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Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

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Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Toot on 2015-01-31, 12:54 pm



For the first time since November (which was one of the coldest NOV's on record) in a big chunk of the E.US the AO (Arctic Oscillation) will go -2 or lower (which will provide the arctic airmass)! Mix that with the western ridge and a neutral to neg NAO with the still active subtropical jet stream and im all in for the first time!!

Significant winter storm to affect SE and Mid Atlantic late next week!! Alot of smaller scale details to work out but ALL the players are on the field!! This is the best oppurtunity the south has had for a big snow this Winter.

Even the AO/NAO is supportive of this...that means there will be a cold airmass to work with and the subtropical jet will make sure there is plenty of moisture to be shunted northward into an arctic airmass! ALL guidance models agree on the large scale synoptic features but each model differs to a degree.

Please dont ask about your specific area cause that wont be cleared up for a day or two! But make no mistake about it..this is the one folks...from Northern MS/AL/GA to the Carolinas into the Delmarva!!

My confidence level in a big SE to Mid-Atlantic snow storm hasnt been this high ALL winter!!







Last edited by Toot on 2015-02-05, 5:33 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-01-31, 11:40 pm

I'll give it one Woof for right now. I bark some more though if things get better. I like where TN is sitting on this one though. Man I'd love to see a storm get going with this track like the one getting going tonight. When it wraps up in New England in a few days, the gfs has this bad boy at 985mb!!! Dang!!! This system should help us with next weeks I hope. Although I don't buy south GA and Hilton head getting snow with this next one. I think it comes north and west. I really like it. It's the best look we've had all year. It would be a great look even in a great year like 2009-2010. It's got a lot going for it. Could it mess up, sure, but it's what we got to work with, so better enjoy it

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Toot on 2015-02-01, 7:08 am

Yep think that whats showing in SC/GA winds up in the mtns..lol


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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Neals on 2015-02-01, 11:11 am

Goodness, can we handle that much snow? If it moves northwest.

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-01, 11:44 am

Plum crazy!!!!! I hate to say it, but the gfs of lately even though it has showed every placment pos of these lows has done ok, within a day or so before it hits.. The euro has followed the middle road of the gfs and gem... The outcome...the gfs is right! So with the storm we have going now with RAIN Sad! The gfs 7 days ago showed this low placement in nw Georgia, well it will be in Indiana today... So I say if it holds to its trends.. I would say by mon - tue it will have us in the bullseye!!!!!

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-02, 7:05 am

Well it's more like a meow now than a Woof if you go by the models. Unfortunately guys, I just don't have a lot of faith in this system being "The One" or even the rest of the month pulling one out of the hat. We just have a terribly hostile pattern for southeast snow right now with little to no blocking and the favorable Pacific ridge that we have is offering no help as of late. I'm sure that we will eventually get another big dog snowstorm, but I don't think this one's gonna do it.

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-02, 10:00 am

well am heading out. Going to look for snow in my new car.
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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Toot on 2015-02-02, 10:06 am

It is not unheard of for me to just chunk all the models and go old school and thats exactly what im doing now. Although the models have backed off on the big amounts of snow im still all in on this one!! What they are showing at 500 to 850Mb doesnt add up to what theyre showing at the surface. This is a pretty good setup too.. just looking at high and low pressure placement alone. What looks like a cold front on models I believe will end up being the deformation band of the gulf low. There is a few ECM CMC AND GFS ensemble members also showing this very thing.

The latest NAM just trended that way too..just remember precip with gulf lows are almost always further north and west that what is progged by models. Having said that...ive been wrong alot this winter too... so my confidence level has been turned down a notch or two by recent model runs but I think u will see the models come back around today and tomorrow with this system. Just too many good things going on here for just a frontal passage!! I still like what im seeing especially for the TN Valley and Southern Appalachian regions. Below is the latest NAM simulated radar reflectivity and temperatures about 5000 feet up in the air where it matters.

Im still giving this one two big woofs..lol



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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-02, 10:37 am

So if you have a low setting in the GOM where would it be setting at in the picture.
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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Toot on 2015-02-02, 10:42 am

windstorm wrote:So if you have a low setting in the GOM where would it be setting at in the picture.
At that that particular hour the surface low center is over open water about 100 miles SW of Mobile, AL

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-02, 10:49 am

That would be a good set up if it tends to move NE a little. Not to far NE. Thanks Toot.
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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-02, 11:06 am

Seems like moisture made it a little further north into AL on the 12z but the northern stream dampened out more than ever on it's approach, so the net result was the same. Maybe the Canadian and euro will give us some more hope here in a little bit.

