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Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-14, 12:46 pm

Anyone got some of the 12z model graphics? Like euro or ukmet

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by realdeal2414 on 2015-02-14, 12:50 pm

Seen were weatherbob posted new thread for next weekend, a big one. So is this one this upcoming week fading on us?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 12:54 pm

I don't know how much my input is going to me as I am new to the forums. All I can say is that I've lived in Tennessee for half my life and in Pennsylvania for half my life. I have been intrigued with weather since I was seven years old and saw my first tornado. Granted I do not have any type of meteorology degree but I feel the set up that I am seeing and the model guidance that I am seeing is suggestive of a significant snowfall in bed for the state of Tennessee. In my experience local meteorologist have a tendency to start their snowfall predictions low and gradually increase them as the event years. I think it's a pretty safe bet that most of Tennessee will see anywhere between four and 6 inches of snow. However I feel those amounts could be on the low side and we could see is much is eight or 9 inches in the area as well. I look forward to the new guidance when it comes out because I just have a feeling that our local meteorologist are missing this on the low side.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-14, 1:04 pm

realdeal2414 wrote:Seen were weatherbob posted new thread for next weekend, a big one.  So is this one this upcoming week fading on us?

I posted that because the Eurowx model was showing big snowfall totals for tn that weekend, just wonder if the model is off, but the GFS shows a smaller piece of energy coming down not as strong as that euro has it. So just wanting to get people's input on it and see what they think

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roof

Post by realdeal2414 on 2015-02-14, 1:09 pm

weatherbob wrote:
realdeal2414 wrote:Seen were weatherbob posted new thread for next weekend, a big one.  So is this one this upcoming week fading on us?

I posted that because the Eurowx model was showing big snowfall totals for tn that weekend, just wonder if the model is off, but the GFS shows a smaller piece of energy coming down not as strong as that euro has it. So just wanting to get people's input on it and see what they think

thanks

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-14, 1:12 pm

TWC has Chattanooga forecast for 3 - 5 inches of snow for Monday. Good part of Tenn is under a winter storm watch as of right now
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 1:47 pm

James Spann from the Alabama weather blog has just posted that the GFS has shifted the icing more to the north but still only in the state of Alabama. Still looks like an all snow event for Tennessee.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-14, 2:08 pm

Pman1618 wrote:Anyone got some of the 12z model graphics? Like euro or ukmet

Here are both and they are looking pretty nice.
Euro:

Euro Snowfall:


UKMET:


Enjoy....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by realdeal2414 on 2015-02-14, 2:14 pm

bigbris wrote:
Pman1618 wrote:Anyone got some of the 12z model graphics? Like euro or ukmet

Here are both and they are looking pretty nice.
Euro:

Euro Snowfall:


UKMET:


Enjoy....

thanks

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-14, 2:27 pm

Thanks!! Wow the euro sure is exciting to think about...7 widespread across TN would be epic, especially for my area which has become known as the Snow Dome aka Nashville

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-14, 2:52 pm

Nice! Euro and ukie been pretty consistent

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-14, 3:06 pm

New Nam isnt looking to bad either it has a lighter event sun night through Monday morning and then a stronger solution on the second wave. Im ready for us to get into the 24 hour range. Then we will have a much better handle on the strength and location of the systems. But as of now by far our best chance of the season for some healthy snow accumulations. It blows my mind NOAA is so relaxed on this. They are just as tired of the waffles in the models as we are.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-14, 3:15 pm

Noaa should update soon.
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-14, 3:51 pm

NWS has issued a winter storm watch starting Sunday Night. Ratio will be along a line in there thinking of 13:1 or 14:1 .
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 3:52 pm

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
…Winter Storm Watch for Sunday night through Monday night for 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation across much of much of Middle Tennessee, including Nashville and Lawrenceburg. More snow is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night.
That's from James Spann

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-14, 3:53 pm

Mrx update is already out. Surprised me that they went ahead with a winter storm watch for the entire area. Was another great AFD. Forecasting 3-6 now maybe more depending on mesoscale banding and what may happen with the 2nd wave. The NAM is the only one with the 2nd wave now I guess

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 3:54 pm

Based on precipitation ratios how do we not end up with 6-7 inches??? Just a thought

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 5:33 pm

The weather Channel has now updated there snow fall totals to be 5 to 8 inches

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-14, 6:47 pm

Toot what's your forecast man?


Last edited by Jed33 on 2015-02-14, 6:48 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Wrong word)

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-14, 6:57 pm

Jed33 wrote:Toot what's your forecast man?

Lol...im pulling my hair out but im working on it!!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 7:00 pm

My official forecast....6-10 statewide

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-14, 7:03 pm

Yea Toot we all love your call maps and they are usually accurate beer

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-14, 7:18 pm

Toot wrote:
Jed33 wrote:Toot what's your forecast man?

Lol...im pulling my hair out but im working on it!!

For real, the whole state. uh oh

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-14, 7:26 pm

It's the second wave that's the troublemaker isn't it lol.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-14, 7:58 pm

Im not even gonna turn this loose on my fb site yet...just here and im also not going to go into much discussion about it..lol im just too tired!!


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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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