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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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cliftown04
Connie
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windstorm
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Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: Summer 2012 WX Discussion

Post by Toot 2012-07-03, 8:21 am

Orographic storms should fire in and around the mountains today..then drift mostly southward.
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Post by windstorm 2012-07-03, 11:22 am

Yesterday we only got to 97. ( Only 97) ? But anyway we did get a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday. Check out the new look at Noaa. Just type in your zip or city and see how you like it.
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Post by VFL 2012-07-03, 11:52 am

Well I never got any rain. Had a storm tracking toward my area last night and it stalled about 3 miles north of me and put out a out flow that went through me and reformed about 3-4 miles south in Ft.City. Knox had .75" of rain and west Knox got poured on for 2 hours but I again was left high and dry.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-03, 12:57 pm

VFL wrote:Well I never got any rain. Had a storm tracking toward my area last night and it stalled about 3 miles north of me and put out a out flow that went through me and reformed about 3-4 miles south in Ft.City. Knox had .75" of rain and west Knox got poured on for 2 hours but I again was left high and dry.

I hate it when that happens! I didn't get rain yesterday, either. Thankful for the .65" I had the day before.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-03, 2:05 pm

Storms starting to fire. Looks like an active evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC129-031900-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0190.120703T1754Z-120703T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR RUGBY AND DEER LODGE...AND WERE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WARTBURG...SUNBRIGHT...PETROS...OAKDALE...AND PINE ORCHARD
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-03, 2:06 pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ONEIDA...
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ONEIDA AROUND 140 PM EDT.
HUNTSVILLE AROUND 210 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE NORMA AND SLICK ROCK.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-03, 5:26 pm

Looks like a gust front has killed much of the convection over the area, except for areas near Blount County and points south. O well, what else is new. Everyone HAVE A HAPPY 4th!
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-03, 8:27 pm

Looks like MRX also says the door has been shut for additional convection tonight.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED...AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOP IS EXPECTED WITH THE LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISMS OVERNIGHT. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTED TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT LOW TEMPS SHOULD NOT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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Post by Vanster67 2012-07-04, 8:02 am

windstorm wrote:Yesterday we only got to 97. ( Only 97) ? But anyway we did get a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday. Check out the new look at Noaa. Just type in your zip or city and see how you like it.
Like the New Look at Noaa. I still get confused a tad here and there, but I am sure that will pass as I get used to it. Very Happy
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Post by VFL 2012-07-04, 10:43 am

WxFreak wrote:Looks like a gust front has killed much of the convection over the area, except for areas near Blount County and points south. O well, what else is new. Everyone HAVE A HAPPY 4th!

Yes you're right, that storm cluster was moving from Scott, Morgan and Anderson Co and looked to hold together. When it got to Knox Co it laid down a OFB that cleared my area and a piece of energy broke off and darted south to Blount Co. This is wearing me out not getting any rain, I have missed out on every opportunity for rain while some have gotten rain every day. Oh well. cliffdive
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-04, 1:01 pm

looking over the 12zgfs minute ago... looks like the ridge keeps on moving back further west which would allow for us to get into more pop up scattered afternoon showers and possible even some mcs type stuff... lets hope the gfs isight in the mid to long range... the euro has been not as friendly to us... it has the ridge trying to hold but not as strong. curious to see what the 12z euro has today for us in the longer range... hopefully it also has some relief for us.

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Post by Toot 2012-07-04, 1:54 pm

WTF is wrong with the ewall site? It has not updated since yesterday sometime. mad
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-04, 1:55 pm

Toot wrote:WTF is wrong with the ewall site? It has not updated since yesterday sometime. mad
good question toot, maybe they took off for the fourth. lol!

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Post by Toot 2012-07-04, 2:07 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:good question toot, maybe they took off for the fourth. lol!

Lol..evidently Mad That site makes everything much easier...everything is right there and very simple!! It dont take much of a persons time to get a feel for what is happening with the wx the next 10 days and you dont have to go to 10 different sites to look at 10 different models and their output. gaah
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Post by windstorm 2012-07-04, 3:19 pm

Lot of thunder today but no rain. But it did cool us down from the 90's to upper 70's. Still waiting on the rain.
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Post by Toot 2012-07-04, 3:43 pm

In a weeks time we should be solidly back in a NW flow pattern... as nearly all guidance has come into agreement on that

Here is a look at temp trends...ahhh so lovely and refreshing.

These ensemble temp anomalies are valid 6 days from now
Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 10 553104_280562062051553_58589332_n


Last edited by Toot on 2012-07-04, 4:19 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-04, 4:02 pm

Per MRX (tomorrow could be interesting):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A HOT...HUMID...AND STAGNANT AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADARS REVEALING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY TO POTENTIALLY HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS MCS WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN PEAK HEATING COULD CREATE A POTENTIALLY HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
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Post by Toot 2012-07-04, 4:30 pm

Ya..I see what they're talking about

Instability is definately there tomorrow

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 10 Cape_27

The funny thing is the flow will be from the NE instead of our normal MCS situation that's from the NW..you can clearly see the ring of fire around the upper level high in that CAPE image above
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-04, 5:22 pm

I think the northeast flow is already evident on tonight's radar. Storms in northeast TN are slowly propagating back toward the southwest this evening.
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-04, 7:27 pm

Just had my fireworks for the 4th. Small storm moving over my house with a pretty good downpour. I was out on the porch when a bolt of lightning hit right across the street. Jumped clean outta my chair. whew.... affraid


Last edited by WxFreak on 2012-07-04, 7:47 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Fixing my spelling after running for my life.)
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Post by Toot 2012-07-04, 7:35 pm

WxFreak wrote:Just had my fireworks for the 4th. Small storm moving over my house with a pretty good downpour. I was out on the porch when a bolt of lightnight hit right across the street. Jumped clean outta my chair. whew.... affraid

Do I need to ask? Or is that just a typo? lol!
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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-04, 7:45 pm

Toot wrote:
WxFreak wrote:Just had my fireworks for the 4th. Small storm moving over my house with a pretty good downpour. I was out on the porch when a bolt of lightnight hit right across the street. Jumped clean outta my chair. whew.... affraid

Do I need to ask? Or is that just a typo? lol!

LOL..guess my hands were still shakin'. Quite a bolt from the blue...literally. The sun was out for most of the downpour. The lightning hit so close, there was NO delay between the bolt and the LOUD explosion of thunder.

Had a good cluster of storms move in from the north, and put down almost a half inch of rain in a very short time. Very welcome. Now I won't have to be on fire watch tonight when all the fireworks start. rock on
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Post by Toot 2012-07-04, 10:50 pm

Here is the current watch sitiuation.
Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 10 15cdmci

Are those people in a TOR watch or a SVR watch or BOTH? wow

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Post by snowdog 2012-07-05, 12:08 am

I see the Euro has the MJO back in phase 2 for much of the month. We shall see and like Toot said earlier there isn't a lot of reliability on the MJO during summer. But hey it is better than nothing and it looks like the heat is going to relax as we get into July.

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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-05, 8:56 am

From MRX morning AFD:

THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /WITH CAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE BTWN 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AOA -6C TO -8C/. ATTM...A COUPLE OF MCS FEATURES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ARE GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. SHOULD THIS COMPLEX /OR SOME OF ITS OUTFLOW/ APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED ABOVE.

Mother Nature may have additional fireworks planned, even though the 4th has come and gone.
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