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-02, 3:11 pm

Looks like the low in the GOM for this up coming Thursday Friday time frame may get push father east of us with some energy coming from the N or NW. What do u think.??
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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-02, 3:52 pm

I have been wrong all winter it seems, with what I thought would happen.... But it is all about timing! The euro makes the love connection to far ne of us.... I don't think what the gfs has is right by it out to sea and not meeting up... Tonight's runs and tomorrow will give us a better idea! I don't see how the models are sending it over  central Florida with the northern energy still so far north, therefore the gl will have room for a more nw track... Omo!!! Smile

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-02, 3:56 pm

Toot posted about the nam, It is closer to what I think will happen, I still would like to see it further nw of what it even shows, but it has been consistent....

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-02, 4:05 pm

As of writing these post, I went looked and the 18z nam and compared it too the 12z, the trend with it continues to be more bullish with the moisture from the gulf it has it even further north on the new run... Let the trend continue! But it is the nam after all... 18z gfs out soon... For now like  the nam, it is close too making the great connection. Very Happy

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-02, 10:57 pm

Well!!!  I'm checking out on this one..... The 0z nam went south, the 0z gfs stayed south and really is not all that impressive anymore even with the post frontal snow... Maybe before winters over Smile .........

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-02, 11:14 pm

This winter really blows! Worst winter I can remember. The deck is evidently stacked against us. Everything that can possibly go wrong this year in regards to snow seems to be going wrong. I give up. I'm an optimistic person, but I just don't have enough gas in the tank to keep staying up late every night studying this stuff for naught. I hope before winter ends in March or early April, I can sing another tune, but I'm out for awhile. Been fun guys

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Toot on 2015-02-03, 9:40 am

Lol...dang guys!!!! Ill reel this one in for yunz..even if its just a couple inches. If not we got the whole month and march. Dont jump yet..haha

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-03, 10:15 am

Haha I knew you'd pull through for us Toot! I have to admit I was very frustrated last night after watching the model runs. I just don't get how it's possible that there is not some interaction between the two streams. I mean, the are lined up right on top of each other. I remember an event last year a lot like this one. There was a piece of energy in the Arizona area that was stronger than modeled and it wasn't till the event was on us that the RAP model first caught on, then some of the other ones. We got about 4 inches or so out of that one. I know this one is different somewhat bc it's a gulf low, but surely there will be some interaction?? Maybe?? Possibly?? If not, we can always dream at the setup on the LR GFS it's really good, as it has been this year, at reeling me in. Haha, at least we can see what they would look like on a model, even if they don't verify.

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Toot on 2015-02-03, 10:56 am

Jed33 wrote:Haha I knew you'd pull through for us Toot! I have to admit I was very frustrated last night after watching the model runs. I just don't get how it's possible that there is not some interaction between the two streams. I mean, the are lined up right on top of each other. I remember an event last year a lot like this one. There was a piece of energy in the Arizona area that was stronger than modeled and it wasn't till the event was on us that the RAP model first caught on, then some of the other ones. We got about 4 inches or so out of that one. I know this one is different somewhat bc it's a gulf low, but surely there will be some interaction?? Maybe?? Possibly?? If not, we can always dream at the setup on the LR GFS it's really good, as it has been this year, at reeling me in. Haha, at least we can see what they would look like on a model, even if they don't verify.

Yep remember it very well and it was a gulf low too..the northern piece of energy pulled the southern piece of energy up just in time the precip started meeting together out in Arkansas I think. It still wasnt quick enough interaction for places west of the plateau and the farther east u were the better u did..I was in blount county at the time..got about 7 inches. I with u..I just dont see how they wont interact..im sure they will but we need them to interact out in west TN at least and I think they will. Im completely by myself now forecasting this in the face of every model out there that says they wont..lol but if I remember correctly I was the only hold out on the one ur talking about too..haha

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-03, 11:15 am

I with ya!!! It's just frustrating as all get out...... Stay up later, get up early looking, getting slapped in the face by these hog wash models this year!!!! Just knowing what they show is a perfect setup for us to get decent snow, then ha! Nothing... I still think there is more moisture involved as well from the gulf with this. We still have over 24hrs before its here anyways... When you love weather it just makes for long days at work... Later guys....

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-03, 12:40 pm

Yep, the only other one I saw forecasting a snowstorm at that time last year was Wxsouth. You and he I believe were it. Anyway, we know how that one turned out. NWS was playing major league catch up on that one.

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-03, 8:46 pm

How is it looking tonight with the models?

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-03, 9:29 pm

Underdawg45!!!!! Still the same no connection.... There will still be snow. Post frontal, a few hours worth! The models have backed off a little with amounts, I would say 1-2 inches pos if it is a little stronger than what is shown..... It will be very windy and get cold fast as soon as the front comes though... With temps in the upper 40s low 50s, look for a thin layer of glaze to form first from road temps to warm.... But the snow will blow around a lot (powder).......

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Re: Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

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