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Toot (6644)
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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 10:11 am

Also sea levels aren't rising, they have started to fall. By about a centimeter. Of course Nasa says it because more rain fell over the continents. So 71% of the earth's surface is covered by oceans and they believe the reason the oceans have fallen 1cm is because of rain over the continents? Really? Come on. That is A LOT of extra rain. You just can't make this stuff up. Whatever you do NASA, make up whatever lame excuse you have to, before you admit we may be gaining back some of the ice.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 10:14 am

You asked where the warming is. The data is there. From the Union of Concerned Scientists of the USA:

It is true that temperature records derived from satellites show either less warming than surface temperature data or even a cooling trend. Recent studies (most notably a study by the National Academy of Sciences published in 2000) found, however, that satellite data needed to be adjusted for some measurement and calibration problems. These adjustments bring surface and satellite records into better agreement, both showing a warming trend. It is important to note that many surface temperature records date back to 1860, while satellite records only date back to 1979. With such a short data record, observed trends can be strongly affected by extreme conditions -- such as the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo which decreased atmospheric temperatures for several years. In addition, satellite and surface data differ in what they record: surface thermometers measure the air temperature at the Earth's surface, while satellite data take temperatures of different slices of the atmosphere. Including records for the upper atmosphere -- where the depletion of the ozone layer has had a cooling effect -- will lower the overall temperature trends observed from satellites.

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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 10:20 am

Stovepipe wrote:I want to play this game too. I'm going to sit back here and claim that college football is fake. The games are all rigged. The outcomes are known before the season even starts. I don't care how many people that are directly involved in it that claim otherwise. You can't prove to me that it's not fake and I can't prove to you that it is, but that don't matter. La la la I can't hear you. It's fake.

That is pretty much what you are doing here with climate science.

No it's like predicting the outcome of a college football game by using a baseless factor and winning for a while. Then you start losing and realize that baseless factor that you thought was so important...isn't.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 10:24 am

Baseless. The IPCC, all it's scientists (including skeptical scientists), all of that research, all of that data, all of those conclusions are baseless. That is hilarious man, I'm sorry but it is.

lmao
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 10:27 am

Oh and that petition that Toot posted? Now that is a hoax. LOL

The petition is a hoax. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists of the USA:

In the spring of 1998, mailboxes of US scientists flooded with packet from the "Global Warming Petition Project," including a reprint of a Wall Street Journal op-ed "Science has spoken: Global Warming Is a Myth," a copy of a faux scientific article claiming that "increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have no deleterious effects upon global climate," a short letter signed by past-president National Academy of Sciences (NAS), Frederick Seitz, and a short petition calling for the rejection of the Kyoto Protocol on the grounds that a reduction in carbon dioxide "would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind."

The sponsor, little-known Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, tried to beguile unsuspecting scientists into believing that this packet had originated from the National Academy of the Sciences, both by referencing Seitz's past involvement with the NAS and with an article formatted to look as if it was a published article in the Academy's Proceedings, which it was not.

The NAS quickly distanced itself from the petition project, issuing a statement saying, "the petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy."

The petition project was a deliberate attempt to mislead scientists and to rally them in an attempt to undermine support for the Kyoto Protocol. The petition was not based on a review of the science of global climate change, nor were its signers experts in the field of climate science. In fact, the only criterion for signing the petition was a bachelor's degree in science. The petition resurfaced in early 2001 in a renewed attempt to undermine international climate treaty negotiations.
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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 10:32 am

Stovepipe wrote:Wait, your beef with funding is that governments are funding scientific research? I thought you were going to claim that money was coming from fringe groups with axes to grind or something. I'm damn proud my government is supporting research on this. The possible ramifications of this are scary as hell. Of all of the pork barrel bullshit government spending, on wars and every freaking thing else, this was 2 billion that was actually well spent. Hell that is a drop in the bucket, I hope the U.S. spends more!

90% certainty that temperatures will rise. That is pretty astounding. That is what the IPCC is saying. There are plenty of working models, let's be clear on that. But being such a complex system, no model perfectly predicts the future. An ensemble can give us a decent idea though. Will you argue that weather models should be thrown out as well since they can't "prove" what is going to happen one week out? Armchair conspiracy theories for the win!

