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Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

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Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-21, 8:51 am

Got good agreement on this now although the precip looks too far west (to Me) in regards to storm track. Anyways it looks like a decent chance statewide

Euro


GFS


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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Neals on 2015-01-21, 1:48 pm

Have the models changed or are we still getting some snow showing up on the models? I know they have been showing little for the valley and decent for the west and east rims of the Tennessee valley.

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-21, 1:59 pm

All are about the same, on all model runs. The precip is not as heavy as before, so amounts are showing less.... They Are not as strong with the upper level system coming out of the plains behind the low that goes up the east coast. Still a lot of time before the event starts,so still will be adjustments  Made the next 24hrs...

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by realdeal2414 on 2015-01-21, 8:37 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:All are about the same, on all model runs. The precip is not as heavy as before, so amounts are showing less.... They Are not as strong with the upper level system coming out of the plains behind the low that goes up the east coast. Still a lot of time before the event starts,so still will be adjustments  Made the next 24hrs...

Do you see anything developing for eastern tn for late sun into Monday and Tuesday?

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-21, 9:54 pm

Really haven't had time today to look at much, but from what I did look at it doesn't look like much for that period. The models have trended way north with that system... For fri into sat, the models are crazy they have started going back further south and east with the low.... You guys may get some decent snow from that.... I'm not sure were you live?

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by realdeal2414 on 2015-01-21, 10:20 pm

Live in kingsport, in the valley unfortunately. They are giving a mixed bag here.

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-21, 11:01 pm

Looking at the new 0z gfs it bombs out the storm at 980mb as it goes up the coast and is a waste for everyone even the ne.. I don't know if the models are struggling with feedback or if this will be the out come but it sucks!

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-21, 11:25 pm

There goes the 966mb bomb missing everyone! What is going on? What a diffrence 24 hrs makes!

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-22, 10:22 am

Its time to start using mesoscale models and the 4km nam lines up really good with my thoughts. .except I think there will be double digit totals in the highest elevations


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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-22, 11:32 am

Thanks toot! I've never looked at those.. Looks better than I was thinking... Maybe the storm will end up stronger and colder....

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-22, 4:29 pm

I think someone is going to end up with a few Inches inside the deform band! Question is where does it setup? I'll post some pics later.... What you thinking toot?

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-22, 5:05 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:I think someone is going to end up with a few Inches inside the deform band! Question is where does it setup? I'll post some pics later.... What you thinking toot?

I just got out of the hospital with pneumonia back to my lap top havent had much time to ananlyze much. You just cant do as much on a smart phone as u can a REAL computer..LOL I think the Plateau area could be the big winners but other areas may do well too. Its really a very unordinary Miller A as far as precip placement in respect to surface low track. I will be crunching the data from here on out tho

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by snowman72 on 2015-01-22, 5:18 pm

We might get a touch of winter this weekend, but what has my attention is next weekend. Maybe a super bowl storm

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-01-22, 6:09 pm

Thanks toot! I pray things are well and you get better soon... Its been a wild one, I'm with you on using smartphones! Thats what Ive been using, my I phone. just is not Same as my computer,but it is down....
Talk soon..

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Neals on 2015-01-22, 8:17 pm

Dang, hope you feeling better Toot. You are the Man when it comes to Tenn. winter weather.

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-01-22, 9:02 pm

Wow Toot! Yeah man, I hope you get better soon! As far as this system goes, the GFS as of 12z and 18z has been looking better than any other model with regards to the deformation or possible deform band. I guess we will have to wait and see. The regular NAM is not too keen on snowfall and likewise the Euro. Hi res NAM looks better than the NAM. Model chaos. This could be so much more if we just had the High pressure uggh!

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by etnwx on 2015-01-22, 9:49 pm

Get well Toot! I just came home Monday after nearly spending 2 weeks in the hospital because of my Dad. He had 2 valves replaced plus a triple bypass. Just being in a hospital for 6 or 7 hours wore me out as if I worked the whole shift. Must be the stress too.

Have you considered a 10" tablet? I can do a lot more on it than my Galaxy S5 phone. Samsung also makes a 12.2" version. You could add a USB mouse and a bluetooth keyboard if you need one. And if your flush with money, you'd like the Surface 3 I'm sure.

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-22, 10:28 pm

Thanks yall...the 0z 12kmNAM is very funky looking with the hole in 700mb RH and lack of precip in the deform band..im tossing it! Im looking at hi res models and nowcasting now. Very hard system to nail down the 4km nam still makes the most sense to me but may be a little over done but not likley. Def would help to have a big cold high to our north but ive seen big snows before without them. etnwx...tablets never really caught on with me..I like my trusty laptop for analyzying weather data. Waiting on 0z hi res nam now

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-22, 10:54 pm

While looking at mesoanalysis I ran across this from MRX..lol temps already lower than what they expected..this is prob gonna be all snow around 3500 and up

Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1005 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. LOWERED CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT ACCOUNTING FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. ADDED A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW TO THE SMOKIES
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT.

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-22, 11:07 pm

I always give MRX props when they nail stuff and they have a very hard job but for a little humor this guy posted this on my wx fb page..lol

Funny shat



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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-22, 11:13 pm

0z4km NAM holding strong and also now picking up on the double digit snows on the highest peaks

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-01-22, 11:16 pm

Lol Toot I saw it on your FB page haha too funny!

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by fire rescue87 on 2015-01-23, 12:22 am

That one gal got a tad butt hurt...
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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-23, 12:40 am

fire rescue87 wrote:That one gal got a tad butt hurt...

Yeah she wuz like bleh acting like I was predicting 5-6 inches of snow in morristown... then all of a sudden when I told her that she's not getting 5 inches of snow she was like  cry

lmao

I really do try to be nice but sometimes I just cant help myself..lol

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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

Post by windstorm on 2015-01-23, 8:28 am

Hope you feel better soon Toot. Take Care.
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Re: Jan 23-25 Winter storm (2015)

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