february severe

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 9:17 am

looking like parts of the midsouth tennessee valleys may be dealing with our first severe threat for this month late this week into the weekend...warm front moves north of us, with strong surface lp ridiing the boundary, with ample low level moisture return with it...i get into more specifics as we draw closer to this event. wash

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 9:21 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:looking like parts of the midsouth tennessee valleys may be dealing with our first severe threat for this month late this week into the weekend...warm front moves north of us, with strong surface lp ridiing the boundary, with ample low level moisture return with it...i get into more specifics as we draw closer to this event.

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 9:33 am

l know the big black bear doesnt like it, but i cant help it man... it is what it is. lol

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 11:31 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:l know the big black bear doesnt like it, but i cant help it man... it is what it is. lol

Bruce..you holler severe evertime you see a cold front coming from the west lmao

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 11:38 am

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:l know the big black bear doesnt like it, but i cant help it man... it is what it is. lol
Bruce..you holler severe evertime you see a cold front coming from the west

dont think so man, get over it... just going what i see modeled... meg is even on board now... dont get people off guard again toot by down playing this threat, it has even more potential than last. sp has now mention in there 4 to 8 day severe is likely, just waitng on more model agreement... the last event produed ohx most severe outbreak in the month of january. like i said, i will give yall more details as we draw closer to this event

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 11:48 am

Give me a break...im not downplaying anything I was posting what the models showed at the time which was a strung out mess. Models eventually come in line with that system and I jumped on board with you! If you would post some graphics or NWS afds to back up your claims more people would believe you and stop accusing you of crying wolf...lol

At this point I dont see ANY and I do mean ANY severe threats for the state in the near furture. If you would like to post some data to show us this threat we would be more than happy to believe you but right it just sounds like you're blowing smoke
lol!

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 11:54 am

if i could toot, i would be glad to... but hell,all you have to do is go to the freaking ncep site then go to gfs...break down the model all levels of the atmosphere, that said, todays 12zgfs hs this baby now deepening to a 994 mb over central illinois with a negative tilted trough coming in... the 12z gfs says its game on... just waiting for further model runs to pinpoint the type threats and were the most intense area will be... i am not by no means yelling or screaming a severe weather outbreak, just YET. i got my eye on it

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 12:09 pm

Bruce... to copy an AFD all you do is highlight it with your mouse then right click and hit copy. Then you come here and right click in your post and hit paste. Its not hard at all

To post an image you just right click on the image you wish to copy and hit "copy image url" then you come here to your post and right click and hit paste.

After that you put these letters before the link that you pasted in your post

Code:: [img]

and these letters after the link that you pasted

Code:: [/img]

My 7 yo nephew could do that

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-03, 1:11 pm

I think Bruce is talking about this. It has trended more favorable. hr 183 of GFS

february severe Gfs_namer_183_10m_wnd_precip

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-03, 1:20 pm

A STRONGER AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIKELY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECEDE THE STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT REMAINS TOO SOON TO GET
SPECIFIC ON ANY POSSIBLE STORM THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST OF THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 1:33 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:I think Bruce is talking about this. It has trended more favorable. hr 183 of GFS

Yeah I know what he is referring to..but at that range you really cant just look at one operational model. Several ensemble members doesnt support this severe and the Euro has something totally different.

The only way an operational model are any good past 180 hrs is if it has ALOT of support..meaning in agreement with its ensembles and other operational models. Ensembles are good post 180 hrs for identifying stormtracks and synoptic strength of those features.

Operationals come in handy to break all this data down to smaller scales due to thir higher resolution...Ok im done ranting...and this wasnt pointed at anyone..just a personal rant cry

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 1:41 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:A STRONGER AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIKELY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECEDE THE STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT REMAINS TOO SOON TO GET
SPECIFIC ON ANY POSSIBLE STORM THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST OF THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

This is my whole point

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT REMAINS TOO SOON TO GET SPECIFIC ON ANY POSSIBLE STORM THREATS

Things will change esecially since models are over the place with this, But this needs to be watched as yall have alluded to. Not trying to downplay any possible threats

by **andyhb** 2013-02-03, 4:35 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:if i could toot, i would be glad to... but hell,all you have to do is go to the freaking ncep site then go to gfs...break down the model all levels of the atmosphere, that said, todays 12zgfs hs this baby now deepening to a 994 mb over central illinois with a negative tilted trough coming in... the 12z gfs says its game on... just waiting for further model runs to pinpoint the type threats and were the most intense area will be... i am not by no means yelling or screaming a severe weather outbreak, just YET. i got my eye on it

That trough was not negatively tilted...it was neutral/slightly positive tilted. The 06z run is more negatively tilted. Learn to interpret model data please.

