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MRX Discussion

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MRX Discussion

Post by weatherbob on 2015-02-14, 3:50 pm

Check out the MRX discussion below
Code:
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH A
SURGE OF BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND IT.  SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ENERGY
IN THE LOW LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME
SQUALL LIKE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
LOW VIS MAINLY NORTH. THIS ENHANCED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF...BUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
SW VA...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SW VA. WILL
KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS IS.  THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW.  SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF COLD...SUBFREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM A 700 MB
JET WILL HELP TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES SHOW THIS SITUATION...THE NAM BEING SLIGHTLY DRIER ON
THE INITIAL ROUND OF QPF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN
PARTICULAR HAVE COME MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS OF SHOWING SNOW /WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS/ MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU RECEIVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH THE
EAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. STILL...WIDESPREAD
MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...WITH 3
TO 6 INCHES /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/ THROUGHOUT THE
VALLEY...AND 6-10 INCHES /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/. GIVEN THE COLD...SUBFREEZING AIR THAT WILL HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE FOR 24-36 HOURS...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE.
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRIER SNOW...WITH
RATIOS OF 13:1 OR 14:1 BEING COMMON. THIS FACTOR COULD LEAD TO EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...BUT LOCATIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COULD
SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BEFORE
THINGS TAPER OFF. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS COULD LINGER ON THE GROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS....RESULTING
IN HUGE SOCIETAL IMPACT POTENTIALLY. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE
AND ALL OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. AS
MENTIONED THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND
WANTS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT AND A LOT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...GIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AND SOME SLEET/ICE TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. GIVEN THAT THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER...HAVE MAINTAINED AN ALL SNOW FORECAST FOR MOST OF TUESDAY
FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OVERALL...THINK THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DEFINITELY BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN MONDAY. BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR SO IF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TRENDS FURTHER WEST. MODELS
SHOW A STRONG COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THINGS CLEAR
OFF BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...A RARITY FOR OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS! THIS WILL
ONLY HELP TO REINFORCE ANY SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND KEEP UNTREATED
ROADS SLICK AND ICY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE FOCUSED MOST OF THE DETAIL IN THE NEXT 4
TO 5 DAYS.

weatherbob
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