Bruce's severe wx playhouse
+6
Adam2014
jmundie
Stovepipe
Reb
tennessee storm09
Toot
10 posters
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
todays euro still has a nice system towards end of the month that bears watching... little early for breaking down details.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
tonights oz gfs looks very active... couple of big systems at least... one brings a shot of artic air as toot eluded to earlier..
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
by the way everyone, this week is severe weather awareness week for tennessee.. todays highlight is the severe thunderstorm...
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Wake me when the system on the 24th is gone...the one at the end of the month has my attention.
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
i couldnt agree with you more buddy, me also.Eric wrote:Wake me when the system on the 24th is gone...the one at the end of the month has my attention.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
i have a good feeling after looking at data n such, that todays 12z gfs will show case a powerhouse storm system around the end of this month...
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
well looking at todays 12zgfs, 3 systems on board... but first one later this wees is very meager in terms of severe... next 2, one around end month, and little after that have great potential... better qualiy moisture return from not only the gulf but the caribbean as well... as th se ridge trys to get stepper baseed.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
i did see were spc did pop a slight risk up on dead center of okie and kansas...
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Long-range 12z GFS/Euro continue the look from earlier runs with several days of low-level gulf moisture return prior to the energy arriving. If the PNA stays quasi-positive, and if the NAO goes negative, theres bound to be some mischief somewhere.
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
eric, what you think about the 18z nam? there is actually some nader parameters poping up on that run... but alot of question marks still.Eric wrote:Long-range 12z GFS/Euro continue the look from earlier runs with several days of low-level gulf moisture return prior to the energy arriving. If the PNA stays quasi-positive, and if the NAO goes negative, theres bound to be some mischief somewhere.
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Pretty strong support from the extended range gfs ensembles for a powerful LPS that takes a track that would be conducive for severe weather here in TN around the 27th of the month
Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
tennessee storm09 wrote:eric, what you think about the 18z nam? there is actually some nader parameters poping up on that run... but alot of question marks still.Eric wrote:Long-range 12z GFS/Euro continue the look from earlier runs with several days of low-level gulf moisture return prior to the energy arriving. If the PNA stays quasi-positive, and if the NAO goes negative, theres bound to be some mischief somewhere.
For which timeframe? Thursday event or late Feb?
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
looking at late thursday timeframe, kind of caught my attention...Eric wrote:tennessee storm09 wrote:eric, what you think about the 18z nam? there is actually some nader parameters poping up on that run... but alot of question marks still.Eric wrote:Long-range 12z GFS/Euro continue the look from earlier runs with several days of low-level gulf moisture return prior to the energy arriving. If the PNA stays quasi-positive, and if the NAO goes negative, theres bound to be some mischief somewhere.
For which timeframe? Thursday event or late Feb?
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
that time frame has had my attention for a while now.Toot wrote:Pretty strong support from the extended range gfs ensembles for a powerful LPS that takes a track that would be conducive for severe weather here in TN around the 27th of the month
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Thursday, to me, ranks slightly more than a "meh"...maybe a "hmphf". Upper level support is split between the PFJ and the STJ. With the state in that position, there's no upper level support. Temps/Tds look good, EHI looks decent (but it's more instability than actual helicity), lapse rates are mediocre, virtually no low-level wind shear.
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
I just want to say that our usernames now have more colors than an Earl Barker NAM snow map.
Carry on.
Carry on.
Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
the oznam is way less amplified with the system, wind shear is way directional... to bad, cause we have some nice dew to work with, and temps. well i am fixing to call it early tonight. work tomorrow. interested in the euro 7 to day 10 range big time... see what happens tonight
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
look for thursday[img][/img]
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Stovepipe wrote:The squall line looks weak sauce on the WRF:
Squall line doesn't actually enter Mid TN until 0z Friday (6pm Thurs). My thoughts are forthcoming......
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Yeah I deleted my post after realizing that that one isn't the one you guys were talking about. This is why I should stick to reading and not posting in severe threads!
Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
No sweat Stove. As promised:
Looking at the data, there's rather remarkable consensus among several of the model suites this morning concerning the synoptic setup; the 12z NAM, 12z GFS, and the 09z SREF all tell a similar story, pushing the cold front through the midstate around 6pm (give or take an hour or two). Working from the surface up, temps look to range between 63-67F, with the SREF peaking at 68F. Dew points are meager, ranging from 50-55F. The 12z NAM progs them to be closer to 60F, and given the timeframe, I'm inclined to believe that. Instability values are virtually non-existent with the highest readings given by the NAM (as high as 1250 j/kg across portions of west TN). Both the GFS and the SREF don't prog them any higher than 750 j/kg, probably due to the lower dew points. My money's still with the NAM. EHIs are considerably lower than the 18z runs from last night and peak out at a "reasonable" 1.0-1.5 across the western 2/3rds of the state. SRH values are equally as reasonable with both 0-1km and 0-3km SRH values being 200 m2/s2 before FROPA.
Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS show a rather broad-based trough approaching the midsouth with massive upper-level wind fields, but they're a mess. Unless the data changes, the wind fields just aren't concentrated enough to provide enough divergence to support much of a severe threat. I still expect a squall line to march through here, especially given the nature of the warm air ahead of it, and the cold air behind it, but wouldn't expect much more than a damaging wind threat.
Looking at the data, there's rather remarkable consensus among several of the model suites this morning concerning the synoptic setup; the 12z NAM, 12z GFS, and the 09z SREF all tell a similar story, pushing the cold front through the midstate around 6pm (give or take an hour or two). Working from the surface up, temps look to range between 63-67F, with the SREF peaking at 68F. Dew points are meager, ranging from 50-55F. The 12z NAM progs them to be closer to 60F, and given the timeframe, I'm inclined to believe that. Instability values are virtually non-existent with the highest readings given by the NAM (as high as 1250 j/kg across portions of west TN). Both the GFS and the SREF don't prog them any higher than 750 j/kg, probably due to the lower dew points. My money's still with the NAM. EHIs are considerably lower than the 18z runs from last night and peak out at a "reasonable" 1.0-1.5 across the western 2/3rds of the state. SRH values are equally as reasonable with both 0-1km and 0-3km SRH values being 200 m2/s2 before FROPA.
Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS show a rather broad-based trough approaching the midsouth with massive upper-level wind fields, but they're a mess. Unless the data changes, the wind fields just aren't concentrated enough to provide enough divergence to support much of a severe threat. I still expect a squall line to march through here, especially given the nature of the warm air ahead of it, and the cold air behind it, but wouldn't expect much more than a damaging wind threat.
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Interesting look from the 12z Euro concerning the system at the end of the month...heights look to take a plunge over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys, but with an associated shortwave, but the moisture machine decides to take a vacation as the BA high retrogrades back northeast. Winds turn northwest at H85 and the surface looks funky.
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Slight change to the Day 2.....
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
18z NAM has raised thermodynamic profiles a few degrees...still nothing to be concerned with (yet), but worth noting.
Eric- Severe Wx Specialist
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Re: Bruce's severe wx playhouse
Eric wrote:No sweat Stove. As promised:
Looking at the data, there's rather remarkable consensus among several of the model suites this morning concerning the synoptic setup; the 12z NAM, 12z GFS, and the 09z SREF all tell a similar story, pushing the cold front through the midstate around 6pm (give or take an hour or two). Working from the surface up, temps look to range between 63-67F, with the SREF peaking at 68F. Dew points are meager, ranging from 50-55F. The 12z NAM progs them to be closer to 60F, and given the timeframe, I'm inclined to believe that. Instability values are virtually non-existent with the highest readings given by the NAM (as high as 1250 j/kg across portions of west TN). Both the GFS and the SREF don't prog them any higher than 750 j/kg, probably due to the lower dew points. My money's still with the NAM. EHIs are considerably lower than the 18z runs from last night and peak out at a "reasonable" 1.0-1.5 across the western 2/3rds of the state. SRH values are equally as reasonable with both 0-1km and 0-3km SRH values being 200 m2/s2 before FROPA.
Both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS show a rather broad-based trough approaching the midsouth with massive upper-level wind fields, but they're a mess. Unless the data changes, the wind fields just aren't concentrated enough to provide enough divergence to support much of a severe threat. I still expect a squall line to march through here, especially given the nature of the warm air ahead of it, and the cold air behind it, but wouldn't expect much more than a damaging wind threat.
Good post Eric...Thanks for keeping us informed with good details!
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