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May Severe Weather

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May Severe Weather - Page 2 Empty Re: May Severe Weather

Post by andyhb 2012-03-26, 9:00 pm

Toot wrote:Its the DGEX but its interesting

The setup looks somewhat linear, but we also have to realize that with that powerful upper/mid jet streak (100+ kts at H5) nosing in that the large scale ascent will be very strong ahead of the front, leading to possible discrete supercell development ahead of it, particularly further south across TN and MS/AL. That particular setup looks a bit similar to 1/22 and 1/23, but a bit more broad based.

The 12z GGEM (CMC) looks like a possible Northern/Central Plains deal early on and then another powerful shortwave impulse looks to trigger an event further south by the end of the run, with another one potentially right behind it. (which is eerily similar to how a couple of other big multi day events like this have developed historically).
May Severe Weather - Page 2 B7mk4w

I circled the H5 shortwaves on the 180 hr, to give you an idea of the multi day potential of this run of the CMC.
May Severe Weather - Page 2 2nid0ft


Last edited by andyhb on 2012-03-26, 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-03-26, 9:17 pm

andyhb wrote:
Toot wrote:Its the DGEX but its interesting

The setup looks somewhat linear, but we also have to realize that with that powerful upper/mid jet streak (100+ kts at H5) nosing in that the large scale ascent will be very strong ahead of the front, leading to possible discrete supercell development ahead of it, particularly further south across TN and MS/AL. That particular setup looks a bit similar to 1/22 and 1/23, but a bit more broad based.

The 12z GGEM (CMC) looks like a possible Northern/Central Plains deal early on and then another powerful shortwave impulse looks to trigger an event further south by the end of the run.
things look to be finally getting active as we go into april... usually april into mid may is our peak for the midsouth area... yeah, toot that threat dgex shows, definelty linear look to it.

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Post by andyhb 2012-03-26, 9:41 pm

Quick point, wow I just took a look at some recent outbreaks on the NARR on PSU's E-Wall and if you were to remove that shortwave on the 12z CMC further north (Northern Plains), the way those two shortwaves/vort maxes (The ones located around the Four Corners and the one off the West Coast) are oriented is well, lets just not get into these more precise details at this point considering the model differences and it being 180 hrs out on the CMC, but it rings a big time similarity with the overall synoptic setup prior to...well I'm not even gonna mention it (pretty pointless), although you can take a look if you wish.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2011.html


Last edited by andyhb on 2012-03-26, 9:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Toot 2012-03-26, 9:44 pm

Yeah that ____ 27th is pretty ugly...just hope it dont turn out that way yikes
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-03-26, 9:44 pm

andyhb wrote:Quick point, wow I just took a look at some recent outbreaks on the NARR on PSU's E-Wall and if you were to remove that shortwave on the 12z CMC further north (Northern Plains), the way those two shortwaves/vort maxes (The ones located around the Four Corners and the one off the West Coast) are oriented is well, lets just not get into these more precise details at this point considering the model differences and it being 180 hrs out on the CMC, but it rings a big time similarity with the overall synoptic setup prior to...well I'm not even gonna mention it, although you can take a look if you wish.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2011.html
the palm sunday outbreak of 65 andy?

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Post by andyhb 2012-03-26, 9:45 pm

...note the year I linked...
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-03-26, 9:48 pm

andyhb wrote:...note the year I linked...
o crap, i see it now. yep. something to keep eye out on for sure.

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Post by andyhb 2012-03-26, 9:53 pm

Obviously there is about a 0.001% chance of that coming into fruition, but I noticed the level of similarity there was fairly interesting.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-26, 10:57 pm

Andy just wanted to say thanks for joining us and sharing your thoughts here. Your insight is very much appreciated!

popcorn
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Post by andyhb 2012-03-26, 11:12 pm

rock on
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Post by Vanster67 2012-03-27, 2:12 am

Andy, hey there. Glad to have you aboard. Sorry my greeting is late. I have been sleeping as I have the late shift. Wonderful insight, and information from you. I like the details you go into about possible severe weather. Thanks, from what it looks like April might be pretty impressive hurry . Once again welcome. Smile
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Post by andyhb 2012-03-27, 2:17 am

00z CMC going back to the Euro solution, although the GFS maintains its strong system. Awaiting the 00z Euro's verdict.

