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Low Cape severe weather outbreak next Tuesday?

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Low Cape severe weather outbreak next Tuesday?

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-25, 4:21 pm


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250940
SPC AC 250940

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VALID 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS BLOCKING REMAINS PROMINENT AT LONGITUDES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST...SIZABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...AND WITHIN THE MODEL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...CONCERNING SHORT
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM SPLIT BELTS OF WESTERLIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO APPEAR TO BE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...MAINLY
NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD
INCLUDE AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES...FROM
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE
LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE APPARENT LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVOLVING
PATTERN...THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE /DAY 7-8/...THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
ANY BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE WEAK...AT BEST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECURRING SOUTHWARD SURGES OF COLD SURFACE-BASED AIR
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT.

..KERR.. 02/25/2015

Projected high temperatures for next Tuesday in the Tennessee Valley are in the low 60s and south into Alabama could reach 70°. If there is enough destabilization it is possible that we could have some tornadoes in the Ohio,Tennessee and Alabama area.

Pamphobeteus
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Join date : 2015-02-14

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Re: Low Cape severe weather outbreak next Tuesday?

Post by Pamphobeteus on 2015-02-26, 8:24 am


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260955
SPC AC 260955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAIN HIGHLY UNCLEAR
WITH LARGE SPREAD EVIDENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS
PERIOD. ON THE LARGER SCALE...BLOCKING WITHIN THE MID/UPPER FLOW
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT AT LATITUDES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST...WHILE SPLIT BELTS OF DOWNSTREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN
BROADLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO...AND THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERN
CANADIAN VORTEX.

IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD REINFORCE COLD SURFACE RIDGING TO THE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...AS A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE RETURN DOES SEEM LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EMERGES FROM TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES...BEFORE CONTINUING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL
COULD BECOME MAXIMIZED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH AT LEAST THIS
IMPULSE...STILL APPEARS LOW...AND THE EXTENT OF EVEN WEAK WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCLEAR.

AT THIS TIME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
STILL APPEAR BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 02/26/2015

It appears like much of the forcing will be in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley's. It looks like the question will be will be enough destabilization.

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