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Snow Potential Late December

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Guest on 2011-12-19, 10:54 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Southeastbutter wrote:Someone say something interesting.. (weather related, I don't care about your personal lives haha)

The 0zgfs is running hurry

LOL @ the smily face... but yeah, bring that snowsotrm on gfs!

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-19, 11:01 pm

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
Southeastbutter wrote:Someone say something interesting.. (weather related, I don't care about your personal lives haha)

The 0zgfs is running hurry
that smiley is boss.



GO NORTH MY FRIEND

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-19, 11:12 pm

im feeling chatty

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-20, 12:55 am

how did the ensembles look?

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by John1122 on 2011-12-20, 1:22 am

The Ensembles aren't nearly as dry as the OP, but still only shows very light precip. Possibly snowflurries on the 26th/27th timeframe.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-20, 5:25 am

6z says bye bye storm again

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Vanster67 on 2011-12-20, 6:45 am

No Snow got ya Down? How is Santa gona make it here with no Dadburn Snow Fallin? Everybody knows his sleigh is held magically aloft by the power of the winter Snowflake. What are we going to do? No Snow? No Problemo!!! We're gona hit it hard sauce , Pour it on a little harder sauce and just keep suckin down the sauce until yes, there out the corners of our collective eyes we see SNOW falling from the sky with Santa Claus and his sleigh floating on the beautiful snowflakes as his Trusty Team Of Pink Elephants..... PINK ELEPHANTS!!!!!! stoned OHHHhhh. I think I need to stick with light beer. drunken [img][/img]
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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-20, 7:42 am

Jeez the 6z looks pitiful I think something went wrong in that run. We can get no cold air down here.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Guest on 2011-12-20, 7:49 am

Vanster67 wrote:No Snow got ya Down? How is Santa gona make it here with no Dadburn Snow Fallin? Everybody knows his sleigh is held magically aloft by the power of the winter Snowflake. What are we going to do? No Snow? No Problemo!!! We're gona hit it hard sauce , Pour it on a little harder sauce and just keep suckin down the sauce until yes, there out the corners of our collective eyes we see SNOW falling from the sky with Santa Claus and his sleigh floating on the beautiful snowflakes as his Trusty Team Of Pink Elephants..... PINK ELEPHANTS!!!!!! stoned OHHHhhh. I think I need to stick with light beer. drunken [img][/img]

LOL!! Classic post Van, classic post.. sauce

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-20, 9:57 am

The 0z cmc has the snowstorm but its delayed a day..

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-20, 9:58 am

fine with me toot Smile

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-20, 1:01 pm

Euro is rolling.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-20, 6:56 pm

Lol...this storm is gonna sneak up on somebody...one model loses it while another model picks it up. smoke

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-20, 7:42 pm

It also looks to be trending to more of ULL enhanced threat which will mean we wont know anything for sure until like a day before but I dont like what i'm seeing for east TN at this point

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-20, 8:00 pm

Bastrdi's map for the next three storms facepalm from his fb/twitter



yikes

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-20, 8:01 pm

blahhhhh!!!! NE tennessee only? lol

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-20, 8:04 pm

Reb wrote:blahhhhh!!!! NE tennessee only? lol

I just cant get past the three storm call map yikes

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Stovepipe on 2011-12-20, 8:17 pm

I could use the dart board in my garage and get just as good of a prediction on that third storm track. Who the hell knows at this point? Looks like he doesn't have as many nifty map making tools at his new gig as he did at Accu. Had to bust out MS Paint for that one.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2011-12-20, 8:39 pm

Adam2014 wrote:Jeez the 6z looks pitiful I think something went wrong in that run. We can get no cold air down here.
adam, we are not going to get any sustain true cold air down hee until we get some high lattitude blocking bro, lets just hope this changes man.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Reb on 2011-12-21, 5:29 am

GFS coming back around?


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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-21, 8:05 am

Reb wrote:GFS coming back around?

If you mean snow, not quite. Knoxville Skew-T 06z GFS at 102hrs.


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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Toot on 2011-12-21, 8:26 am

snowdog wrote:
If you mean snow, not quite. Knoxville Skew-T 06z GFS at 102hrs.

Would you mind explaining how that skew T works so people can understand what you're talking about...Not saying its real useful at over hundred hours out or anything, but a little explanation would be nice to go along with the graphic if you dont mind?


Last edited by Cyclonicjunkie on 2011-12-21, 8:33 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Adam2014 on 2011-12-21, 8:29 am

The GFS and the cmc sucked, the GFS had a storm but it was too warm. These models are jumping all over the place.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by Vanster67 on 2011-12-21, 8:38 am

Models are models. Not cash in the bank! J Bastardi mentions the JMA (for what it's worth) in his twitter feed. He still thinks it could snow in NE TN with the 3rd storm. Only time will tell. I mean winter just started right? I'll wait till winter is truly over to complain about it. santa
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Re: Snow Potential Late December

Post by snowdog on 2011-12-21, 10:11 am

Cyclonicjunkie wrote:
snowdog wrote:
If you mean snow, not quite. Knoxville Skew-T 06z GFS at 102hrs.

Would you mind explaining how that skew T works so people can understand what you're talking about...Not saying its real useful at over hundred hours out or anything, but a little explanation would be nice to go along with the graphic if you dont mind?

I'll give it a shot.

Red Line is Temp.
Green line is Dew Point Tmp.
Blue line is Wet Bulb Temp.

Y axis is your Pressure. 850 corresponds to your 850mb maps. 500 corresponds to 500mb. Etc. Usually the colored lines stop at the ground location. X axis is temperature in Celsius.

So find the 0 on the x axis and that is the freezing mark. Work your way up the diagonal line starting at the 0 mark. On the graph I showed you can see the column doesn't start to hit freezing till 850mb's. Meaning the lower levels from about a mile up in the air down to the ground are too warm to support frozen precip.

Also you can see the colored lines come together at 500mb and stay together. This is indicative of a saturated column. In say a virga storm you may see them together from 500 to 850 then spread apart meaning the whole column isn't saturated thus while it looks like precip on a radar it isn't making it to the ground.

Sleet signature would have warm temps aloft and cold temps from about 850 down. Freezing rain would show warm air aloft and a cold layer right at the surface.

There is also a way to interpret snow growth regions from the skew-t but I'm not very good explaining that as I don't understand that facet of the graph fully.

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Re: Snow Potential Late December

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