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Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-14, 8:11 pm

baby

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-14, 8:13 pm

Great map Toot! Looks reasonable based on today's trends. This one has zapped me too

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-14, 8:20 pm

Toot wrote:Im not even gonna turn this loose on my fb site yet...just here and im also not going to go into much discussion about it..lol im just too tired!!



Real nice map and i think the totals are great too, that is what a lot of models are throwing out.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 8:55 pm

Well looks like the image Toot put out there backs my forecast pretty good

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-14, 10:09 pm

That was a bad nam run, looks like mostly sleet. I hope we can throw that run out

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-14, 10:46 pm

snowman72 wrote:That was a bad nam run, looks like mostly sleet. I hope we can throw that run out

Yea I don't really see that verifying based on all the other available data. By the way guys I have been mostly just a reader for several years here now. Decided I would start chipping in a little bit. All self-taught but I am starting to get a handle on it. Have learned a lot from toot over the last few years. Blah blah blah lol here is the snowfall from the latest nam:

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by snowman72 on 2015-02-14, 10:58 pm

I think unless the euro helps out we will lose out on our snowstorm, way too much warm air coming in. I hope I am wrong but this easy tn and if something will go wrong it will here when it comes to winter weather. Just my opinion I hope to eat crow tommorow.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-14, 11:01 pm

Guys take into account that the stronger the storm is the more warm air aloft will be drawn up, that is just the case from the 0z nam and 0z gfs do show this....  which means if you are south of I40 you will have a mixed bag so accums will not be as high, the further south from that is going to be freezing rain.. Very complex storm!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-14, 11:04 pm

It will be a winter strom!!!!! You will not have any rain in tn during this event, now frz rain on the other hand is a diffrent story... The strom could get very ugly fast....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-14, 11:12 pm

I think the model will kick back to snow ideal, like he said i think the nam had a bad run, we will see what the GFS and Euro say, the Euro is the best model to go with anyway,it usually checks out!!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-14, 11:19 pm

The gfs is warmer as well!!! This doesn't mean no storm , it just means you may not get what you want... I just hope the trend north doesn't continue..

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-14, 11:28 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:The gfs is warmer as well!!! This doesn't mean no storm , it just means you may not get what you want... I just hope the trend north doesn't continue..
Yea this is starting look like a potential ice storm for Tennessee especially mid-low part of the state. Add the GFS to the RGEM,NAM, and RPM. Warmer, slower, stronger solution from all. Now lets see what happens with the Euro...

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2015-02-14, 11:51 pm

Ugly trends this close to a storm. Looks like the temps that were progged to be around freezing on Monday from Huntsville, Al up my way to Chattanooga may actually hit low 40's if the WAA is a strong as I read.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 12:06 am

The 0z Canadian is the same as the 0z nam, 0z gfs... It has a stronger storm as well and the warm nose coming into southern tn..... I don't think it will be as warm as models have it prog, but it will cut down the accum due to more sleet/frz rain south of I40... Euro coming soon, but if you look at the 12z euro it was further north anyways... Off to bed I'm sure no sleep for me the next 2 days Smile

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 8:55 am

Well the trend continues stronger and more north! Just hope it holds were its at right now, any more north it's just going to be a mixed bag of slop.... I was looking at the wc they were showing from about Nashville north and east 12 to 18 inches of snow Very Happy

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 9:03 am

Personally I think the cold air is more entrenched then the models are showing ( even with the northward shift and increased strength) so I believe it will still be an all snow event with more accumulation then they are thinking

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 9:11 am

It's the waa that will cut the snow totals down, due to more mixing... The surface will remain below freezing but aloft is were the warm air try's to come in.... Either way it goes it is going to be a good storm for us... One that I haven't seen in a while....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 9:14 am

Correct I understand the mechanics of it I am just saying I don't think the warm air will have an easy time of it

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 9:24 am

The 12z nam coming in and has even has higher precip output Smile but still has warmnose all the way to Nashville.... Due to that the models will push the higher snow totals north, but maybe the precip will be heavy enough to keep the whole col  below freezing... Very complex.....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 9:35 am

That's the direction I was going with it. I believe it will be heavy enough

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 9:37 am

Here is the 12z nam accums.....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 9:41 am

If I am a betting man those totals increase and shift south as well

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by juju on 2015-02-15, 10:31 am

Whoo hoooo! Something is going to happen. I don't know much about all those fancy weathet maps but my storm glass is going crazy! rock on

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-15, 10:48 am

My guess on this system is to look at your weather
Rock outside your window . If it's covered with
White stuff it's snowing if it has a shadow it's
Sunny ! If it's rolling around it's windy ! If it's
Wet it's raining ! If it's shining it's icy !! Lol
wash

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 10:58 am

Here is the 12z GFS.... As you can see the totals in se tn are less, due to the waa. Some areas down south may go to a cold rain..... So looking at the weather rock may work best Smile lol. 

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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