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Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 11:40 am

12z Canadian is coming in, it as well has heavy precip and stronger, therefore its looking like I40 north with all 12z model runs is the zone for the heavier snowfall.... All are showing close to foot of snow... South of there it's a mixed bag, therefore less snow... Waiting on the euro now!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-15, 11:48 am

Jscentraltn wrote:12z Canadian is coming in, it as well has heavy precip and stronger, therefore its looking like I40 north with all 12z model runs is the zone for the heavier snowfall.... All are showing close to foot of snow... South of there it's a mixed bag, therefore less snow... Waiting on the euro now!

The Euro has been up to bat for us in this one so far. It will be interesting to see considering what all the others have done. Regardless this will be an IMPACTFUL storm for the area. Trying not to get so caught up in all the numbers. How many times have we seen models waffle before? Also everything will be much clearer of course within 6 hours of onset. I am even gonna try a little now-casting with this one

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-15, 12:07 pm

For the LPS to be so far north the WAA is pretty weak and should be relatively easy to overcome with good dynamics but the models have spoken once again..lol I agree..looking like a 40 and north special!!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 12:13 pm

Yeah!!!! Could be one of the biggest snow events that I have seen for my area.... I can see 6 to 10, but I'm afraid that some sleet may hold that down from what is poss... If the dynamics are strong enough!!!! Boy we will be shut down around here for about a week..... Very Happy

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 12:26 pm

I am about 15 miles from I 40. I live in McMinnville so I am feeling like this will be a major event for my area. I still strongly feel like the WAA will be very weak and we will get all snow in my area. I feel like the majority of the models are under estimating the storm.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-15, 1:17 pm

Pamphobeteus wrote:I am about 15 miles from I 40. I live in McMinnville so I am feeling like this will be a major event for my area. I still strongly feel like the WAA will be very weak and we will get all snow in my area. I feel like the majority of the models are under estimating the storm.

Why do you feel that way? And what aspect of the storm are the models underestimating?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 1:25 pm

Other than raw data just instinct from all the winter storms I went through in PA. I feel the storms dynamics will play a big part and to be perfectly honest with you I have never gotten ice when preparation temps were 22 degrees. Granted I am not saying that ice can't happen with that situation it just has the smell of snow. I know that may not make sense but my raw instinct is telling me that the models are missing how strong that cold air is and the overall outcome that will have on the type of precipitation.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 1:42 pm

Welcome to tn my friend.... We have had numerous ice storms down here... Last jan when the Artic front went though, it was about 19 or 20 out and we ended up with all frz rain, did without power for a day! So yes in tn it can be 22 and all frz rain.... The euro is showing the same thing as all other models! If you have not experienced an ice storm you may won't to prepare now.... Not fun without power for a couple days, back in 93-94 I lost power for 2 weeks... I can't say I know the outcome of this storm, but I do know the models are showing ice for you guys down there... If the trend continue not surprised to see a ice storm warning somewhere down that way....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Math/Met on 2015-02-15, 1:45 pm

There is actually a decent improvement for East Tennessee on the 850mb charts on the 12z EURO vs the 00z EURO. Hopefully that will continue and decrease the WAA into the region.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 1:46 pm

Yeah I moved during the march 93 superstorm so I have experienced ice before it's no joke. Worse than 1ft of snow in my opinion. Don't think the verdict will be in until this evenings run

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-15, 2:33 pm

Hey guys, I live in Lebanon, TN and was wondering about how much snow is possible for my area?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 2:37 pm

Depends on the ultimate track and dynamics. You could end up with a foot or end up with a couple inches and ice

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-15, 2:41 pm

What did the 12z euro show?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-15, 2:56 pm

Pman1618 wrote:What did the 12z euro show?
Snowfall map for latest Euro

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 2:58 pm

Here is the euro......

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-15, 3:01 pm

Dang, this storm is gonna give me a heart attack! I'm gonna either get 10 inches or around 3 with lots of ice

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-15, 3:16 pm

Hey guys any chance of thunder snow with this system ?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-15, 3:21 pm

Well, by tonight we should be able to lock this system down based on track and amounts hopefully. The 18z model runs should seal the deal.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-15, 3:31 pm

Toot, that euro map don't look as great for our backyard as far as being epic? Do you have any thoughts about our county?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jed33 on 2015-02-15, 4:15 pm

There is always the possibility of thundersnow in some intense banding within the storm. 18z NAM was an improvement bc the low was further south and hence cooler (very slightly, lol) but hey take what we can get huh. Is it a trend this afternoon? Man, I hope so, but it's going to come down to the track of the low and how much WAA comes up. Tri is in the best spot actually.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 4:51 pm

The weather Channel has now changed the forecast to be a mix changing to all rain in my area. So they must be expecting most if not all the accumulating snow in Kentucky at this point. I have to say I disagree with this forecast entirely.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-15, 4:56 pm

Forecast in my area has changed too ! To only 1 - 2" snow with 1/2 " ice . Any ideals guys why nws came out with this new update ? Thoughts ??

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 5:14 pm

NOAA forecast for my area is.. Tonight snow and sleet total accums 1-3.... Tomorrow snow and sleet total accums 7-11.... That would give me total 8-14 for the event.... Wow! Said snow rates early tomorrow could reach 1-2 per hr... We will see how the trend goes.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 5:22 pm

Etnvolman.... It looks like that warmnose is more down toward you. The liquid output for this storm looks to be around an inch or a little more... So that forecast would veify if the models don't change.. More ice than snow it looks like right now.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-15, 5:22 pm

Jscentraltn How much further north are you?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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