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Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by fire rescue87 on 2015-11-20, 6:30 pm

Might have to start a new thread on this winter 15/16!
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2015-11-21, 8:01 am

The last 30 to 45 day snow map I have seen, showed snow across the state of tenn.
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2015-11-22, 2:52 pm

And the first snow threat now showing up on 12z GFS CMC and EURO near day 10. Of course its day 10 but all three started showing today. So i guess its trackable..lol

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2015-11-24, 11:26 am

Toot have you already put your winter forecast out ? If so i must have missed it somewhere.
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2015-11-25, 9:32 am

Unlike the last couple of years we are goin to be stepping into winter around the correct time frame. We had been on a trend of it starting early each year. Maybe we have a shift of something else too. I do think east tennesse is located in a favorable spot for the weather pattern. It seems like the plateau always does well. I am niot sure about west Tennesse. I don't spend anytime watching the weather patterns and how they affect the west side of the state.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2015-11-29, 5:15 pm

windstorm wrote:Toot have you already put your winter forecast out ? If so i must have missed it somewhere.

No..i havent! I cant seem to be confident on anything this winter so I havent moved forward. Strong El Nino argues for current warm pattern to persist deep into winter.. but a likely -EPO/-AO argues for a colder pattern to replace the current one. Hard to decide which of these will dominante the longwave atmospheric weather pattern across North America. So im really stuck and afraid to put my neck out. Part of me wants to say above average snow and warmer than normal temps but that really dont make alot of sense either..lol

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-11-29, 6:49 pm

I'm with you on that toot! I was going to try and do a winter forecast this year, but I'm afraid as well.... So since this would be my first I'm not doing one this time... Work has been very busy this year so not many post.... The models are going to be at there worst this winter...... Going to be very interesting to see the outcome... I know with the strong elnino the south will be active with storms, but will we have the cold?

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-11-29, 7:00 pm

Here is the 45 day snow outlook. If this occurred it would be late December early Jan.....


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-11-29, 7:28 pm

I will say temps look normal to above normal for most of dec, until right around Christmas time. the cfs shows going colder into the first week in Jan... Maybe we can get a snow threat around that time......




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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2015-12-01, 11:15 am

Here the final call for the winter forecast for the U.S.A. This was out on November 8, 2015http://firsthandweather.com/1195/firsthand-weathers-final-2015-16-winter-forecast/
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-05, 12:53 pm

Heading into the middle of December it looks to get very active with storms. The models will be all over the place with the placements until closer Till time, but for know it looks like some lake cutters..... By the end of the month we may start talking about our first real threat...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 10:44 am

as time gets closer to the graphic I posted earlier about the temps around Christmas through the 1st week in Jan grows warmer and warmer. Here is a new run for the same time frame.... Now it is until about the middle of Jan before any real cold air sets in? I'm not really excited about this up coming winter just yet. There are a lot of things that could make it great or really bad...



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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 12:08 pm

As you can see the next 16 day for Nashville expected to be above normal...





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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 12:22 pm

This is why I'm ok with saying a dry mild winter.... Lol!


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 12:48 pm

Here are the temp and precip outlook for Jan-feb....
From the cfs...







http://oi65.tinypic.com/anbv3k.jpg

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2015-12-06, 1:05 pm

MOTHER OF GOD= 12Zgfs today sneaky

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 1:19 pm

What? This one or that one.... Lol... It will get active for a period going into the middle of the month...




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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 7:28 pm

Speaking of warm look at next weekend from the euro. If this is the case there could be some record highs broken!


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2015-12-06, 7:28 pm

The middle of the month storm has my attention but not for snow..lol

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-06, 7:35 pm


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2015-12-10, 9:55 am

15 day's out. BUT, and there always but to this....http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kcha.txt this show sn for my area. I Know it won't happen. now if you are late looking at this
it may not be there since models are alwalys updating.. rfl
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2015-12-12, 12:50 pm

These are posts I make on my FB Blog as the pattern is getting much more active with lots of energy I expect I will be posting on a daily basis the rest of the winter

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast/posts/935545443219875


https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast/posts/934523759988710



https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast/photos/a.275405409233885.61040.275381239236302/935318983242521/?type=3&theater


IMPORTANT...You have to have a facebook account to view my posts. If u dont have one and dont want to create one just tell me and I will copy and paste.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2015-12-15, 8:52 am

Speaking of warm EL Nino Decembers here is last years December compared to the first half of this December and what happened afterwards. Just kept getting colder from late Dec through Feb!!!




Here is also a link to my newest "Local" Oscillation discussion

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast/posts/936740686433684

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2015-12-16, 10:06 am

Light Upslope snowfall accumulations are a good possibility this weekend as the NW flow machine kicks in after cold front passes


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2015-12-18, 2:28 pm

Well! I can at least say I saw some snow before Christmas.... Lol!!!!!! Around 9:30 we had about an hour worth of snow showers move through, nothing majors but it was snow!

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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