Winter Outlook for 2014/15

From AccuWeather.com:



Interesting. Hope it verifies!

From Weather.com:



WSI forecasters point to an early buildup of snow cover across Eurasia -- and especially southern Siberia -- as a possible hint that the jet stream will behave erratically this winter.

The forecasters note that recent scientific research, pioneered by Dr. Judah Cohen of the Atmospheric and Earth Research division of Verisk Analytics, shows a strong connection between October snow cover in Siberia and breakdowns in the stratospheric polar vortex during the mid-winter months. The authors believe the early snow cover may cause a tighter temperature gradient over Asia, strengthening the jet stream. Eventually that momentum may work its way up into the stratosphere, which in turn would knock weather patterns off balance around the Northern Hemisphere several months later.

WSI forecasters looked at several other technical indices and long-range computer models that also point to an above-average chance of blocking patterns in the northern latitudes -- the kind of patterns that can force bitterly cold air from the polar and Arctic regions southward into the U.S.

WSI says that, based on conditions over the Pacific Ocean, the West Coast is more likely to be protected from those intrusions by a northward bulge in the jet stream -- known as a high-pressure ridge -- and that those cold air intrusions are more likely to be pointing toward the East Coast and the Deep South instead.
Forecast Highlights

Here is an overview of the WSI forecasts for the next three months over the Lower 48. (Note: November is not included in the winter forecast above, and WSI has not released a separate breakout for February.)

November: Slightly cooler than average from New Mexico to Michigan to Georgia and points in between. Warmer than average elsewhere, but especially for the West Coast states plus Nevada, Idaho, and Montana.

December: Slightly cooler than average for Colorado, New Mexico, the Plains states from Nebraska to Texas, and the lower Mississippi River Valley. Warmer than average elsewhere, but especially in California and southern Nevada as well as the East Coast states from North Carolina to New England.

January: Cooler than average from Texas to Wisconsin and points eastward, but particularly cool from the southeast half of Texas east to the Florida Panhandle and inland as far north as the southern tip of Illinois. Warmer than average elsewhere, but especially over the Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern parts of California, Nevada, and Utah.

Firsthand Weather (Amateur Forecast) :



http://firsthandweather.com/396/firsthand-weathers-final-2014-15-winter-forecast/

I'm just tossing these forecasts I have found out there. There are plenty more on the web. I'm looking forward to Toot's. Here's to hoping for another epic winter

I agree. Hoping for a winter somewhat like last year. I had a low of 3 degrees and a snowfall total of 9 inches.

Hell it looks like winter has already started..lol ive been so busy and then when I get a little free time there is trackable winter threats. Maybe I will get the time this weekend but then again a couple model runs today suggested another snow..haha

Here one of our local weathermen putting out his winter forecast for Chattanooga and other areas.  http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/27176580/paul-barys-winter-weather-outlook

Here is my winter outlook

All signals point towards cold and snowy winter for eastern United States and thats exactly what I am forecasting. Not expecting the brutal and almost stationary cold (still plenty cold this winter tho) that we felt last winter but more snow than last over the eastern U.S


Atmosheric and Oceanic factors


The Arctic Oscillation (AO)

The AO averaged more than negative 1.00..my own research tells me that when this happens the majority of the time its a very cold winter that follows. The last time the AO was this negative during the month of October was 2009 and we all know how that winter turned out. The AO is a state of the atmosphere over the Arctic and It runs both in a positive phase and a negative phase.  In the negative phase, the low pressure system over the north pole (known as the polar vortex or PV) is weaker due to stratospheric warming.

This dislodges the polar vortex and causes many pieces of it to travel very far south in latitude. This means Arctic air and storm tracks are pushed further south too.


Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

The PDO for the last several months has run in a positive phase due to the warm waters observed over the northern pacific and off the Pacific Northwest.

When both the PDO and ENSO are in the warm phase the expected impacts in the eastern U.S are

Below average winter temperatures
Above average winter precipitation



Snow Advance Index (SAI)

Research tells us above normal snowfall and coverage over Eurasia and Canada in the early fall months support a colder pattern across the eastern U.S. It also tells us to expect many days with Arctic cold!!

Snow coverage this year reached the 3rd highest since records have been kept!!


El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO status is leaning towards a weak El Nino whic is also the most favorable status for cold and snowy on the east coast. This also enhances the southern jet stream which means much gulf like moisture to work with


Analog Winter

I have Chosen the winter of 2009-10 due to many atmosheric and oceanic conditions that are nearly the same. I expect the winter pattern will behave in a similar fasihion as it did in 2009-10

According too that map it puts me in more snow. Our local weatherman also say's more snow to. Thanks for your forecast. Most weathermen are going with colder and more snow this year. Which if that happens we will have a active southern track this coming winter.