Scientific research isn't really a constitutional item that governments should concern themselves with but that is another debate for another day. Spending billions on research would be generally ok if the research in question was done with an open mind. Unfortunately it isn't. As I've said they work bassackwards and start with the conclusion and form the data around it.

As for working models. Show me a working MGW model that predicted the decline in global temps. Show me a working model that predicted the sea level fall. They all may "work" in your book, but what do you consider "working". The IPCC seems to think hitting global temps within 8 degrees F is working. I say it is not.


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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 10:42 am

snowdog wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:Wait, your beef with funding is that governments are funding scientific research? I thought you were going to claim that money was coming from fringe groups with axes to grind or something. I'm damn proud my government is supporting research on this. The possible ramifications of this are scary as hell. Of all of the pork barrel bullshit government spending, on wars and every freaking thing else, this was 2 billion that was actually well spent. Hell that is a drop in the bucket, I hope the U.S. spends more!

90% certainty that temperatures will rise. That is pretty astounding. That is what the IPCC is saying. There are plenty of working models, let's be clear on that. But being such a complex system, no model perfectly predicts the future. An ensemble can give us a decent idea though. Will you argue that weather models should be thrown out as well since they can't "prove" what is going to happen one week out? Armchair conspiracy theories for the win!

Scientific research isn't really a constitutional item that governments should concern themselves with but that is another debate for another day. Spending billions on research would be generally ok if the research in question was done with an open mind. Unfortunately it isn't. As I've said they work bassackwards and start with the conclusion and form the data around it.

As for working models. Show me a working MGW model that predicted the decline in global temps. Show me a working model that predicted the sea level fall. They all may "work" in your book, but what do you consider "working". The IPCC seems to think hitting global temps within 8 degrees F is working. I say it is not.


It's all in the IPCC report. If you've not read it, I highly suggest doing so. It is a very interesting read and will most certainly answer your questions concerning the modeling.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-8-1.html

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 Yebvd

FAQ 8.1, Figure 1. Global mean near-surface temperatures over the 20th century from observations (black) and as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 different climate models driven by both natural and human-caused factors that influence climate (yellow). The mean of all these runs is also shown (thick red line). Temperature anomalies are shown relative to the 1901 to 1950 mean. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic eruptions. (Figure adapted from Chapter 9, Figure 9.5. Refer to corresponding caption for further details.)

And this should answer your questions concerning sea level rise as described by the IPCC report:

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futureslc.html

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 14in9f4
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Post by Math/Met 2012-03-27, 12:04 pm

I try to stay away from these arguments, but I’ll just give my brief thoughts.

I am a believer in Global Warming in the sense that the Earth has experienced a period of rising temperatures. That trend seems to have decreased over the past decade, but it doesn’t really take away from the fact that some warming has occurred. There is little doubt that humans have contributed to that warming at least to some degree.

However, I do think other natural factors are at play that make the manmade part of the warming seem more significant than it really is. I don’t trust the climate models very much at all. There are just too many unknown feedbacks (positive and negative). While some people think Richard Lindzen is crazy, I think he makes some valid points regarding some factors that could naturally decrease the amount of warming we experience. Even if he has an agenda as some claim, you still have to at least consider the theories and work from a guy who is probably the smartest person in the entire field. If some of his research is correct, then some of the positive feedbacks in the models may actually be negative feedbacks. That could greatly impact the accuracy of the climate models in the long term. It will be interesting to see who is right.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 12:56 pm

Math/Met wrote:I try to stay away from these arguments, but I’ll just give my brief thoughts.

I am a believer in Global Warming in the sense that the Earth has experienced a period of rising temperatures. That trend seems to have decreased over the past decade, but it doesn’t really take away from the fact that some warming has occurred. There is little doubt that humans have contributed to that warming at least to some degree.

