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Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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winter storming

Post by realdeal2414 on 2016-02-08, 9:12 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Already at my snowfall amount forecasted by local mets! This will continue off and on until tomorrow afternoon for mid ten. I still say a general 1-3. The further sw less... The amount I have came from about a 15min snow shower! Update later....

What are your thoughts on the end of the week and late weekend and early next week?  thanks for the udates

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-08, 9:57 pm

Hey realdeal2414! I think there is a storm coming, but the gfs still is not really on board. The euro and Canadian show the storm. I will start looking at this possibility around wed-Thur timeframe.... I think the south and east are in a good spot right now for another significant snowstorm.... But right now it's still to early for details..... Timeframe would be sat-mon.... I will update later....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-08, 10:13 pm

Here are some of the totals so far!!! I live in cheatham county. It's showing 2 inches. At the house we are at a little over an inch right now and still snowing. I can see how some spots in the county have 2 inches. Forecasters missed that one. We are under a winter weather advisory until 6am wed morning now...


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by realdeal2414 on 2016-02-08, 10:34 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Hey realdeal2414! I think there is a storm coming, but the gfs still is not really on board. The euro and Canadian show the storm. I will start looking at this possibility around wed-Thur timeframe.... I think the south and east are in a good spot right now for another significant snowstorm.... But right now it's still to early for details..... Timeframe would be sat-mon.... I will update later....

Thanks

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-10, 7:25 pm

Looking into late sun into mon.... No real confidence yet.... The models are still out of sorts with the placement of lp and depth of cold air left, and how much moisture.... So I will not post maps just yet! We will get a storm as this energy dives in and moves east... The question is ice,snow,rain/snow mix? I still can see this thing rounding the bend and cutting west of the apps... I will update as new model runs come in and are a little clearer. For now don't chew your finger nails off.... Smile

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-10, 8:12 pm

This is just one of many. I know I said I wouldn't, but I can't help it....lol. this is the control run of the 12z euro... Just for fun! Not saying this much or this is the path the storm will go.... There will be a winter storm affecting our area.... Remember details are still muddy...

Eye candy


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by realdeal2414 on 2016-02-10, 10:02 pm

nice

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by jeffmac99 on 2016-02-10, 11:19 pm

beautiful!! cheers

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-11, 11:57 am

Hey toot! According to the 12z gfs, this poss storm for sun-mon comes as a 2 part system then the one taking over. Do you really believe it will erode all the cold air that quick to be mainly a rain event? That's only from the 12z gfs..... Thanks.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-11, 12:00 pm

I know the Canadian has been consistent at hammering just about the whole state.... I will post later this evening. A lot of work to do today..

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-11, 5:19 pm

Still working, but some thoughts...... The 18z gfs running now it is still holding serve.... It has a warmer storm with mainly rain! It will start as snow or mix to rain and end as a burst of snow.... Is it right? I don't know! I'm torn.... I like the Canadian, but it has the storm way south which is good for us (colder). I think the gfs may be right, but I think it is wrong with how far north the warm nose makes it! I will update when I get off from work.....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-11, 8:35 pm

Still nothing guys! we have to wait Until this clipper and front passes through tomorrow. Then energy for the poss storm can get better sampled once ashore.... The models still have no real track or how strong it will be! I don't think the gfs understands how cold this artic air will be. Maybe by tomorrow evening or sat morning it will become clear.... We will have some type of impact from this storm.... Who? What? When? How much?. Later............

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2016-02-12, 3:28 am

Jscentraltn wrote:Still nothing guys! we have to wait Until this clipper and front passes through tomorrow. Then energy for the poss storm can get better sampled once ashore.... The models still have no real track or how strong it will be! I don't think the gfs understands how cold this artic air will be. Maybe by tomorrow evening or sat morning it will become clear.... We will have some type of impact from this storm.... Who? What? When? How much?. Later............

Wise words..too many back and forths as the slightest movement in LP track will mean major differences. The energy needs sampled first before these models get a clue. Sat night should have much better data

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-02-12, 11:22 am

Well this latest price of energy has given my backyard a paste job. It is doing a lot of accumulating.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by secleveland on 2016-02-12, 2:17 pm

we had more snow this am then we have had all year this Am .
but its all gone now

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by etnwx on 2016-02-12, 5:14 pm

Had about 1.4" of snow today with a high of 36.6.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-12, 11:14 pm

Still nothing set! I will wait for the euro... I will say that north of i40 might be in the best spot for this one.... I will start posting img's tomorrow at some point... One thing that is starting to concern me is going to be the freezing rain.... Like I said though, all over the place still... Later...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-13, 8:36 am

Quick update..... It's looking like north of i40 still is in the best spot for snow for sun-sun night. The models are starting to align for this on the last few runs.... Still a lot of bust potential on this... This is for sun and sun night.... The models still have no handle on the storm that forms on mon, but it does look like return flow will be strong enough for mainly rain during that time frame.... Here is the 6z gfs it looks a littler warmer than the 0z run... Temps will be key! Tough forecast....... I will update later tonight....



Once again.... As of now most models are close to this for sun/sun night..... This could go up or down big time... Temps????

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by windstorm on 2016-02-13, 10:29 am

looks like a cold rain for Chattanooga. this winter has been a dud down this way.
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-13, 1:41 pm

Quick update!!! Looking at the model data, they seem to be coming together as far as nam and euro. They are farther nw therefore less snow and warmer.... The gfs still kinda strung out and further e... A general 1-3 north of I40 seems likely. Kentucky looks good! I will check the 18z and 0z runs later this evening and post... Walking the line! Later....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-13, 11:12 pm

Looking at a couple of the 0z runs (NAM). It is coming in colder and slower to erode the cold air, also it now is bringing the heavier band back south a little. Good for people north of i40 as far as higher snow totals. Has not changed much south of i40. very little if any! But still not high confidence for this...... Will check the euro when it runs.... Still thinking 1-3 is good. some spots maybe 4 or 5.... will be a nowcasting situation..... The models just suck in a setup like this. I will post the euro totals when it runs....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-14, 11:16 am

Just watching radar trends and temp profiles..... The band of moderate snow is setting up as modeled..... Still think 1-3 is right north of i40, but there have been some brighter returns showing up and if this is all snow and not a mix the the numbers will go up... We will see! I know Paducah ky about an hr ago had thunder snow! I have light sleet and flurries. My temp went from 27.1 to 25.9 as the precip started.... I will update later...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Toot on 2016-02-14, 1:43 pm

Its just now starting here

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-02-14, 7:13 pm

Hey toot! I hope you ended with some snow up your way. I know that band looked pretty solid, when it came through here it was more scattered in nature. I had just a trace of sleet here. My high was 32.2 now this next band has devoleped and is more filled in, I now have frz rain and temp has dropped backed down to 29.1... This was and still is a tough forecast.....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by secleveland on 2016-02-17, 1:07 pm

looking good in 7 days as long as we get the cold air back at the right time

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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