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Winter Storm Threat 20-22

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Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-14, 11:15 am

The new euro shows a another storm bigger storm for 20-22 this weekend, it shows more moisture and the cold temps with, if you have it look at eurowx website for this weekend storm and let me know what you think?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by bigbris on 2015-02-14, 2:14 pm

Confidence is not super high at the moment, but check out this brutal cold that is coming ...


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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-14, 6:22 pm

Rain looking more likely with this system

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by etnvolman on 2015-02-14, 10:27 pm

Yep all rain

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-17, 10:03 am

I'm sure you guys are just as tired as I am, but the next thing is on the table..... It's still early, just looking without going into much detail. Could turn out to be a ice storm at the onset of this storm. With all the cold and still some sleet and snow on the ground, temps will be colder than modeled so this system could get nasty! It's showing a lot of precip... I will start digging deeper tonight or tomorrow.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-17, 11:18 am

All rain in my opinion

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-17, 12:06 pm

That could be a good guess! But it's still too early, it's going to get very cold tomorrow night and thur night so any overunning that comes in early fri morning and though fri night will prob be frz rain....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-17, 12:51 pm

Models and feedback problems! Once the can sample the late week and weekend system and the true cold air in place, I don't think we will see the true outcome... Just over the border close to me last night they dropped down to 10 below... If we can get a couple inches of snow tonight, it's going to be brutal wed night and thur night, well below zero! The cold holds.....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-17, 5:55 pm

Too much warm air.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-17, 5:56 pm

Plus the track of the low looks much further north than what we just experienced

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-17, 6:50 pm

That just could be the case! But from what I have looked at there is still a big spread in the out come, nothing set... Here is one of the essembles out of 50, there are many of them close to this one some are not, but the mean and control both are close....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Toot on 2015-02-17, 8:08 pm

I like snow to rain scenario with this one

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-17, 10:03 pm

I am in agreement with Toot. May start out as frozen precip but will go over to rain quickly

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-17, 10:06 pm

Nam looks decent for fri though sat morning, around 81 hrs it looks like the warm air try's to win out in my area... Not so sure about it.... Not at the surface anyways.... You guys up east through 84 the cold stayed locked.... It looked a little faster with the start of the system as well, we will see!


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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-18, 11:18 am

With the low position much farther north than the last system wouldn't the WAA be even stronger?

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-19, 9:48 am

The nam, it continues colder with the last 2 runs! At 0z it was surging the warm air all the way up to southern Ind and oh... 12z says don't think so.... Starting to worry about the frz rain, before it goes over to a cold rain....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-19, 10:58 am

I don't see why this won't be quickly changing to rain. Looks to be an all rain event by Saturday morning

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-19, 11:18 am

I'm not concerned about it going to rain, it is going to do that I'm talking about a 6 to 8 hr window of sleet and ice maybe some snow..... If that whole time period is frz rain, you will have problems! Afterall the low tonight is 5 and precip moves in early tomorrow, it will not be plain rain.. 32 is freezing!!!!!

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-19, 11:38 am

Correct I am aware that it has to warm quickly but are you aware the models are printing a high of 63 tomorrow in Birmingham AL? All that warmth will be moving into our state quickly. It should change over rather quickly

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-19, 11:41 am

Models don't show precipitation moving in until after noon time. We will have a 6-7 hour widow of frozen precip but not all freezing rain

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-02-19, 11:45 am

Not before someone ends up with damaging ice!!!! There will be periods if not constant frz rain heavy at times so what ever falls will freeze quickly..... I'm with you on warm air coming, but not before the damage is done.....

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-19, 11:51 am

From everything I have seen on the model runs most of the damaging freezing rain will be near the mountains. Even here in McMinnville it doesn't look that bad. From what I saw it is supposed to be a gradual change from snow to sleet to freezing rain.

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-19, 12:24 pm

Where is the best place to look at models? I'm wondering about DandridgeTN

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-19, 12:41 pm

If that's up in eastern TN you may have issues

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

Post by underdawg45 on 2015-02-19, 12:44 pm

Ya it is. 40/81 split is my location

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Re: Winter Storm Threat 20-22

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