Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th

Toot always throws out reaLy good maps of his prediction. They have great detail and he usually on top of the final tallies.

Wpc has just about the whole mid state under a mdt risk of 4 inches or more of snow...... I see the gfs is trending back further north with the tue - wed storm as well!! By the 12z runs tomorrow we will know what will happen .....

I should have waited to post the above statement, just looked at the 0z nam it went with the gfs for sun night mon morning.. Nobody's getting 4inches of anything!!!!  got a love it..

Jscentraltn wrote:I should have waited to post the above statement, just looked at the 0z nam it went with the gfs for sun night mon morning.. Nobody's getting 4inches of anything!!!!  got a love it..

Lol...Id say the 18z GFS gave about 70 percent of the state 4 or more inches of snow

I'm hoping the second wave is much stronger.

Almost choked upon seeing the 0z GFS WOW! Woof woof woof again!

Let's hope this is about as strong as she gets until she gets to our east. 1007mb in SC AL 1003WC GA 999mb near sc/bc coast that would bury the state! Talking places over a foot! Just WOW! Don't want to see it get much stronger though or we will be going over to rain and a switchback to snow once the low pulls by

I'm going to need some serious medicine after watching these models the last few days. Up down up down and now up

Yeah makes you wish you'd never found these sites doesn't it. Now you're hooked lol. Jk sort of.

When will we have a better lock on what it's going to do?

Haha when it's actually snowing. Nah, I had to throw that in. We will know more as time goes along GGEM looks good too. Just gotta see. Snowstorms are fun but tiring lol.

GFS

GEFS members

The 00z Euro still shows a very nice hit for most of Tennessee associated with the initial wave. Eurowx text output shows 9 inches for KTYS and 6.5 for KTRI. This is with ratios of around 14:1.

6z GfS moved toward the idea of more moisture with the first wave. It shifted southeast slightly with the low. This is fine. Did not want to see a northward shift. Also low is slightly weaker. Fine also. We don't want it too amped up in order to avoid the warm air advection that would bring. So Pretty good trends overnight. The precip shield with gulf lows is bigger than modeled, so the fact that it went back south slightly is ok in my book

Winter storm watches going up everywhere out west of here!!

This is going to be a fun week of weather coming up, not only is it going to snow but also it will be extremely cold. What does fall this week might stick around for awhile.

I'm sure they will something posted for us by 6pm.

Maybe, but doubtful. MRX criteria for winter storms is heavier than the rest of TN all of Al, and MS. Going with the 1-3 they have, assuming it holds, they would not issue a watch. They would wait till tomorrow sometime to issue an advisory. Of course, if data continues to suggest more than 1-3, they might upgrade to a watch, but prob not this afternoon.

Yeah..they will be the last ones around here to issue anything. Not sure where in the world they are getting the 1-3 tho..lol

Anyone have the 00z euro ?

One of our weatherman yesterday said he was thinking 2 to 4 if he had to call it yesterday. Is the energy coming from the north and a low out of the gulf going to phrase ?  If so this has the looks of a more heavier snowfall than what most weathermen, are calling for. Going to look at models here in a bit... We will see.. Other two weathermen are going 1 - 3.

Windstorm, not going to say a name but a  local weekend met this morning said limited moisture for Monday with little no accumulation. Rain moving in Tuesday with highs in low 40's, possibly ending as a few flurries Tuesday night.  I hope his "in-house+ model that he is using is bunk. Time will tell.

On a side note, heading out in a few minutes to Gatlinburg for some brews and food. Might see a light dusting there later today according to MRX.

Well Euro model continues to see high snowfall totals and if you look at WPC they now have a slight chance of 8+ inches in middle and east tn and a 1% chance of 12+ inches, so they are seeing something that has them issuing that out!!

Here's the graphic i was talking about [/img]