Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
+16
Jscentraltn
Pamphobeteus
fire rescue87
Math/Met
Grandpa Nasty
bigbris
weatherbob
realdeal2414
snowman72
etnwx
windstorm
Jed33
ashleyj89
Toot
Pman1618
Neals
20 posters
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Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Ok, I will see if I can't get some mojo going for us. Models have been hinting at some decent snow accumulations in the early part of next week. The last 24 hours they have been trending in our favor. We still have some big runs to pay attention too and time before we know exactly what will happen. However, now may be a good time to get a thread for this one because it's certainly got our attention.
Neals- Member
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Location : Cocke
Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
If the 12z Canadian happens....oh mannnn
Pman1618- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Here's some of the latest model runs
12z Canadian
12z American ensemble mean (GEFS)
12z American op (GFS)
12z UKMET
Waiting on the Euro
12z Canadian
12z American ensemble mean (GEFS)
12z American op (GFS)
12z UKMET
Waiting on the Euro
Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Hi can someone tell me about the time frame we can expect this to happen if it does because I will be leaving from West TN Monday night or Tuesday morning and headed to Gatlinburg to the mountains. Should I leave early and if so when do you think? Thanks!!
ashleyj89- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
ashleyj89 wrote:Hi can someone tell me about the time frame we can expect this to happen if it does because I will be leaving from West TN Monday night or Tuesday morning and headed to Gatlinburg to the mountains. Should I leave early and if so when do you think? Thanks!!
Looks like a Monday through Wednesday scenario for the state of TN...
12z EURO
Consider me giddy...lol
Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Now that's what I'm talking bout lol!
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
That would make my winter. If this holds.
windstorm- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
GGEM FTW!
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Lol it's hard to read the scale on the cmc
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
If this happens, I promise I won't complain about this winter anymore!
Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
This could be BIGGER than the BIG dog !! woof woof !!
etnvolman- Member
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Age : 53
Location : sevierville,tn
Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Got a pic of the GGEM ??
Pman1618- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Sorry guys. I have a bad habit for abbreviating model names. The GGEM is the Canadian. It's also called the cmc, or Canuck sometimes. The GFS is just the GFS or American model. GEFS is the ensemble blend of the GFS. European model is ECMWF, EC, Euro. UKMET is the British model. Hope that helps. Toot posted the Canadian and all the other maps above.
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Sorry,I got it now...but forreal I would take any of those models right now
Pman1618- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
MRX is still being cautious although they did raise an eyebrow.
Jed33- Admin
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winter threat
Jed33 wrote:MRX is still being cautious although they did raise an eyebrow.
The models look pretty good the GFS was trying to show something like this weeks ago, but you know long range is no good that far out. So we should keep a eye on all the models and see if they come to more of agreement on this system, if so this may be the best snow we will have so far this year Let's hope!!!!
weatherbob- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Yep agreed it has more going for it than the last system(s) we have seen.
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Picked up close to a quarter of an inch of snow in a heavy squall this afternoon! Still on the ground despite the sun
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Yep actually has a chance of being right too. The south trend has me worried on this one actually and here's why: in this case, the ridge axis shifting east is what is driving this southern shift. That and weaker energy. All year long we have seen the ridge modeled too far west and it corrects east. Up till now, this was not giving us a southern shift. However, now it is. I think this is why the models continue to shift south, and may continue even further. I'm afraid KY may be out of this one and if it keeps up, TN as well. I'm not giving up, but I'm not as excited as I was earlier. We'll seem what the 18z GEFS says here soon.
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
??? No way !!! Come back !!!
etnvolman- Member
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Location : sevierville,tn
Models
Jed33 wrote:Yep actually has a chance of being right too. The south trend has me worried on this one actually and here's why: in this case, the ridge axis shifting east is what is driving this southern shift. That and weaker energy. All year long we have seen the ridge modeled too far west and it corrects east. Up till now, this was not giving us a southern shift. However, now it is. I think this is why the models continue to shift south, and may continue even further. I'm afraid KY may be out of this one and if it keeps up, TN as well. I'm not giving up, but I'm not as excited as I was earlier. We'll seem what the 18z GEFS says here soon.
What's the two best model runs, the 12z and 6z or the 0z and 18z? Because two of them lack observations added to them. I noticed the 18z has pushed it more east off the coast, so if that happens NC could see the snow instead of us!!
weatherbob- Member
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
I think the new GFS is the same at any time stamp which for it is not saying much. The upgrade did away with the old problems. However, it brought a whole new set of biases lol. I still believe we could see snow just not sure how much
Last edited by Jed33 on 2015-02-12, 6:19 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Clarified post)
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
18z GEFS looks good. Doesn't really look like the op so that's good
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Winter Storm Threat 16th-18th
Jed33 wrote:18z GEFS looks good. Doesn't really look like the op so that's good
What models are you using?
weatherbob- Member
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