And for the bolded part...yes you kinda are...you always do. wacko

I agree that there may be something with this, but Toot is somewhat right (despite maybe coming off as somewhat rude, although you did as well).

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-03, 6:10 pm

andyhb wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:if i could toot, i would be glad to... but hell,all you have to do is go to the freaking ncep site then go to gfs...break down the model all levels of the atmosphere, that said, todays 12zgfs hs this baby now deepening to a 994 mb over central illinois with a negative tilted trough coming in... the 12z gfs says its game on... just waiting for further model runs to pinpoint the type threats and were the most intense area will be... i am not by no means yelling or screaming a severe weather outbreak, just YET. i got my eye on it
That trough was not negatively tilted...it was neutral/slightly positive tilted. The 06z run is more negatively tilted. Learn to interpret model data please.

And for the bolded part...yes you kinda are...you always do.

I agree that there may be something with this, but Toot is somewhat right (despite maybe coming off as somewhat rude, although you did as well).

im not the one that got rude first man, o by the way... i know how to read model data, thanks. have a good day.

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 7:02 pm

Everyone quit getting butthurt over disagreements. This is a wx forum where there are a bunch of posters that have a great amount of knowledge in meteorology. Sometimes two of us dont agree with each other and we try to show the other one that we know more than he or she. Unlike other forums..I encourage that kind of posting because it helps us learn even more. Disagree all you want just dont call anyone names or get too personal. So far this has not went that far. But try to at least know what you are talking about if you're going to engage in one of these disagreements. Carry on men..I love a good clean debate from time

by **Toot** 2013-02-03, 7:07 pm

And bruce Andy is correct and you are wrong...no need to get mad about it. Just learn from it

This is a positive tilt..not a negative one

february severe 2dqj9xz

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-05, 1:09 pm

Still a chance here. Have to see how things trend. MEG continues to mention Severe. Plenty of shear to work with but DPs and instability need to get better IMO. If things hold I think south and west of here have better chances.

february severe Gfs_namer_138_10m_wnd_precip

february severe Gfs_namer_138_10m_wnd_precip

february severe GFS_3_2013020512_F138_SHRM_925_MB

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-05, 6:10 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Still a chance here. Have to see how things trend. MEG continues to mention Severe. Plenty of shear to work with but DPs and instability need to get better IMO. If things hold I think south and west of here have better chances.

whisper, someone mention severe, o my, be carefull LOL. great point dyer... i mentioned it on another forum about the warm sector getting pinched off keeping us out of the better instability parameters, yes it has a chance. got my eye on things

by **Jscentraltn** 2013-02-05, 9:45 pm

Wuh! did you say something? I couldn't here ya come again! LOL!!!! It's going to stay south of us this go around. Enjoy the mild while it last. pffft

by **Toot** 2013-02-09, 9:54 pm

Where the hell is Bruce? A tiny corner of SW TN is JUST barely in the slight risker

I mean you have to look REALLY close to see it lmao

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-09, 10:11 pm

Toot wrote:Where the hell is Bruce? A tiny corner of SW TN is JUST barely in the slight risker

I mean you have to look REALLY close to see it

did i hear someone calling my name?... lol... yeah toot, correct... but not just to overly impressed at the moment with this sytem... better parameteters to me look actually little more south than that... like a line greenwood to tupelo south of there... wind threat should be main show without doubt... got my eye on some bigger fish down the road buddy.

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2013-02-10, 4:18 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:
Toot wrote:Where the hell is Bruce? A tiny corner of SW TN is JUST barely in the slight risker

I mean you have to look REALLY close to see it
did i hear someone calling my name?... lol... yeah toot, correct... but not just to overly impressed at the moment with this sytem... better parameteters to me look actually little more south than that... like a line greenwood to tupelo south of there... wind threat should be main show without doubt... got my eye on some bigger fish down the road buddy.

I saw that fish myself but not gonna mention it. Hell we can't even tell by the models if it is gonna snow 3 days from now. rfl

by **Toot** 2013-02-10, 4:46 pm

Impressive Bow Echo down in Alabama!
february severe 556262_372272302880528_866971753_n

by **tennessee storm09** 2013-02-10, 6:04 pm

there have been at least 2 touchdowns in the kjan forecast area... multiple injuries coming in now as we speak... nice discrete cells in the most unstable enviroment, nice couplets on couple of them as we speak... watch out hattisburgh area