However, I do think other natural factors are at play that make the manmade part of the warming seem more significant than it really is. I don’t trust the climate models very much at all. There are just too many unknown feedbacks (positive and negative). While some people think Richard Lindzen is crazy, I think he makes some valid points regarding some factors that could naturally decrease the amount of warming we experience. Even if he has an agenda as some claim, you still have to at least consider the theories and work from a guy who is probably the smartest person in the entire field. If some of his research is correct, then some of the positive feedbacks in the models may actually be negative feedbacks. That could greatly impact the accuracy of the climate models in the long term. It will be interesting to see who is right.

Interesting to have someone that has actually studied atmospheric science to weigh in. Thanks Math/Met.

I'm going to do some reading on Lindzen.

study
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Post by Math/Met 2012-03-27, 1:24 pm

Stovepipe wrote:

Interesting to have someone that has actually studied atmospheric science to weigh in. Thanks Math/Met.

I'm going to do some reading on Lindzen.

study

I kind of take the middle of the road approach to AGW. In my opinion, there is too much evidence to completely deny it. However, I just have a really hard time believing it is going to be as severe as some scientists believe. It will all depend on the feedbacks. Our atmosphere has a lot of built in ways to balance itself, which is why I believe some of those feedbacks are going to be negative instead of positive.

This is all just my opinion, and I could be completely wrong. I am certainly not an expert on climate, so I have considered taking a “Climate Change” class in the near future to learn more about the science behind it. It is an interesting subject for sure.

Regarding Lindzen, they basically called him the greatest atmospheric scientist on the planet when he helped write for the IPCC report. Now, some are trying to claim that he has an agenda since he is starting to speak out against the magnitude of global warming that is predicted. My understanding is, he doesn’t deny manmade global warming, he just has theories and has done some research that suggest that it may not be as bad as is being projected. Who knows if he is right, but I guess we will find out over the next few decades.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 1:36 pm

See, this is a reasonable line of discussion. The magnitude of warming and whether or not the earth will balance things out on it's own are perfectly useful debates to be having. We need people like Lindzen even though he only represents about 2% of the current thinking in the field. All angles of this issue need to be investigated going forward and I hope these guys continue to get all of the funding they need.

Anyone who has done any real reading on this subject beyond a set of blog talking points would just about have to acknowledge that the basic principals of global warming are real. It's a complex subject, but to call the whole thing a scam or hoax and write it all off is just foolish.
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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 1:46 pm

Stovepipe wrote:It's a complex subject, but to call the whole thing a scam or hoax and write it all off is just foolish.

Obviously the globe cools and warms on its' own. What I dismiss is those that try to push a manmade global warming agenda (evil Co2) and try and pawn it off as provable science when it is not. Also you have to look as to who is benefiting from this agenda. Co2 continues to rise yet global temps continue to fall. Sea levels are falling as well. Positive feedback isn't as positive as once thought nor has it been proven. There are many holes to the theory and right now as we are 10 to 15 years down the manmade global warming road we look back and realize a lot of the the original assumptions may not (are not) be true.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 1:58 pm

snowdog wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:It's a complex subject, but to call the whole thing a scam or hoax and write it all off is just foolish.

Obviously the globe cools and warms on its' own. What I dismiss is those that try to push a manmade global warming agenda (evil Co2) and try and pawn it off as provable science when it is not. Also you have to look as to who is benefiting from this agenda. Co2 continues to rise yet global temps continue to fall. Sea levels are falling as well. Positive feedback isn't as positive as once thought nor has it been proven. There are many holes to the theory and right now as we are 10 to 15 years down the manmade global warming road we look back and realize a lot of the the original assumptions may not (are not) be true.

Citation needed.

Unless you get very creative with your cherry picking, temps are rising:

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 4scrja

Let's go back a few thousand years just for good measure:

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 69qg5v

Yep. And sea level falling?

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 Mmzfxs

Don't think so. Sea level isn't uniform across the earth and doesn't change in a uniform fashion. Just because an area near the Arctic falls a bit for a few years doesn't mean the global sea level has.

Do you want to talk about science or do you want to talk about agendas?
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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 2:30 pm

Why do all your graphs you have posted stop at 2000 or 2005? It is 2012.

