Fall WX Discussion 2013
+13
Grandpa Nasty
John1122
skillsweather
wxgeek
Neals
tennessee storm09
etnwx
Mrgolf
Jed33
Jscentraltn
VFL
windstorm
Toot
17 posters
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Folks atop Mt Leconte, TN woke up to a light snow accumulation and a bone chilling 14 degrees this morning!
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
I like that.
windstorm- Member
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Location : Harrison, tn
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
If the GFS ensembles continue to suggest severe weather for the state around Halloween. The Euro has been back and forth on this and is a little further north taking the severe threat further north also
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
IMBY we had a temp of 32.4 today. Low tonight somewhere in the upper 20's to near 30. Depends on which weatherman you are watching. If we have clear sky i look for it to be a little lower than today. That is if the wind dies down.
windstorm- Member
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Location : Harrison, tn
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Made it to 31 this morning-dropped 4 degrees between 630 and 730 this AM. Thanks to the clouds clearing out at exactly the last hour possible. I expect tonight will be lower, and i'll post later my number in our prediction thread. I want to see how warm we get today and how the clouds behave as they seem to be reforming. I expect that to be temporary though, as the HP moves in, it should squash them later this afternoon.
Jed33- Admin
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Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
27 this morning. Now the wait for the first legit winter threat begins.
John1122- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Sitting at 22 degrees this morning, very frosty out there. Should really accelerate the leaf fall as color peaks this week in my area. Though my walnut trees are bare already.
John1122- Winter Specialist
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Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Well with big high pressure sitting over us this morning clam wind and IMBY i had 26.8. Coldest so far. Growing season down this way is over by about a week or 2 early. Now on to the white stuff.
windstorm- Member
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Temps should be warmer tonight with a forecast of cloudy sky's in most places. Maybe 10 to 15 degress warmer.
windstorm- Member
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Location : Harrison, tn
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Not seeing this fall bright colors of leaves. I was thinking it might be a good year for fall colors since we had plenty of rain this year. Maybe i need to get out and go look. Am sure there are some great colors out there. But not in my yard and the woods behind me. Most are turning brown and falling off.
windstorm- Member
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Location : Harrison, tn
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Monitoring the possibility of a widespread severe wind event late next weekt! Latest euro goes sub 980Mb with a very strong cold front/squall line due to neg tilted sw trough!
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Pants are starting to get tight.Toot wrote:Monitoring the possibility of a widespread severe wind event late next weekt! Latest euro goes sub 980Mb with a very strong cold front/squall line due to neg tilted sw trough!
VFL- Member
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Age : 49
Location : North Knox County
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
also noted... due to the imprressive wind fiellds being modeled... if anything can get going out ahead will have the ability to rotate... initeresting fall setup i have had a eye on for about week... were getting into nam range now... lets see hot shorter range guidance handles itToot wrote:Monitoring the possibility of a widespread severe wind event late next weekt! Latest euro goes sub 980Mb with a very strong cold front/squall line due to neg tilted sw trough!
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Mid to late next week a very strong (Sub 980Mb) mid latitude cyclone will drive a strong cold front through the eastern US. At this time and organized wind threat is a high probability!
Damaging winds will be the main threat but Tornados cannot be ruled out just yet. Details will change somewhat over the next couple of days but I already have enough confidence to issue a graphical outlook on this system.
Just keep checking back for changes and updates on this system.
Damaging winds will be the main threat but Tornados cannot be ruled out just yet. Details will change somewhat over the next couple of days but I already have enough confidence to issue a graphical outlook on this system.
Just keep checking back for changes and updates on this system.
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Some fall foilage
This one I snapped this afternoon in my neighborhood
And this one was taken up on Newfound Gap yesterday
This one I snapped this afternoon in my neighborhood
And this one was taken up on Newfound Gap yesterday
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Incredible shot at Newfound Gap Toot!
Jed33- Admin
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Location : Morristown, TN
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Great Shot. As we are into November now doe s anyone have and ideal what they think this month will be like.? As i stated before WSI tends to go will below normal temps this month but NWS say above. Way in on this if you like.
windstorm- Member
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
CFS says November will wind up below normal for the most part wstrm!windstorm wrote:Great Shot. As we are into November now doe s anyone have and ideal what they think this month will be like.? As i stated before WSI tends to go will below normal temps this month but NWS say above. Way in on this if you like.
From my experience If that happens it usually continues all the way through the winter!
The reason for this is that its progging the Arctic oscillation to drop from here on out to December. If it verifies a Cold November and December would be likely and its been pretty accurate with its longer range progs of oscillations!
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Between yesterday and today the ice and snow really exploded really on all sides of the arctic (north pole). It expanded more then it has in 1 day all year that I have seen. Good sign maybe! '
Btw last year was actually a good year for snow it just stayed all in Canada and didn't go south for whatever reason. And we are around a week ahead of last year in ice and snow coverage in the North pole area so now we just need something to push the snow further south whatever does that lol.
Btw last year was actually a good year for snow it just stayed all in Canada and didn't go south for whatever reason. And we are around a week ahead of last year in ice and snow coverage in the North pole area so now we just need something to push the snow further south whatever does that lol.
skillsweather- Banned
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Age : 32
Location : tennessee Wilson county Ne Corner
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Had several nice showers today. Not really measurable, but neat to see nonetheless. I was in Sevierville today and actually saw a bolt of lightning and heard it thunder-first thunder i've heard in I don't know how long. I don't know how much it rained there though, as the cloud was developing and had already slid east before I heard it thunder. I did read where isolated thunder with small hail was possible, I imagine that was one of those cells. Any ways, when I can, i'll upload a pic. Of the rainbow I got jetr at the house after one of those showers
Jed33- Admin
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
I had a friend in Jefferson City call me and say that it was raining pretty good for about 5 minutes and that there was very small hail falling to the ground too. I was surprised by this, but when NWS confirmed that hail was falling in some spots in their AFD.
IceMan23- Member
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Rainbow after a shower here at the house today
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Jed33- Admin
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Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Very beautiful pic! Thanks for sharing.
IceMan23- Member
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
if the gfs is to be trusted... it be quite bit warmer than average...also starting to bite on a severe weather event though itsstill on the edge of voodo land... buts its been very consistent with itToot wrote:CFS says November will wind up below normal for the most part wstrm!windstorm wrote:Great Shot. As we are into November now doe s anyone have and ideal what they think this month will be like.? As i stated before WSI tends to go will below normal temps this month but NWS say above. Way in on this if you like.
From my experience If that happens it usually continues all the way through the winter!
The reason for this is that its progging the Arctic oscillation to drop from here on out to December. If it verifies a Cold November and December would be likely and its been pretty accurate with its longer range progs of oscillations!
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
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Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013
Good mornin wx nerds and those who genrally just like to argue about the weather. There will be one more strong cold front before a strong mid November warmup commences!
However I dont expect the warmup to last very long before Old Man winter blows in to stay! So.. since this is likely the last warm weather you will see for many months you may want to enjoy it.
Above is the American model (GFS) showing the warm temps moving in mid month with temps anywhere from 8-15 degrees above normal!
However I dont expect the warmup to last very long before Old Man winter blows in to stay! So.. since this is likely the last warm weather you will see for many months you may want to enjoy it.
Above is the American model (GFS) showing the warm temps moving in mid month with temps anywhere from 8-15 degrees above normal!
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