WATE 6 Storm Team Chief Meteorologist Matt Hinkin predicts 14 to 18 inches of snow in Knoxville this year.

Winter is still a month and a half away, and yet nearly two feet of snow has already fallen on and near the mountains.

It's hard to forget last winter when we received far more than average snow, and the phrase "polar vortex" entered the vocabulary of East Tennessee.

Where does that cold air come from? It may sound weird, but the snow cover on the other side of the world may reveal what our winter will be like in East Tennessee.

Compared with last year, there is even more snow cover in the arctic regions of Russia. All we need is a chunk or two of cold air to break off and follow the jet stream, sliding down over Alaska into Canada and down to the continental United States, and all the way down to the southeast. That snow pack on the other side of the world could actually help us have a colder than average winter.

http://www.wate.com/story/27320161/6-storm-team-chief-meteorologist-matt-hinkin-predicts-14-to-18-inches-of-snow-in-knoxville-this-year

It's getting to be that time of year where we start looking ahead to winter weather. Chief Meteorologist Todd Howell joined us to break down what we can expect and what we've seen in past years.

Outlier?

I haven't seen a Winter forecast from channel 8, but Heather did have Nature's Winter Predictions segment that includes a video that I was unable to insert in this post.

You may have heard an old wives' tales or folklore about how nature predicts the coming winter, fog, wooly worms, acorns, squirrel nests, and more.

http://www.local8now.com/home/headlines/Ask-Heather---natures-winter-predictions-277717381.html

This is from Dr. Judah Cohen who is a pioneer in seasonal forecasting. He also happens to have the best track record out there for winter forecasts!

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere in Dec-Jan-Feb 2014/2015 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting cold for much of the Central and Eastern United States and Northern Eurasia, with warm in Western North America, Southern Europe and North Africa. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. The strongest signal in the model is the October Siberian snow cover, which is the second highest ever observed in the record. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.

Every time! it is amazing to see how wrong the models are when showing the warm ups.. Just a couple days ago my forecast from local weather men for this week coming up were showing upper 50s for highs to lower 40s for lows. That's not going to be the case! I'm seeing 20s at night and 40s for highs.. The models continue to trend colder and colder within a couple days, so the long range for me is no good!

I could and have been wrong many times but think if we have the change to colder weather it should start maybe around Christmas week or shortly after that. JMO.

Even after whatever happens mon night - tue night, snow showers flurries whatever the case.... There is another bowling ball coming in from the sw that will likely pull colder air back in going into the following week... So other than a warm up to norms for that weekend.. It will get colder again... Then after that I think the pattern is going to set and hold for a cold and active period........    

Man it's dead on here! Anyways Im getting very excited, all the warmth that should have come I haven't seen it. The winter is starting to setup, all the signs are showing up now! It's going to get very busy soon. A lot less sleep, maybe a lot more post from some....

It's funny! I was just looking at the twc, now they have a chance for above normal temp. So now you have a 20 percent chance of rain with a 35 to 50 percent chance of above normal temp for the next 10 to 15 days... This is saying anyone can be a meteorologist, it's not the case!! Just like with my job I have to prepare my self get rest so on and so on.. With them they can just wake up look at one model run say yep that's it here's my forecast and be wrong all the time... So now let's just say it might be hot it might be cold.... Anyway my rant for the day!!!!!!

Alright guys! Ready for the hype here it is...... I looked at the 12z GFS and the 50 members of the ensemble of the euro. It shows most if not all of tn getting some good snow the weekend before Christmas and on Christmas eve and day..... 2 wks away. I'm calling it. It's a white Christmas this year. Ha! Any responses?         

In the long range look, things are starting to line up for a cold winter. How cold? Have no ideal. Will it happen ? I sure hope so. I take some Snow for Christmas anytime...

I've got my fingers crossed for snow 20th/21st and 23rd/24th for Eastern Tennessee. We'll be making our annual Christmas trip to Gatlinburg on the 19th. Got the snow chains ready for Ski Mountain Rd. just in case...Hope that doesn't jinx it.

I am pumped. I enjoy any chance to have snow. I also just like the winter season. This site will get going soon.

This looks kind of nice, but we know it will change. And besides we are looking at something 2 weeks out. Stay tune.  http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_372_1000_500_thick.gif