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 Gw10

You can look up the Global Sea decline on Nasa's site.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 2:37 pm

So manmade global warming is a hoax because we've had a two year period of stabilized heating? It's called climate change not weather change. Try again.
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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 2:46 pm

As for the positive feedback. Why is it that in most instances, the more water vapor there is the lower the temperature? Wouldn't MGW science tell us that the more Co2 there is the more we heat up? The more we heat up the more water evaporates. The more water that evaporates the more water vapor there is. Which then amplifies the heating and all hell breaks loose. Taken from this article.

Article

Complete Study

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 Gw210

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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 2:53 pm

Stovepipe wrote:So manmade global warming is a hoax because we've had a two year period of stabilized heating? It's called climate change not weather change. Try again.

2 years? You may want to check the graph again. So 15 years is weather change? Come on. 15 years of increasing Co2 and I ask you...where's the beef? Where is this OHHHH MYYYY GOD alarmism warm-up that Hansen/Al Gore type's pushed for years ago? Declining global temps and sea levels, as Bastardi says, is one hell of a way to run some global warming.

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 2:58 pm

snowdog wrote:As for the positive feedback. Why is it that in most instances, the more water vapor there is the lower the temperature? Wouldn't MGW science tell us that the more Co2 there is the more we heat up? The more we heat up the more water evaporates. The more water that evaporates the more water vapor there is. Which then amplifies the heating and all hell breaks loose. Taken from this article.

Article

Complete Study

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 Gw210

The "runaway greenhouse effect" is acknowledged in the IPCC report, again I urge you to read that if you haven't.

Positive feedbacks do not have to lead to a runaway effect, as the gain is not always sufficient. Radiation from a planet increasing in proportion to the fourth power of temperature, in accordance with the Stefan-Boltzmann law, provides a negative feedback; so the positive feedback effect has to be very strong to cause a runaway effect (see gain). An increase in temperature from greenhouse gases leading to increased water vapor which is a greenhouse gas causing further warming is a positive feedback. This is not a runaway effect on Earth.[7] Positive feedback effects are common and always exist (e.g. ice-albedo feedback) while runaway effects are much rarer and cannot be operating at all times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_greenhouse_effect

Interesting to talk about, but not the smoking gun I was hoping to see from you.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 3:11 pm

snowdog wrote:
Stovepipe wrote:So manmade global warming is a hoax because we've had a two year period of stabilized heating? It's called climate change not weather change. Try again.

2 years? You may want to check the graph again. So 15 years is weather change? Come on. 15 years of increasing Co2 and I ask you...where's the beef? Where is this OHHHH MYYYY GOD alarmism warm-up that Hansen/Al Gore type's pushed for years ago? Declining global temps and sea levels, as Bastardi says, is one hell of a way to run some global warming.

LMFAO!

Sorry I misread your chart, I was too busy looking at a more meaningful dataset. See, your chart conveniently starts at 1997 which was a record high, the next record high that blew that one away? 1998, also the year of the strongest el nino of the century. So using that noisy data year as the starting point of your graph is one hell of a cherry pick and does not make for any sort of useful statistical analysis. It's the type of thing someone would use if they had an agenda. Do you have an agenda?

Better chart:

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 4scrja

Nice cherry pick though.

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 1zf7xw0
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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 3:14 pm

I didn't know I was supposed to produce a "smoking gun". Sorry to disappoint. So is the AGW changing their tune? Have they turned their back on the extremist like Gore and gone to a more moderate warming? Sounds to me like the IPCC is making this up as they go and this is sounding more and more like it isn't the slam dunk you portray it to be.

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Post by snowdog 2012-03-27, 3:21 pm

No cherry picking necessary. One would expect with increasing Co2 that over 15 years there would be...you know...some decent warming. You can take the graph back as far as you like. It warms up until about 2004/2005 then starts a downward trend. We are continuing that downward trend and long range forecast models expect it to continue through the rest of the year and into next.

If we are cooling with Co2 levels continuing to rise. How do we know Co2 impacted heating during the warm-up?

