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Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-13, 1:22 pm

Euro is with the Canadian! That's why I'm not sold just yet on the storm..... But I will say the gfs has beat them on the surface so we will see.....
12z euro



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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-13, 8:02 pm

I'm not sold on the storm just yet! But the gfs is the only one still showing this.... I just looked at the nam and it only goes out to 84 hrs. it does show energy from the north trying to catch this southern system for the weekend so there still may be hope..... Until I see the euro catching on I'm not to excited! Here is the nam.




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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-13, 10:40 pm

The nam is starting to see the storm but it is well south around where the gfs was showing it on mon.... Theses are the last 2 runs of the nam.

18z run


0z run


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-13, 11:06 pm

The 0z gfs that is running now, still has a storm but it is farther south looks almost like the nam just a little farther north.... I will post after the 12z runs tomorrow....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-14, 12:28 am

Well, maybe we will wake up with some support from the king.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-14, 10:06 am

A lot of models to check out today. I cant wait till we get something solid from the NAM.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-14, 11:52 am

Things remain the same.... Only had time to look at the gfs and it is still running, But it looks like this one is down and out the phase never really happens... Other than some snow showers with the artic front that looks to be about it for this weekend... So enjoy the warm up before the cold strikes again.... The models will show many storms as they are and have, but it's hard not to get excited a few days away and then its gone... It will be a tough forecasting season for sure... Enjoy! I'll post later...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-14, 2:00 pm

I am not giving completely up until about 60 hrs out with the NAM. Don't forget how the models always act. That last and often big NW trend around 60 hrs out.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-14, 2:50 pm

Honestly I was with the gfs on this yesterday! If you remember it was the only one showing really anything at all coming through the south a week or so back. It has also won with the surface so far.... So yesterday when the nam and others starting showing the small energy coming out of the south they all placed it where the gfs was showing originally cutting across northern Florida... Then low and behold if the gfs didn't go back to where it started... I looked at the 12z euro and it has the weak impulse sliding through but nothing major.... We will see but I'm out on this one! I hope I eat my words but everything i have seen says no go.... Talk soon..

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-14, 2:58 pm

Here is what the 12z euro shows for that time... You can see the northern energy.... They just don't hook up....




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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-14, 8:27 pm

I hear you. I don't care if the GFS ends up being wrong. If I am in the game then it's on my team. Well I guess it's like fantasy weather. It's like batting in baseball. If the count is favorable then I am looking for a fastball to drive. Or maybe Murphys Law. The pattern is good, so it will happen. BUT, I live in in a area that would do 5-6 inches compared to 1-2 for 75% of the people that live within 200 miles of me in this set up.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-14, 9:17 pm

Hey!!! Want to see something funny.... Smile



Something more funny and only a few days later... Smile


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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-14, 9:31 pm

Wow. It's like I didn't see the forest because of the trees. It's like puttin a quarter in the machine at a batting cage. Just stand there and try to hit everything down the middle. I hadn't see those frames.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Neals on 2016-01-14, 9:46 pm

Btw, I find the 22nd to be one of my favorite looks in the last several years. I don't actually look at snow maps though. I usually favor the statistical side of things.

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-17, 11:17 am

I'm not going to post images, but it was looking pretty good this week for snow chances.... Then you guessed it! Cold for a day or 2 then now the storms are slipping farther north therefore warmer and rain... So we will see the trends. but right now I'm thinking from the 2 storms may start as a breif mix over to a cold rain back to flurries at the end....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Pman1618 on 2016-01-18, 1:34 pm

Anybody watching Friday's storm???

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 6:40 pm

Yeah! Pman 1618.... What are you seeing and thinking?

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 6:54 pm

This is the 18z gfs run at 4pm... The first image is the deform band setting up. The second is the snowfall poss... Remember this is still 4 days away and will change some, but all models are on for a major storm in our region.. Wherever this band sets up will have the heaviest accums... That's the question..... We all will see snow... Would not surprise me to see thundersnow with this set up. it is a very powerful storm...






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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 6:55 pm

I'm not to excited just yet.....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 7:09 pm

Does anyone post here anymore? Or do I just talk to myself?

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 7:11 pm

One other thing and I'm out! This also could produce some freezing rain on Friday before the changer over to moderate snow... Also if it is as strong as prog by the models the wind will be a big issue 25-35mph range....

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 7:48 pm

Toot do you think the euro will come farther south than its 12z run? I know they will waffle around some... I also know if it happens as is now, we will all see snow...but I'm talking as far as bigger snows?

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by fire rescue87 on 2016-01-18, 8:18 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Does anyone post here anymore? Or do I just talk to myself?


Talk to yourself...I'm just here for the maps!
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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 8:23 pm

What maps? Oh! The ones I post...

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

Post by Jscentraltn on 2016-01-18, 8:27 pm

I'm sure news 2,4,5 gotcha ya covered!!!!! I'm out!

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Re: Winter wx Discussion 2015/16

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