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Summer 2012 WX Discussion

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Post by Vanster67 2012-07-20, 4:02 am

Pretty major rain here. It has been raining here solid for almost 4 hours, and it looks to continue for awhile. Good stuff!! The lightning from earlier tonight was fantastic!!! Alot of good boomers!! Hope to see some more storms later today. Will it all be to the south of us??
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Post by VFL 2012-07-20, 3:19 pm

Picked up 1.5" last night, thank you very much!!!!!!
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Post by Toot 2012-07-20, 4:49 pm

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 16 552726_348166838592940_118164960_n
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Post by Toot 2012-07-21, 9:38 am

im camping...and will have no internet access. everone have a good wknd
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Post by windstorm 2012-07-21, 11:20 am

Over the last 2 weeks i have received around 9 to 10 inches of rainfall. My well has been running over the top. The guy next to me as had to pump water out of his swimming pool last few days. But at the airport they say we are still below normal. They may be, but north of the Tennessee River we are not. Most always rains more north of the airport. Last night we received 1.50 inches. Today we have gotten .70 and still raining. My garden looks like a forest. Not complaining just saying what a turn around in the last two weeks. Weather channel yesterday showed the next 10 days in the south little or no rain except maybe a pop up storm. We will see. yak
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-21, 8:36 pm

next week could get really sweltry as the ridge builds in over the mid miss. valley... west tn will flirt with the century mark once again... but whats after that is really sweet if it holds... cold front looks to push in by next weekend with a shot of rain followed by some of the cooler air in quite a while... fact parts of the volunteer state may see lows mid 50s... this is just right around truncation... we see if thhis holds.

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Post by Adam2014 2012-07-22, 8:59 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:next week could get really sweltry as the ridge builds in over the mid miss. valley... west tn will flirt with the century mark once again... but whats after that is really sweet if it holds... cold front looks to push in by next weekend with a shot of rain followed by some of the cooler air in quite a while... fact parts of the volunteer state may see lows mid 50s... this is just right around truncation... we see if thhis holds.
We could have some severe weather as well, with higher shear and instability.
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-22, 9:54 am

Adam2014 wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:next week could get really sweltry as the ridge builds in over the mid miss. valley... west tn will flirt with the century mark once again... but whats after that is really sweet if it holds... cold front looks to push in by next weekend with a shot of rain followed by some of the cooler air in quite a while... fact parts of the volunteer state may see lows mid 50s... this is just right around truncation... we see if thhis holds.
We could have some severe weather as well, with higher shear and instability.
great point adam... later this week... the ridge looks to be shifting pretty west allowing nw flow...storms will tend to form over top edge of ridge n ride down from the nw direction... i am agreeing with cosgrove... fairly potent mcs which could even be classified as a derecho type system late in the week setting up east.

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Post by Toot 2012-07-23, 8:00 pm

From my FB blog

Ive tried to hone in on the track of a strong storm complex that will take place tomorrow evening. IMO the areas that are shaded will have a higher risk of of severe weather tomorrow. The main threat with this will be very high wind speeds that will likely damage some structures tomorrow as the strong storm complex begins to bow out and race southeastward. If you live in or close to the highlighted areas you will need to pay close attention to your weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.
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Post by Toot 2012-07-24, 8:16 am

SPC also put NE TN under the gun

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 16 Day1probotlk_1200_wind

Looks like a possible Derecho today as Severe Thunderstorm watches are already active upstream with the complex that will move through southern Appalachian region this evening around 5pm. Everybody in NE TN stay safe this evening..its probably going to get pretty rocky
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Post by Math/Met 2012-07-24, 12:54 pm

From JKL

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MCS IN SOUTHERN OHIO HAS TAKEN MORE OF A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND NOW IS
LOOKING LIKE IT MAY TAKE AIM ON MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN PRODUCING PRETTY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS IT HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD



UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES IS FROM AROUND 1 PM IN THE NORTH TO 5 PM IN THE SOUTH
(NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER). STILL RECEIVING LOTS OF REPORTS OF
DAMAGE TO THE NORTH...SO THINGS COULD GET VERY INTERESTING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH AREAS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE.

