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Snow Potential Late December

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Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-19, 9:08 am

With the GFS showing this several runs in a row, the DGEX bombing out, and the Euro sort of on board it's time we dedicated a thread to this possible snow event.

Some eye candy to get things started:

[img][/img][img][/img]

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-19, 10:15 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Well...the gfs has ensemble and canadian model support this morning so it looks like we officially have something to track.

I'll put this here since we have an official thread. I'm not seeing much if any GFS ensemble support and there is zero canadian ensemble support. Am I missing something?

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-19, 10:33 am



Is rolling.

(since Reb isn't around I took the liberty of posting his pic)
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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 10:41 am

snowdog wrote:
Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Well...the gfs has ensemble and canadian model support this morning so it looks like we officially have something to track.

I'll put this here since we have an official thread. I'm not seeing much if any GFS ensemble support and there is zero canadian ensemble support. Am I missing something?
i disagree snowdog..the ensembles have the same system to some degree...and the 0z cmc also showed a very similar setup

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-19, 10:48 am

i know that kjan, ohx, meg and even klzk out of little rock is mentioning winter type precip towards xmas or after.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 11:11 am

Im on my phone and I havent got used to posting images yet but the 0z cmc looks alot similar to the to the 0z gfs at about 168....but the nice thing about this forum is you can disagree with the admin and there is no problems....lol Very Happy

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-19, 11:22 am

0z CMC looks like rain with some backside flurries. Where are you looking at the OP CMC past 144 hours? I know Ewall has the 0z to 240.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-19, 11:27 am

So others can see and comment. Below is the 00z GFS ensembles. Basically the OP is the most aggressive. The theme seems to be, if there is precip the temps are marginal at best vs colder with no precip or very light.

at 168


Here is 174hr

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-19, 11:30 am

snowdog wrote:0z CMC looks like rain with some backside flurries. Where are you looking at the OP CMC past 144 hours? I know Ewall has the 0z to 240.
actually the 0z cmc last night supported snow on the northern fringe of the precip... if im reading the columns temps right.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-19, 11:44 am

12z GFS says Carolina Special.
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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-19, 11:45 am

GFS way south this run. no precip in tennessee. snow in AL,GA,SC,NC,VA

6z was also south of 0z which was the ETN special.

I'm not at all worried. I am in fact pretty happy with the way this is playing out on the models. You don't want to be in the bulls-eye right now and the fact that its still showing the storm is huge

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 11:51 am

snowdog....i was talking about the 6z ensembles but even they were nowhere near perfect agreement..but a few had the same general idea...keep in mind the op haz better resolution and will handle cyclogenesis better....still a few days to watch this one

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 11:53 am

Oh yeah and ewall was were I seen the cmc past 144

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 11:58 am

Reb wrote:GFS way south this run. no precip in tennessee. snow in AL,GA,SC,NC,VA

6z was also south of 0z which was the ETN special.

I'm not at all worried. I am in fact pretty happy with the way this is playing out on the models. You don't want to be in the bulls-eye right now and the fact that its still showing the storm is huge
the big question to me is does this take the classic miller a track or is it further se...that also seems to b what the models are trying to sort out

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by skillsweather on 2011-12-19, 12:38 pm

Reb wrote:GFS way south this run. no precip in tennessee. snow in AL,GA,SC,NC,VA

6z was also south of 0z which was the ETN special.

I'm not at all worried. I am in fact pretty happy with the way this is playing out on the models. You don't want to be in the bulls-eye right now and the fact that its still showing the storm is huge

I can actually see this happen. Past 2 years all the big storms have been south and east and west and north of middle Tennessee so this is the way I see this playing out. I really really hope it dont but I cant take all these models going back and forth.. I WANT SNOW..... gaah

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-19, 12:44 pm

JMA:



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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Southeastbutter on 2011-12-19, 1:44 pm

Is it true that the models have "temporarily" lost the storm?? I haven't been around today to look.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-19, 1:57 pm

The storm is still there, it's just suppressed to the south. Lots of time for things to change for better or worse.
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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-19, 5:47 pm

Storm is still suppressed, we need some northwest trend my friends! smartass

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 7:10 pm

Its really close to something nice for east TN...a slight NW shift and we are in buisness here (but dont want a drastic NW shift)...even if this 18z graphic were to verify the precip shield is likely underdid and would be more north and west as that is the case with most lows that take this track...it happened with every single gulf type low last winter.



I definately am super excited with this system...Its somewhat of a Miller A and those favor the eastern part of the state

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-19, 7:42 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:Its really close to something nice for east TN...a slight NW shift and we are in buisness here (but dont want a drastic NW shift)...even if this 18z graphic were to verify the precip shield is likely underdid and would be more north and west as that is the case with most lows that take this track...it happened with every single gulf type low last winter.

I definately am super excited with this system...Its somewhat of a Miller A and those favor the eastern part of the state
I would fear the drastic NW shift if I were you too, I need some shifting to the northwest also.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 7:58 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I would fear the drastic NW shift if I were you too, I need some shifting to the northwest also.

I really like it were it is right now...because I think there will be somewhat of a nw shift..anyways still a few days to watch....gonna be interesting smoke

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-19, 7:58 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:I would fear the drastic NW shift if I were you too, I need some shifting to the northwest also.

I really like it were it is right now...because I think there will be somewhat of a nw shift..anyways still a few days to watch....gonna be interesting smoke
Okay someone really needs to join me in the chat room lol.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Southeastbutter on 2011-12-19, 10:44 pm

Someone say something interesting.. (weather related, I don't care about your personal lives haha)

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-19, 10:52 pm

Southeastbutter wrote:Someone say something interesting.. (weather related, I don't care about your personal lives haha)

The 0zgfs is running hurry

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

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