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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 3:24 pm

snowdog wrote:I didn't know I was supposed to produce a "smoking gun". Sorry to disappoint. So is the AGW changing their tune? Have they turned their back on the extremist like Gore and gone to a more moderate warming? Sounds to me like the IPCC is making this up as they go and this is sounding more and more like it isn't the slam dunk you portray it to be.

No, you don't have to produce a smoking gun. You can make all the wild claims you want and stand up against the mountains of data and research on the subject. You can call it a hoax and scam all day long. I guess we are quite different though. If I were in that position I'd feel obligated to post something that clearly made my point. So far in this thread I've seen a fake petition, a list of blog talking points, a cherry picked chart, and a "runaway greenhouse effect" study that still has me scratching my head on how it proves your point. But go on, by all means.

Weather-Manmade Global Warming Link Builds, Study Says  - Page 2 Vwwv1j


Last edited by Stovepipe on 2012-03-27, 3:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Toot 2012-03-27, 3:28 pm

Lol at this thread... I would like for someone to show me some effects of agw since it has been happening for decades. I mean surely some seals or something has been affected by this terrible tragedy bleh
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 3:35 pm

snowdog wrote:No cherry picking necessary. One would expect with increasing Co2 that over 15 years there would be...you know...some decent warming. You can take the graph back as far as you like. It warms up until about 2004/2005 then starts a downward trend. We are continuing that downward trend and long range forecast models expect it to continue through the rest of the year and into next.

If we are cooling with Co2 levels continuing to rise. How do we know Co2 impacted heating during the warm-up?

This downward trend you speak of is a very weak argument at best and pretty much deals with weather patterns and not climate patterns.

http://en.mercopress.com/2011/11/29/global-temperature-in-2011-the-tenth-highest-on-record-says-wmo

These are some of the highlights of the provisional annual World Meteorological Organization on the status of the global climate, which gives a global temperature assessment and a snapshot of weather and climate events around the world in 2011. It was released Tuesday at the international climate conference in Durban, South Africa.

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans,” he said.

The WMO provisional statement estimated the global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2011 (January–October) at 0.41°C ± 0.11°C (0.74°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961–1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F, according to the provisional statement. This is the tenth equal warmest year since the start of records in 1850.

The 2002-2011 period equals 2001-2010 as the warmest decade on record, 0.46°C above the long-term average.

Global climate in 2011 was heavily influenced by the strong La Niña event which developed in the tropical Pacific in the second half of 2010 and continued until May 2011. It was one of the strongest of the last 60 years and was closely associated with the drought in east Africa, islands in the central equatorial Pacific and the southern United States, and flooding in southern Africa, eastern Australia and southern Asia.

Strong La Niña years are typically 0.10 to 0.15°C cooler than the years preceding and following them. 2011’s global temperatures followed this pattern, being lower than those of 2010, but were still considerably warmer than the most recent moderate to strong La Niña years, 2008 (+0.36°C), 2000 (+0.27°C) and 1989 (+0.12°C). Weak La Niña conditions have redeveloped in recent weeks but have not yet approached the intensity of those in late 2010 and early 2011.

Surface air temperatures were above the long-term average in 2011 over most land areas of the world. The largest departures from average were over Russia, especially in northern Russia where January-October temperatures were about 4°C above average in places.

The seasonal Arctic sea ice minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million square kilometres. This was 35% below the 1979-2000 average and only slightly more than the record low set in 2007. Unlike the 2007 season, both the Northwest and Northeast Passages were ice-free for periods during the 2011 summer. Sea ice volume was even further below average and was estimated at a new record low of 4200 cubic kilometres, surpassing the record of 4580 cubic kilometres set in 2010.

The above-average temperatures in most northern polar regions coincided with the second-lowest Arctic sea ice minimum extent and the lowest sea ice volume on record.

If you don't think we are in a climate warming pattern then I don't really know what to tell you. You probably think the sky is orange too and I'm not going to argue that either because it's silly.
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-03-27, 3:38 pm

Toot wrote:Lol at this thread... I would like for someone to show me some effects of agw since it has been happening for decades. I mean surely some seals or something has been affected by this terrible tragedy bleh

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