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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 11:34 am

Update from MRX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HOT...HUMID...AND STAGNANT AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A MODERATELY TO POTENTIALLY HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER OHIO THIS MORNING...AND THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCAL AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE. THUS...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 11:42 am

From Louisville, KY NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2012

Updated the forecast this morning to increase shower and
thunderstorm chances significantly along and east of I-65 for this afternoon and evening. Have been looking all morning for a trigger for afternoon convection. The trigger in question has appeared in the form of an outflow boundary sinking southwestward from a decaying convective complex over central Ohio. Moisture is pooling nicely ahead of this feature, evident on latest surface obs SPC mesoanalysis.

This outflow boundry drifting southwestward out of Ohio will be the same trigger that brings us our possible severe weather later. Once the storms develop, they will head southward toward our "highly unstable" environment. Could be some intense storms, so heads up everyone.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 11:45 am

And one final AFD from JKL:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

MCS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND MCV WHICH WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING...SBCAPE WILL SURGE TO AT LEAST 4000 J/KG AN POTENTIALLY HIGHER. WITH THE MCV DROPPING SOUTH DURING THE PEAK HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND RUC.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 3:03 pm

Storm clusters have fired up as expected in KY and VA. They are heading south toward east TN. Numerous severe t-storm warnings in KY and VA.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 3:14 pm

From SPC:

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SWD INTO VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER ERN KY. ALSO... NEWER STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG WESTERN SIDE OF WATCH AS ENTIRE COMPLEX MOVES S/SWD. AS STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SEVERE THREAT IN WRN PTN WATCH MAY SHIFT MORE TO LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS STILL MORE THE THREAT IN THE CNTRL/ERN PTN OF THE WATCH. NEW WW MAY BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SW OF WW 469 ACROSS PTNS MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SCNTRL KY.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 3:50 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

This watch basically covers all of East TN, and part of mid TN from around Cookeville eastward.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 5:04 pm

Squeeze play going on in East TN. Lines of storms converging in the central valley--coming southwest from VA, and south from KY.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-05, 5:47 pm

Gust front precedes the storms. Very high winds, then the heavy rain hits afterwards.
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Post by VFL on 2012-07-05, 7:26 pm

Was at Ruggles Ferry GC when the OFB came through and it was crazy. 50-60 mph winds with gusts 60+. Saw a tree across Ruggles Ferry Rd that was huge and had to turn around. Have got 1/2 inch of rain so far and it looks to continue for a couple hours.
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Post by Math/Met on 2012-07-05, 7:50 pm

The storms weren’t anything special at my house, but I have picked up about 1inch of rain so I can’t complain.

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Post by Toot on 2012-07-05, 8:12 pm

Just got my power back on after a couple of hours without it. Several trees down across Jefferson and Hamblen counties. My drive home from work was very interesting to say the least yikes

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Post by VFL on 2012-07-05, 8:18 pm

cheers
Math/Met wrote:The storms weren’t anything special at my house, but I have picked up about 1inch of rain so I can’t complain.
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Post by snowdog on 2012-07-05, 8:38 pm

Storms are forming just to the south of my house here in east Nashville. Soooooo CLOSE....yet sooo far away. At least it cooled things down a bit.

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Post by Toot on 2012-07-05, 9:11 pm

After a scorcher of a day there is a nice cold pool at the surface here in Eastern TN due to the t-storm complex that rolled through

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 11 523916_281066792001080_1004172604_n

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Post by Toot on 2012-07-05, 9:15 pm

That graphic is a little old and the pool of colder air has traveled west and south a bit

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Post by Toot on 2012-07-05, 10:05 pm

A look at the upcoming pattern change via the Euro

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 11 Rm5tdy

That will be a fun pals

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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-06, 8:15 am

Checking in from work. Still no electricity where I live this morning. Powerlines still in the road, and poles snapped from trees falling on them. They haven't even started working on my road because of all the damage in Sevier County. Downtown Sevierville was hit pretty hard with a roof being blown off of a business, and numerous power poles broken/snapped.
One bright spot--got an inch of rain. But guess I will have to stay at a friends house if I don't have power tonight. Luckily, didn't have much in fridge because haven't made store run this week yet. What's in there will have to be thrown out.
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Post by VFL on 2012-07-06, 9:26 am

Toot wrote:A look at the upcoming pattern change via the Euro

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 11 Rm5tdy

That will be a fun pals

I'm not much on maps but besides the NW flow what else is that showing?
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Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-07-06, 9:49 am

VFL wrote:
Toot wrote:A look at the upcoming pattern change via the Euro

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 11 Rm5tdy

That will be a fun pals

I'm not much on maps but besides the NW flow what else is that showing?
its clearly showing also the heat ridge migrating way west... thank god... which translates more rain chances n cooler temps for us in the eastern part of the country

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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-06, 9:55 am

I see a weak northwest flow, but it also appears the Gulf of Mexico is open for business with our hot ridge displaced much further west. Looks as if we are on the western edge of a classic Bermuda High, which would also open the door for any tropical systems that happen to form.
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Post by WxFreak on 2012-07-06, 11:25 am

Wow. If the predicted precipitation amounts from the HPC verify for next week, we are looking at a potential drought breaker for at least East Tennessee (since we are just now entering a moderate drought), and a huge help for those in the rest of the state. Front looks to stall just to our south, and we'll get repeating rounds of storms. So good to see.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 11 95e12p48iwbg_fill
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Post by windstorm on 2012-07-06, 11:41 am

bounce We had high winds of 60+ over 25,000 without power yesterday. Where i live there were, which is near the lake boat over turn and had to get two out of the water and give CPR. They were taken to the hospital. Still at about 10:30 this morning there were 13,500 still without power. We were lucky, the lights went on and off for a minute then came back on. This wind came out of no where. I had just went out on the porch and then went back in and about 4 to 5 minutes later a loud roar. I first thought it was a tornado. Many trees down all over the Chattanooga area. Not sure what the wind speed was recorded at the Airport. Glad it was not at night, I would have had a heart attack. All of that and still no rain.
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Post by windstorm on 2012-07-06, 12:20 pm

Update on the high winds that turn a boat over near my house. There were 12 people in the boat. They said just now at noon two have died . The dock is only 3 tenths of a mile from my house. I go by it nearly every day. Pray for the family that lost this small child.
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Post by Connie on 2012-07-06, 2:38 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/06/us/tennessee-park-storm/index.html
My guest (Wears Valley, TN - on Cove Mountain about 2300' elevation) wrote this about 6:30 p.m. last night: "Have you ever been in the middle of a rain cloud?? I mean smack dab inside one?? It is storming here on Cove Mountain where Eagles View Cabin is and we are totally engulfed by the clouds. No power. Eerie but AWESOME"

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Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-07-06, 3:17 pm

outflow boundary forming northeast of me about 60 miles or so...here is hoping we can get some rain.

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