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Post by Toot 2012-07-24, 4:10 pm

Quick synopsis of the current wx situation. Although the main show looks to only effect NE TN..a new MCS could be in the making along an outflow boundary extending back into eastern and central KY..this complex will have a pretty unstable airmass to work with and would affect a bigger part of middle and eastern TN this evening and tonight. Will be interesting to see it unfold
Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 16 2hwn3pl
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Post by Dyersburg Weather 2012-07-24, 5:35 pm

I think I am going to jump in the truck and head east just so I can see it rain more than a tenth of an inch at one time. lol!
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-24, 6:51 pm

Toot wrote:Quick synopsis of the current wx situation. Although the main show looks to only effect NE TN..a new MCS could be in the making along an outflow boundary extending back into eastern and central KY..this complex will have a pretty unstable airmass to work with and would affect a bigger part of middle and eastern TN this evening and tonight. Will be interesting to see it unfold
i will be glad when this freaking ridge goes far enough west or breakdown completely so we can get in on the action mad

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Post by Toot 2012-07-24, 7:09 pm

Looks like yall will get your wish this weekend as the ridge retrogrades westward.

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 16 Gfs_z500_uv_noram_25

Man...talk about a hostile pattern for tropical development. yikes
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-07-24, 9:44 pm

Toot wrote:Looks like yall will get your wish this weekend as the ridge retrogrades westward.



Man...talk about a hostile pattern for tropical development. yikes
yeah, i have my eyes on that also... models are trying to develop a stronger front just beyond truncation... hopefully we start to see a pattern change were fronts make it through more often, along with more rain.

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Post by Math/Met 2012-07-24, 11:17 pm

I just saw on the local news that the Tri-Cities Airport has already broken the monthly rainfall record for July (10.26 inches). Pretty amazing considering how dry everything was just a few weeks ago.

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Post by Math/Met 2012-07-25, 2:45 pm

Here is some additional information from MRX. TRI had more heavy rain overnight.

Tri-Cities airport currently sits at 12.08 inches of precipitation for the month of July. Not only does this break the old monthly record but this also breaks the all time wettest month on record. The previous record was August 2003 with 11.34 inches.

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Post by Toot 2012-07-25, 5:27 pm

That is pretty amazing M/M considering how dry they were just a few weeks ago.
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Post by Toot 2012-07-25, 5:38 pm

LOL! After working outdoors today..I could only think of one thing

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Post by Toot 2012-07-25, 5:46 pm

Pretty early SVR outbreak expected to ramp up tomorrow

SPC went Moderate today
Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 16 Day2probotlk_1730_any

Here's what I came up with on my blog last sunday

An unseasonably strong low pressure system is set to traverse the upper eastern United States later in the week. This system will likely cause organized severe weather in the form of Tornados..Hail and Damaging winds. Areas in the shaded area will need to keep an eye on their local weather this week

Summer 2012 WX Discussion - Page 16 255206_288526141255145_570197980_n
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Nice to have the SPC coming on board...Be interesting to see such a rare event for this time of year
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Post by Vanster67 2012-07-26, 8:15 am

Good call there Toot! Lined up pretty good with your thoughts. I would like a rumble or two of thunder here!
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Post by Stovepipe 2012-07-26, 10:38 am

We're planning to drag the camper to Norris for the weekend. I'd like to setup Friday evening but would rather not do it in pouring rain (once setup I don't care). The WRF doesn't show this being too big of a deal. MRX says 60% chance for the day. What do you guys think?
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Post by jmundie 2012-07-26, 2:42 pm

I started noticing on the GFS about a week ago that it keeps wanting to beat down the ridge and bring cold fronts every couple days down from canada.

Looks like we'll have a nice fall pattern setting up in late august if this continues. I'll take it.

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Post by WxFreak 2012-07-26, 3:00 pm

Stovepipe wrote:We're planning to drag the camper to Norris for the weekend. I'd like to setup Friday evening but would rather not do it in pouring rain (once setup I don't care). The WRF doesn't show this being too big of a deal. MRX says 60% chance for the day. What do you guys think?

I don't know if this helps any, but this is a quote from SPC for tomorrow's severe wx outlook:

OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON D1. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY FIELD WILL LIKELY BE FRACTURED...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS BREEDS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 25-45 KT WLYS AT 500 MB.

THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR TSTM INITIATION ON FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED ACROSS LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO OVERTURNING ON D1. SUSPECT WITH STRONG HEATING...NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE MAY PROVE CLOSER TO REALITY. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

Sounds like storms will be less organized tomorrow, but with any clusters that do develop severe wx is a possibility. It's almost a crapshoot if any one area will see strong storms. I'm sure some will, but some areas may escape significant rain altogether.
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