Feb 5-6 2013 BIG DOG WOOF WOOF (FAILED)

Well I see the band of snow associated with the front and the moisture on the gulf this AM. The first thing that comes to mind is snow, but I guess it's just not meant to be this time. I guess our northern energy is just not going to dig far enough SW and our vort along the front is too far NE to draw up substantial moisture from the gulf. That being said, still looks like some light accum possible along the front overnight, but again light meaning no more than an inch. Oh well guess we'll take what we can get and hope for another opportunity before the month is done.

Noticed a slight nw movement of moisture and low position on the 12nam. Im at work so havent had time to look at the RUC which is usually the best when it comes to picking up last minute trends. It may actually interact enough to give the nc border counties a nice thump. Get to go home early today to monitor this system by the hour...gonna be interesting to watch it unfold

Got some precip breaking out in Arkansas with the upper level energy responsible for the surface low in the gulf. Models show this dyding off as everything gets shunted eastward..u know me tho... I have my doubts about that...and EVERY model out there says I AM WRONG!!

WRF model shows that precip. and holds the band together to sweep across the state. Doesn't look like much, but it holds it together.

Yeah it shows the cold front absorbing it but it would make more sense to me if it moved with the southern stream upper low which is what the precip is associated with. The upper low is clearly seen on water vapor loops

So how do you think the valley will do with this system. I know they have already treated the roads in most of Dandridge.

underdawg45 wrote:So how do you think the valley will do with this system. I know they have already treated the roads in most of Dandridge.

If the northern stream system dont pull the gulf mositure further north (which the models dont show) then it will be light dusting to an inch or so

Pull baby Pull

That is a cool animation Toot. I see what you are talking about. Maybe it will make a difference for us. I can only hope.

Its to the point now that if it did pull it further north it would just be the upper low or deformation band that hit us. WHich would be awesome but ive yet to see the upper low have any northward movement to it YET!! Right now its doing exactly what models progged..moving due east when we need it to have more of a ENE movement! Not caving in yet..im still monitoring and im going down with ship if she sinks..lol

Even if I dont see a flake of snow this is a VERY interesting setup to a weather nerd like me and I can set here and dig deep into analysis of a setup like this without getting bored..lol




The core of the upper level low is pretty intense..so much so that its trying to create an eye feature around it!! We want this precip to grow outward from the core itself if it were to affect us. The NAM tracks the core/vort max thru middle GA and SC




You can also see the eye feature trying to develop very clearly around the upper level low via water vapor!! Again we want this precip to grow rapidly..lol




Now Ive also noticed a sudden and quick northward movement of the precip shield from the gulf system. Its as if it just now felt the tug from the northern stream energy..but again this just could be a blip that will die down..whew I hope not!!!

Any new thoughts Toot? Seems like a good bit more gulf tap in AR and MS even W TN?

Looks like this big dog got spanked good, and is yelping while running home with its tail tucked between its legs.

FAIL

Just turrible..lol I dont think I ever seen a flake!!

I saw a few flakes driving to work out of Campbell Co. this morning. It is okay. Ya'll still do a good job forecasting! You win some and you lose some.