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Tennessee Weather Spot :: Weather Discussion :: Winter Weather

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Post by Neals 2015-02-23, 12:27 pm

Looks like models are hinted towards a nice snow threat. (Especially eastern tenn.) Of course nothing is set in stone at this point but things seem to be trending this way. Let's see what happens. Personally I am starting to get tired of the cold, wet, and like of sunshine but this migh be a pretty good setup for some accumulating snow. I figured we might as well be tracking this thing.

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Post by Jscentraltn 2015-02-23, 12:38 pm

Some of the hi res models do bring it further north, but the 12z GFS and Canadian keep it well south. If the 2 can come together, then we may have problems! But the plains energy coming in will have to pull the southern energy north..... Can it do it? Poss! By tomorrow we should know... Nam hires has just about all of tn in mod precip......
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Post by Jscentraltn 2015-02-23, 12:46 pm

Here it is....
Possible 25-26 snow 16bisk1
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Post by Jscentraltn 2015-02-23, 12:50 pm

Verses the gfs, big diffrence!
Possible 25-26 snow F53w2o
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Post by Jscentraltn 2015-02-23, 2:00 pm

Here is the 12z euro at 60hrs.....
Possible 25-26 snow J64il4
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Post by snowman72 2015-02-23, 2:08 pm

This looks like it will miss us

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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 2:20 pm

Northern Alabama will get the snow

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Post by Jscentraltn 2015-02-23, 2:33 pm

I still think it's to early to say who gets what... The models still are not in agreement and will not be until tomorrow at some point, once all these little waves get out of the way!
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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 4:45 pm

I have seen no model information that supports snow this far north into Tennessee. With the current modeling information of the position of the low this favors a North Alabama snow. Unfortunately to me it looks like Tennessee will miss out on this one.

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Post by Toot 2015-02-23, 5:21 pm

Hi Res models have been whooping ass and taking names wih these lows verifying much furher north. Right now the NAM and RGEM both say game on for middle to east TN
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Post by Jscentraltn 2015-02-23, 5:55 pm

Dude I posted above the hi Res nam, to say no model shows this is crazy.... You have to look at them all! North Alabama will get snow but the nam says we do too!
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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 5:57 pm

Well the position of that low favors snow in Alabama. If we get anything it would be very minimal

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Post by Toot 2015-02-23, 5:57 pm

The NAM handles closed lows at 500mb better than global models at this range and always has. Even MRX is going with the NAM


Last edited by Toot on 2015-02-23, 6:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 5:59 pm

Well the NAM I saw from the Alabama weather blog showed snow for north Alabama only... Just saying

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Post by Toot 2015-02-23, 6:00 pm

Pamphobeteus wrote:Well the NAM I saw from the Alabama weather blog showed snow for north Alabama only... Just saying

Latest NAM

Possible 25-26 snow 10592804_782416365199451_5903019598031757668_n
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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:02 pm

Not to mention the amounts of up to 8 inches these models are putting out are ridiculous. Maybe 1-3 tops for the top spots

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Post by Toot 2015-02-23, 6:07 pm

Pamphobeteus wrote:Not to mention the amounts of up to 8 inches these models are putting out are ridiculous. Maybe 1-3 tops for the top spots  
Why? Not uncommon for places around the south to get big totals!! I got 6 inches just from an arctic front the other day.....lol
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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:07 pm

Ok according to the latest NAM 2-3 inches... AHHHHH no... In north Alabama maybe

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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:09 pm

This is a totally different set up then when you got 6". This low is much farther south and not as strong

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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:16 pm

Not to mention the national weather service is saying a dusting from a line starting at Murfreesboro south...

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Post by Toot 2015-02-23, 6:16 pm

Pamphobeteus wrote:This is a totally different set up then when you got 6". This low is much farther south and not as strong
Lol..you're correct this is a totally different setup!! There was no low at all on the arctic front..it was just squeezing the moisture outta the air. This is an upper level low setup which are known to be hefty snow producers with loads of dynamic cooling. But anyways take it how u want....

Latest nam at 500MB
Possible 25-26 snow NamSE_500_avort_051

I got over 10 inches from an upper level low on Halloween just last year! (October)
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Post by weatherbob 2015-02-23, 6:18 pm

Here's a couple images from two different Nam Models[img]Possible 25-26 snow 2015-011[/img]


[img]Possible 25-26 snow 2015-012[/img]

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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:19 pm

Ok valid points but the positioning still favors the snow for Alabama not TN. So even if there are heavier amounts they will be to our south

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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:21 pm

Well snow in Far East TN and North GA makes sense. All I am saying is middle TN will be lucky to see an inch. Along the Appalachians sure...

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Post by Pamphobeteus 2015-02-23, 6:23 pm

Toot your pretty far north aren't you? Wouldn't this put you out of the snow entirely?

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