25, 1:11 pm

There is some flat ridging down in the Caribbean but I dont think it will be much of a match for the vortex that sets up near Hudson bay.


Last edited by Toot on 2014-12-26, 9:49 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-25, 1:12 pm

We are under sw flow aloft! There is a se ridge but the air is not of artic origin. it is pacific, so the cold it not that great and won't last... That all is about to change!! Im getting excited.. Toot stated above, later in the weekend or early next week the models will have a better handle with that storm. The artic air will come, but depending on where that front stalls is going to be the problem because of the se ridge.. Because the warm air still can come up over that front with it too close.. Giving us instead of all snow a mixed bag. I just don't wont ice.. Anyways! If it wraps up and is a strong storm as I'm thinking there will be artic air to tap so no problems for snow! Very Happy

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by windstorm on 2014-12-25, 2:22 pm

JB post on FB.https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B5qY0C0CQAA4kxk.png I know it kind of like dreaming of a White Christmas. But anything is possible ... We can hope anyway. There really is a Santa isn't there Joe???
avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2014-12-28, 2:04 pm

Looking and the gem and euro 12z they are colder, and bring the ull right over Tennessee. On the other hand the gfs still likes the lakes! Interesting to watch and see who when's the battle.... Later 18z time Smile

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Accumulating snow possible (New Years timeframe)

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum