Spring 2012 weather discussion

Clear skies today giving a good view of any storms that pop. I currently can see the storms in Anderson Co. all the way over here in eastern Sevier. Large mass of towering cumulus & cumulonimbus visible in the north and western sky.

Pretty decent hailer over at the Sequatchie Valley.




Edit: 2:50pm

Now 1 to 1.25 inch hail in this cluster north of Maynardville.



Edit: 3:08pm

Now 90% chance of severe hail up to 1.75 inch.

Too many criss-crossing gust fronts from dying convection have pretty much squashed chances for storms in my neck of the woods. Had a significant gust front come through about an hour ago--could even see it on MRX radar. It did feel very refreshing, but the cool, stable air won't allow for any further updrafts to form now, at least not without the aid of some upper level support. Dang it...

Big difference in local temp forecast for this weekend seen on morning news. WVLT says we could have highs near 96F. WBIR and WATE both say lower 90s (91-93F). 96F in May? Wow, I'd have to believe that would be an all-time record high for the month. I'm not able to check this morning. Seems MRX web site is down.

It's been a cloudy morning in my neck of the woods. Hopefully, there is still enough solar insolation to warm temps and generate some instability/lift, but I'm beginning to think storms are going to be pretty widely scattered if we don't see some more breaks in the clouds today.

Sky has grown very dark here, and I've heard some rumbles of thunder. But storms are moving SOOO slow. Seem to be drifting south, so who knows if I'll see rain. It appears the storms are just sitting and raining themselves out over one area.

As we head into summer the NAO looks to stay mostly negative. That should keep the summer ridge at bay for the most part

Though

WxFreak wrote:Sky has grown very dark here, and I've heard some rumbles of thunder. But storms are moving SOOO slow. Seem to be drifting south, so who knows if I'll see rain. It appears the storms are just sitting and raining themselves out over one area.

I can definitely relate to the slow movement of these storms. I just picked up about 3/4 of an inch in the last hour and a half. Most of that fell in about 20 min. During the heaviest part of the event, and it's still lightly raining. Everything sucked it right up though. A true example of how dry it was getting around here. I really hope we can keep some relatively wet soils in the coming weeks. I have seen some signs though, that have me concerned.

Thankfully, I finally got in on the rain. Strangely enough, it has moved in from the northeast. Been pouring pretty steadily for about 20 minutes. Glad to see it, since this weekend is going to be so hot.

Jed33 wrote:

I have seen some signs though, that have me concerned.

Hey Jed good to see you posting What kind of signs are you speaking of?

Good to see this coming heat wave isn't expected to last for weeks on end, as they sometimes do around these parts. From MRX Long term:

SOME INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE HORIZON HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

Guess the negative NAO Toot mentioned helping us out.

Yeah..Im always wary though...these strong (588 Dm) type of ridges seem to stay around longer than modeled or they did last summer. But that NAO will definately try to keep any eastern ridge in check

Toot wrote:

Jed33 wrote:

I have seen some signs though, that have me concerned.

Hey Jed good to see you posting What kind of signs are you speaking of?

Well, not too scientific here, but the incoming ridge of high pressure this weekend and the associated heat with it have me concerned about it trying to re-establish itself again off and on this summer. Call it just worry or too many late nights here lately, but I have just seen this kind of pattern too many times before to totally dismiss the possibility. I sure hope I'm wrong though

Totally agree with you Jed...dont ever dismiss a 588dm ridge...It just wouldnt be wise. Those boys mean buisness!! They fuel theirself and are stubborn by design. Like you..I feel like I have seen this show before...lol

Yeah, that's why I'm glad we are at least getting some rain before this sub-trop HP moves in (at least some are--from the look of MRX's radar estimates of precip, some have missed out). Doesn't take long to dry out the soil when temps are in the 90s, and no rain falls.

The thing that worries me is that we have had the ridge rear its head all year long even in the Winter time. Now that it is summer time it is even more difficult to get rid of the ridge because it is bigger and it sends all of the big Low Pressure systems to our north. I hope the models are right but I think the ridge will stay longer then expected..

If I remember correctly, earlier this season, the JMA and some other long range models were predicting a cool spring and summer going into a very cold fall and winter. Spring will end up well above normal. Makes me wonder about summer.

WxFreak wrote:If I remember correctly, earlier this season, the JMA and some other long range models were predicting a cool spring and summer going into a very cold fall and winter. Spring will end up well above normal. Makes me wonder about summer.

You don't remember correctly. They nailed the warm spring and summer is appeared to be about average, with cold fall and cold winter.

If we get a bermuda high, we'll have enough moist return off the gulf, plus hurricane possibilities, that we shouldn't get too bad in the drought.

What we have to worry about is high pressure setting up in texas/louisiana. That's when our droughts are bad.

You stated some models were predicting a cooler than average summer. That's what I was remembering. Sorry for the confusion on my part.

The JMA nailed the winter departures 6 months out as well.

And its cool in the summer, and balls cold in the fall. Bastardi was event commenting that he's frightened about what could follow if the fall is as cold as the JMA is forecasting.

Your quote from another forum:

Did anyone see what bastardi posted from te long range JMA? It apparently nailed last year temp wise - and it's forecasting a cold NH summer and very cold NH fall.

Might need to enjoy the summer while we've got it.

Yeah, I'm over 40, and my memory has lapses, but I wasn't too far off my observation.

My forecast is showing a high of 98 on Sunday and 100 on Monday . In May, WTH.

WxFreak wrote:You stated some models were predicting a cooler than average summer. That's what I was remembering. Sorry for the confusion on my part.

The JMA nailed the winter departures 6 months out as well.

And its cool in the summer, and balls cold in the fall. Bastardi was event commenting that he's frightened about what could follow if the fall is as cold as the JMA is forecasting.

Your quote from another forum:

Did anyone see what bastardi posted from te long range JMA? It apparently nailed last year temp wise - and it's forecasting a cold NH summer and very cold NH fall.

Might need to enjoy the summer while we've got it.

Yeah, I'm over 40, and my memory has lapses, but I wasn't too far off my observation.

Yep - it had about half the country above avg and half below for the summer. We seem to be right on the line. Which is about what the CPC is forecasting



Given that CPC has a serious warm bias, that looks like a decent map to me. Looks like they are thinking persistant ridging in the west, with some level of troughiness in the east, and I'd imagine with a pulsing bermuda high pressing against the trough.

I kinda wouldn't be surprised if we see a weird quasi severe season in June.

Here is the JAMSTEC prediction for summer that Mundie was talking about.

I kinda wouldn't be surprised if we see a weird quasi severe season in June.

If I remember correctly, summer of 2009 had a very active and cool June. At the very least, it was a wet and cool summer, and I remember several episodes of intense thunderstorms from June into July.

WxFreak wrote:

I kinda wouldn't be surprised if we see a weird quasi severe season in June.

If I remember correctly, summer of 2009 had a very active and cool June. At the very least, it was a wet and cool summer, and I remember several episodes of intense thunderstorms from June into July.

I don't specifically remember severe that June - but I do remember that we only hit 90 twice in July. July 4th that year, the morning lows were in the mid 50s at BNA. That was just all kinds of crazy.

I remember that summer for one particular reason—had some local flooding events in May and June. I recorded almost 8 inches of rain in May, and nearly 6 in June, and that’s unusual for late spring/ summer in my neck of the woods. One time my road was blocked due to a local creek out of its banks, and it made me late for work that day.

Anyhoo, I wouldn’t mind a repeat of a summer like that one.