Cheers for the welcome guys, much appreciated. Very Happy
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Post by andyhb 2012-03-27, 2:39 am

00z Euro at 144, much closer to the GFS now, in terms of the evolution of the trough:
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Post by Grandpa Nasty 2012-03-27, 5:51 am

Welcome Andy. hope you enjoy the forum as much as the rest of us. I offer no real insight into the weather other than observations but I like to sit back, read and learn. Once again, welcome.
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Post by Vanster67 2012-03-27, 6:12 am

From OHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID STATE
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 AND DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO
THE 30S AND 40S. BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS BOUNDARY
PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD RAPIDLY TODAY AS STRONG SURFACE LOW
PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNUSUALLY WARM AND
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SPRING DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT TO OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY BY LATE IN THE DAY. H5
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT IN AREA OF MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO
INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SUGGESTIVE
OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY HIGHLIGHTED NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.


BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MID STATE BUT STILL
WARM OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. ALL GUIDANCE AGAIN
INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS WELL.
BOUNDARY JUST ABOUT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. AREA WILL DRY OUT ON
SUNDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
STATES AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL NOTE...MARCH 2012 IN NASHVILLE IS CURRENTLY
TIED WITH MARCH 1907 FOR THE WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD. FORECAST
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH INDICATE 2012 MAY EEK OUT A
VICTORY OVER 1907 FOR THE #1 SPOT. OF NOTE...THE RECORD WARMTH OF
MARCH 1907 GAVE WAY TO A MUCH COOLER APRIL 1907...AND EXTENDED
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES SUCH A COOLDOWN MAY BE IN STORE FOR
US AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL 2012. STAY TUNED!

&&
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Post by Adam2014 2012-03-27, 7:16 am

All we needed was that ridge to break down some to get some cold/warm air battling. Welcome Andy, it is people like you and Toot that I really look up to because I aspire to be a meteorologist. I think I have learned a lot from everyone here and I can't wait to learn some from you.
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Post by Adam2014 2012-03-27, 7:34 am

You can really see convection fire on the radar near the cold front on the GFS around 147. If I am correct the EURO is not as strong on the system.
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Post by Homemommy 2012-03-29, 3:18 pm

It's funderin outside right now. It went from being beautiful to gray and cloudy in, like, a second.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-29, 3:19 pm

Funderin. I like the way you talk. smartass

Yep, Knox county gettin a little action right now:

May Severe Weather - Page 2 Kmrx_br1
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Post by Reb 2012-03-29, 3:41 pm

May Severe Weather - Page 2 V2qpfr


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Post by WxFreak 2012-03-29, 6:20 pm

After I got home, heard one rumble of thunder, and had some sprinkles. Was hoping for more. Radar doesn't look too hopeful at the moment. Blount county got clocked earlier.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-29, 6:34 pm

I just got clipped by a small one. One rumble of thunder and a hard enough sprinkle to run me and the kiddos inside.

IS THAT ALL YOU GOT?

I may regret those words come Monday.

popcorn
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Post by Homemommy 2012-03-29, 10:50 pm

Stovepipe wrote:I just got clipped by a small one. One rumble of thunder and a hard enough sprinkle to run me and the kiddos inside.

IS THAT ALL YOU GOT?

I may regret those words come Monday.

popcorn

I have to post this pic now that you said, "Is that all you got"?

May Severe Weather - Page 2 Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRafRyNTUS1pzksFdPklzU6c1Gag-BCtnPiIa_xjnNh7duyZ-JP

I know we're supposed to be all serious here, but I couldn't pass up a chance to post a Lt. Dan pic.
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-03-29, 10:53 pm

Homemommy wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:I just got clipped by a small one. One rumble of thunder and a hard enough sprinkle to run me and the kiddos inside.

IS THAT ALL YOU GOT?

I may regret those words come Monday.

popcorn

I have to post this pic now that you said, "Is that all you got"?

May Severe Weather - Page 2 Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRafRyNTUS1pzksFdPklzU6c1Gag-BCtnPiIa_xjnNh7duyZ-JP

I know we're supposed to be all serious here, but I couldn't pass up a chance to post a Lt. Dan pic.
lol mommy, lol!

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-30, 2:46 pm

More afternoon funderin goodness for east TN.

wash
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