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Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by nhickman on 2016-01-20, 12:14 pm

i'm am simply an observer...NEVER posted before because I don't know enough to speak about the science of weather intelligently, but I have to ask...

Why is NWS MRX not updating the East TN forecast for Friday to align with new model data? I would think two days out, it would be time to start warning of the potential.

Thanks for helping me learn and understand! You guys rock!

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 12:53 pm

Hey nHickman! Don't feel that way.... I'm just learning myself, I have always been a weather nut..... Always ask if you don't know.... Someone will answer....

I would think before the day is over we will be under a winter storm watch... A lot of what we post and show are the same things the local Mets and NWS look at. The models are tools for a forecast so a lot of the time they gather all info before they update.... There are so many things to look at before you forecast it truly takes time.... That's why I post something from every computer model run, so you guys can see how they change so often... Forecasting is not easy. I will look at the euro that is about to run for 12z and post some images from the run.... I will say that this storm will be high impact and that there will be some 1 inch rates per hour or more and the wind will be very gusty... As far as snow accum hard to pinpoint the sweet spot right now, but i would say 3-6 inches or more in the band that sets up.... Later

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by nhickman on 2016-01-20, 1:12 pm

Thanks for the explanation! I look forward to your analysis. I'm hoping for a doozy!

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 1:21 pm

All I can say is WOW!!!! If the euro is to be correct... I will say the last 3 runs have not changed very much.. Someone will get rocked with this storm.... It is still running but here are the new snowfall totals from the 12z......



Last edited by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 1:41 pm

This is why I say it hasn't changed much!!! Other than precip amounts and strength. the placement has been the same..... This is from the 12z euro yesterday...



Last edited by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 4:50 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by fire rescue87 on 2016-01-20, 1:57 pm

Off the euro, I hope the low comes back sw 30 miles
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2016-01-20, 3:07 pm

TWC Channel for chattanooga this weekend has us in the 3 to 5 inch range.
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 3:22 pm

Just as I thought! Just about the whole state is now under a winter storm watch... I will update later..

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 3:28 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
213 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS CANCELLED...

...A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

THE WINTRY MIX THAT PLAGUED MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW
MOVED EAST. ALTHOUGH MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING...NO ADDITIONAL SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>065-075-210300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160123T1800Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-BEDFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...SHELBYVILLE
213 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...6 AM FRIDAY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW ON ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2016-01-20, 3:28 pm

thanks
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 3:32 pm

Lol!!! Look at the main impacts.... Like we didn't know that.... No other details on what will happen...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 4:36 pm


CURRENTLY UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GEARING UP IN
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW THEN TRACKS UP THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY WHILE CLOSED 850
MBAR LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER. SOMEWHAT RARE TO
SEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.
SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY AND
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WIT

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 4:46 pm

Just as I was thinking earlier! I will say wherever this band sets up. the snow will be very heavy and not at all out of the question for some Thundersnow. The NAM 18z is just a little colder but is holding the same as last couple runs... It is keeping some of our far nw counties in a mix until the transition to all snow... Just waiting on the 18z gfs to finish to see what it is showing...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-20, 5:09 pm

This is my forecast for tomorrow night from the NWS... Low 31 and thunderstorms?

Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 31. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2016-01-20, 5:17 pm

4 inches in Newport from a damn clipper..Jesus

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by fire rescue87 on 2016-01-20, 9:27 pm

Jscentraltn, i40 west and mid tn going to slammed if I saw the right map. I will take it!
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by etnvolman on 2016-01-26, 7:59 am

anyone seeing anything late next week ?? our local guy said something about it ?

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2016-01-26, 1:17 pm

Last weeks snow some of you got hammer. Here in Chattanooga we got the ground white and a few spots got up to an inch of snow. Looking ahead somewhere after ground hog day, much colder air will move back in.Of course this is 10 days out or so and anything can happen. But winter is not over. So enjoy the warm up while it last. Hoping Feb will be better than Jan was for me an others.
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-30, 1:07 pm

Hey guys! What a difference a week makes. Last week snow everywhere, now sunny and 65... All I can say is enjoy it while you have it.... It all goes away by mid week. Feb looks to be full of all kinds of excitement! I'm already starting to watch something around 9-11th. I know it is over a week away, but the models have been hinting at this on all runs for about a full day now... So enjoy. I will update later...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-31, 2:52 pm


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by etnwx on 2016-02-03, 12:25 pm

How about that rain last night? I recorded 2.22" since midnight. Far more than expected I think.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-04, 10:12 pm

Had some pretty bad flooding here in cheatham county! They had to make a couple of water rescues... We had a little over 4 inches in about a 3 to 4 hr window.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-04, 10:17 pm

Looking at next week! Turning colder mon with some light rain/snow mix going over to snow showers and light snow off and on through about wed-Thur... Accum will be light! I will post later tomorrow after I look at some more modeling... I can see some places picking up 1-3 inches....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-05, 11:32 am

These totals are on a 10:1 ratio.... So some areas will see higher numbers.. This is not a major deal, but will be more of a nuisance... It's not looking as cold for next week as what was model just a few days ago. It will still be cold.. This pattern is pretty crazy. After all this moves out I would not be surprised at a overrunning set up taking place by mid month.... Anyways I will update later... One day at a time in this setup because the models suck!


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-08, 6:26 pm

Already at my snowfall amount forecasted by local mets! This will continue off and on until tomorrow afternoon for mid ten. I still say a general 1-3. The further sw less... The amount I have came from about a 15min snow shower! Update later....



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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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