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Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 11:10 pm

Still some ice at the onset but from I40 north it still has great snow amounts, but as you can see south mixed bag...

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-15, 11:46 pm

Dang, Mrx saying .3-.4 ice for my area next 24 hours.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-15, 11:47 pm

Here is the canidian! 0z


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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pman1618 on 2015-02-15, 11:51 pm

YES! Canadian pushed it further south and now north middle Tn is back in some major business...

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Neals on 2015-02-15, 11:56 pm

Is that even possible this late?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by fire rescue87 on 2015-02-16, 12:04 am

Sounds like it's time to get away from models and watch what the storm is doing! I imagine most of us will be busy this week!
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 12:05 am

I don't know!!!!! My eyes are already fuzzy and it hasn't started yet..... Lol Very Happy

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 7:14 am

All out sleet!!!! I wish it would hurry up and Change to snow.... Locals still calling for 4-8 for my area... Update later.....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-16, 7:32 am

Freezing rain in McMinnville @ 26 degrees. Temps actually went down 2 degreea

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 7:39 am

Yeah!!! I'm at 20 and heavy sleet had some frz rain mixed in earlier... Going to be a long day... There is  not a warm nose issue yet for me, it's just the col hasn't saturated all the way yet...

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-16, 7:54 am

One thing i said last week. It looked more and more like a cold Rain. And that's what we are going to get. Major Mess up By NWS. Hope someone on here get's a great snow. Good day, be safe and happy snowing.
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 8:26 am

Some reports about 30 miles to my north already have about 5inches of snow... Still heavy sleet for me.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Greyhound on 2015-02-16, 8:29 am

Windstorm, as much as you post on here and follow the models, you know this wasn't NWS fault. All model consensus had us clearly in bullseye for snow. And the way the models performed this year, nobody saw the last minute shift because ALL models looked golden for us. I'm all for calling out MRX for being conservative, and glossing over what we consider to be important issues, but this wasn't their fault. Regardless, whatever we do get, is what we are gonna get and we can't change anything about it. Just be safe, and we will live for another day and another storm

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-16, 8:31 am

I'm not a weather guy but I don't understand how it can be so cold and it rain/sleet.. 23 and light rain here.. Crazy

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 8:46 am

It is frz rain.... It is rain, but below freezing it is coating everything it has to do with the layers. at the surface it can be 10 degrees but as you go up 3 or 4 thousand feet it can be above freezing, therefore sleet/snow mix, if it is all above freezing but the surface frz rain....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 8:50 am

I have now a sleet/snow mix..... As the col continues to to saturate I look for me to go over more to snow soon....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-16, 9:17 am

underdawg45 wrote:I'm not a weather guy but I don't understand how it can be so cold and it rain/sleet.. 23 and light rain here.. Crazy






Im still waiting on this slopfest to get here..lol...it could be worse could be up in the mountains where a plain rain will fall for a little while today!!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by fire rescue87 on 2015-02-16, 9:47 am

About 1/4" to 1/3" of ice on the truck. Roads are sleet and ice.
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by windstorm on 2015-02-16, 9:49 am

Greyhound wrote:Windstorm, as much as you post on here and follow the models, you know this wasn't NWS fault. All model consensus had us clearly in bullseye for snow. And the way the models performed this year, nobody saw the last minute shift because ALL models looked golden for us. I'm all for calling out MRX for being conservative, and glossing over what we consider to be important issues, but this wasn't their fault. Regardless, whatever we do get, is what we are gonna get and we can't change anything about it. Just be safe, and we will live for another day and another storm..
Vey well put  Greyhound.  And yes it not the end of the world and we will get a big snow some time. Next major thing is Very cold air coming this week. Thanks for you input. Have a great day.
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-16, 10:36 am

Going to take a trip!!!! Hard to believe just 10miles up the road there is 4inches of snow on the ground.. I'm only getting frz rain...

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-16, 10:37 am



Code:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0909 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

  AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF TN

  CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

  VALID 161509Z - 162015Z

  SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING
  SUBSTANTIAL ICING ACROSS MUCH OF TN INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
  PRECIPITATION SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.

  DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SLEET AND
  FREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A CONTINUOUS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
  EXTENDING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO MIDDLE TN. WITH NQA AND OHX
  VWPS DEPICTING NOTABLE VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT IN THE
  LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WAA IS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. RELATED STRONG
  ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE IN PROXIMITY TO A LLJ THAT WILL
  GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
  ASCENT/PRECIPITATION SPREADING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS.

  THE 12Z BNA RAOB SAMPLES AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE H85
  SURMOUNTING DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIR...SUPPORTING SLEET.
  HOWEVER...ELEVATED WAA-ENHANCED WARMING WILL ALSO HAVE A PROPENSITY
  TO MELT DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
  ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOCAL-AREA/UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
  FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. SLEET
  ACCUMULATION RATES MAY REACH NEAR A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR.
  SUBSTANTIAL ICING WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM THESE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
  RATES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

  SHORT-RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE NEAR-SFC WARMING
  SUPPORTING A TRANSITION TO PURE LIQUID RAIN ACROSS SRN PARTS OF
  MIDDLE AND SERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
  VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE -- AS REPRESENTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS FROM
  THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS -- AND RELATED WET-BULB COOLING
  MAY OFFSET SFC-LOW PRECEDING WAA AND VERY MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. AS
  SUCH...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FROZEN PRECIPITATION MAY PREDOMINATE
  REGION-WIDE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM
  WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS
  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EWD.

  ..COHEN.. 02/16/2015


  ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2015-02-16, 11:46 am

We have a beautiful Winter storm on our hands at my house. 33* and moderate rain for the last hour. bird bird bird

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-16, 12:30 pm

Got sleet/snow here... 23 degrees...everything strting to glaze over quickly

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-16, 12:33 pm

Toot what's your accumulation thoughts for Newport /Dandridge line. Was snowing now ice here

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Post by Toot on 2015-02-16, 12:38 pm

underdawg45 wrote:Toot what's your accumulation thoughts for Newport /Dandridge line. Was snowing now ice here
Id say two or three inches of sleet/snow

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

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